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Disruptive Demographics: Implications for K-12 and Higher Education in Alabama

February 2014. Disruptive Demographics: Implications for K-12 and Higher Education in Alabama . James H. Johnson, Jr. Allan Parnell Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise Kenan-Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. OVERVIEW.

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Disruptive Demographics: Implications for K-12 and Higher Education in Alabama

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  1. February 2014 Disruptive Demographics: Implications for K-12 and Higher Education in Alabama James H. Johnson, Jr. Allan Parnell Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise Kenan-Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

  2. OVERVIEW • Demographic Trends • Challenges & Opportunities • Discussion

  3. CENSUS 2010 what will REVEAL February 2014

  4. 6 DISRUPTIVE TRENDS • The South Rises – Again • The Browning of America • Marrying Out is “In” • The Silver Tsunami is About to Hit • The End of Men? • Cooling Water from Grandma’s Well… and Grandpa’s Too!

  5. The South Continues To Rise ...Again!

  6. SOUTH’S SHARE OF U.S. NET POPULATION GROWTH, SELECTED YEARS, 1910-2010

  7. U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY REGION, 2000-2010

  8. SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, 2000-2010

  9. STATE SHARE OF SOUTH’S NET GROWTH, 2000-2010

  10. Migration-Induced Population Change Domestic and International

  11. NET MIGRATION TRENDS, 2000-2008 = Net Import = Net Export

  12. GROSS AND NET MIGRATION FOR THE SOUTH, 2004-2010

  13. U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY REGION, 2010-2013

  14. SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, 2010-2013

  15. STATE SHARES OF SOUTH’S NET GROWTH, 2010-2013

  16. A Brief Immigration History

  17. The Numbers Legal Immigrants Refugees, Parolees, Asylees

  18. The Numbers Cont’d

  19. NON-IMMIGRANTS ADMITTED TO UNITED STATES, SELECTED YEARS, 1981-2011

  20. U.S. Immigrant Population, 1900-2011

  21. U.S. Foreign Born Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2011

  22. THE “BROWNING” OF AMERICA

  23. U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY RACE & ETHNICITY, 2000-2010

  24. NON-WHITE AND HISPANIC SHARES OF POPULATION GROWTH, 2000-2010

  25. MEDIAN AGE OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE, HISPANIC ORIGIN & GENDER, 2009

  26. MEDIAN AGE AND FERTILITY RATES FOR FEMALES IN SOUTH, 2005-2010

  27. RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE / ETHNICITY Source: Pew Research Center, 2008 *projected.

  28. TOTAL FERTILITY RATES OF U.S. WOMEN BY RACE/ETHNICITY, 2007 Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010)

  29. RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. BIRTHS BY RACE / ETHNICITY Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010); Tavernise (2011).

  30. RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE / ETHNICITY Source: Pew Research Center, 2008 *projected.

  31. ALABAMA POPULATION CHANGE BY RACE & ETHNICITY, 2000-2010

  32. SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH, ALABAMA, 2000-2010

  33. MEDIAN AGE & FERTILITY RATES FOR FEMALES IN ALABAMA 2005-2009 . • Source: American Community Survey • *Women 15 to 50 with births in past 12 months

  34. Marrying Out is “In”

  35. INTERMARRIAGE TREND, 1980-2008 % Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity

  36. EDUCATION & INTERMARRIAGE % of Newlyweds Who Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity, 2008

  37. INTERMARRIAGE TYPES Newly Married Couples in 2008

  38. INTERMARRIAGE RATES BY RACE & ETHNICITY% of Newlyweds Who Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity, 2008

  39. THE SILVER TSUNAMI

  40. U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE, 2000-2009

  41. U.S. POPULATION TURNING 50, 55, 62, AND 65 YEARS OF AGE, (2007-2015)

  42. THE GREYING OF AMERICA U.S. Census Projections

  43. ABSOLUTE AND PERCENT CHANGE IN U.S. POPULATION BY AGE

  44. OLDER WORKERS IN U.S. WORKFORCE

  45. POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE IN THE SOUTH, 2000-2010

  46. GENERATIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF SOUTH’S POPULATION BY RACE/ETHNICITY, 2010

  47. ALABAMA ABSOLUTE POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE, 2000-2010

  48. The End of Men?

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