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Environmental Scanning: what it is and how to do it. Welcome to the Webinar We’ll be starting shortly…. Environmental Scanning: what it is and how to do it. Maree Conway Thinking Futures. …. using futures approaches to integrate strategic thinking into strategy development and planning.

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environmental scanning what it is and how to do it

Environmental Scanning: what it is and how to do it

Welcome to the Webinar

We’ll be starting shortly…

slide4

What ES is and why do it

  • ES and strategy
  • Getting started with ES
  • Back to work
slide7

ES is the art of systematically exploring and interpreting the external environment,

  • to better understand the nature of trends and deep drivers of change
  • and their likely future impact on your organisation.
slide9

Environmental Scanning (ES) is the foundation for high quality strategic thinking…

  • …that informs the development of futures ready strategy for an organisation.
slide10

Futures ready strategy is flexible strategy that readies an organisation to respond to the challenges of the future.

quick survey
Quick Survey

How many of you have formal scanning systems operational in your organisations?

why a scanning system
Why a Scanning System?
  • To strengthen the quality of the thinking that goes into your strategy development
  • To let you understand what’s coming and what’s changing and what it means for you
  • To give you enough time to prepare and be proactive
  • To give you a competitive edge
  • To move you beyond busy - out of crisis management mode
slide14

Current strategy processes tend to focus on the plan as the major outcome, rather than a shared understanding of your organisation’s preferred future to inform action today.

slide16

Making VU 2016: A Statement of Purpose

Strategic vision and objectives

Current until 2016

  • Internal & External Planning Inputs
  • Ongoing environmental scanning
  • Educational & societal trends
  • Government policy drivers
  • Legislation
  • University cross-sectoral strategies
  • Other University Plans (eg OHS, Disability, Staff Equity etc)

University Priorities

2008-2010

Outcomes & Strategies to implement

Reviewed each year in first half of year

Unit Strategic Plans

2008-2010

Faculties, Schools

& Service areas

Implementation of University Priority strategies

University Budget Process

Iterative process to align budgets and plans

Budget sign-off at end September

Quarterly Budget Reviews

Reviewed and updated in August/September; finalised following QIRs in November

Department Plans

Improvement action identified/changes to plans identified

SPDP: individual Staff Plans

QIR Inputs

Organisational Unit QIR Portfolios

Faculty Review Outcomes

Annual Course Reporting

Course Review

Subject Evaluation Outcomes

AQTF outcomes

AUQA Follow up

Quality Improvement Reviews (QIRs)

Approval of operational plans

Review of current year’s performance

Held in November each year

slide23

While the need for planning has never been greater, the relevance of most of today’s planning systems and tools is increasingly marginal (Fuller, 2003).

slide24

It may well be that the typical strategic planning exercise now conducted on a regular and formal basis and infused with quantitative data misses the essence of the concept of strategy and what is involved in thinking strategically (Sidorowicz, 2000).

slide25

A major assumption of the strategic planning literature … is that all of these terms [strategy, planning] necessarily go together. [That is] Strategy formation is a planning process, designed or supported by planners, to plan in order to produce plans” (Mintzberg, 1994).

slide27

Current strategy processes live in the pragmatic futures realm.

  • Working within the existing paradigm, making it better, but not challenging it.
  • We call it ‘strategic planning’.
slide28

Beyond strategic planning – to strategy development and implementation.

  • Moving into the progressive futures realm, where we challenge the current paradigm and re-interpret how we do business to meet the challenges of the future.
slide29

Moving from pragmatic to progressive approaches requires a strong focus on building a high quality strategic thinking capacity in your organisation.

slide30

We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.

slide34

If you don’t spend the time to improve the quality of the thinking that goes into your strategic decisions, then you will get superficial, limited and ultimately useless strategy.

slide37

BIG

DEEP

LONG

slide39

Take a big picture, systems perspective…our micro-decisions coalesce to create global futures

slide44

UNCERTAINTY

High

Usual Planning Timeframe

(3-5 years)

The linear future is the one we believe to be true, usually based on untested assumptions

Trend

Linear Future

Low

Today

TIME

Future

slide45

UNCERTAINTY

High

Usual Planning Timeframe

(3-5 years)

Possible Futures

Trend

Linear Future

Low

Today

TIME

Future

slide46

UNCERTAINTY

High

Usual Planning Timeframe

(3-5 years)

Possible Futures

Trend

Linear Future

Low

Today

TIME

Future

the external environment
The External Environment

Social Environment

Driving

Forces

Industry

Environment

Factors / Trends Issues / Forces

Social

Technological

Economic

Ecological

Political

Suppliers

Organisation

Customers

Clients

Competitors

Members of Wider Society

Driving

Forces

Adapted from K. van der Heijden

slide50

Industry

Educational

Gaming

Learning

Organisation

Students

Online

Suppliers

Stakeholders

Sustainability

Engagement

Vocational

Imperative

Funding

slide51

Globalisation

Technology

Global

Demographics &

generational change

Industry

Educational

Gaming

Learning

Organisation

Lifestyle

Online

Environment

Sustainability

Engagement

Values

Vocational

Imperative

Funding

Economy

Politics

slide52

Wildcard

Globalisation

Technology

Global

Wildcard

Demographics&

generational change

Wildcard

Industry

Educational

Gaming

Learning

Organisation

Lifestyle

Online

Environment

Sustainability

Engagement

Values

Wildcard

Vocational

Imperative

Funding

Economy

Politics

slide54

Things Happening

Trend

(grouping of events)

Driver

(moves trends in certain directions, broad in scope and long term in nature)

slide55

When you start scanning, you will find lots of things happening

Things Happening

Trend

(grouping of events)

Driver

(moves trends in certain directions, broad in scope and long term in nature)

slide57

Gradually, you will be able to group similar ‘hits’ into broader categories – trends.

Things Happening

Trend

(grouping of events)

Driver

(moves trends in certain directions, broad in scope and long term in nature)

slide59

What we are really interested in exploring is what is driving these trends.

Things Happening

Trend

(grouping of events)

Driver

(moves trends in certain directions, broad in scope and long term in nature)

slide60

And this is where the connections between the trends will surface and it will start to make sense.

slide65

Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends

Late Majority

Number of cases; degree of public awareness

Laggards

Mainstream

Late Adopters

Trends

EmergingIssues

Few cases,

local focus

Early adopters

Innovators

Today

Time

Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years

Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers

slide66

Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends

Government Institutions

Newspapers, magazines, websites, journals, blogs

Late Majority

Number of cases; degree of public awareness

Laggards

Scientists, artists, radicals, mystics

Mainstream

Late Adopters

Trends

EmergingIssues

Few cases,

local focus

Early adopters

Innovators

Today

Time

Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years

Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers

slide67

Most scanning takes place here

Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends

Government Institutions

Newspapers, magazines, websites, journals, blogs

Late Majority

Number of cases; degree of public awareness

Laggards

Scientists, artists, radicals, mystics

Mainstream

Late Adopters

Trends

EmergingIssues

Few cases,

local focus

Early adopters

Innovators

Today

Time

Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years

Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers

slide68

But we need to look on the fringe as well

Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends

Government Institutions

Newspapers, magazines, websites, journals,blogs

Late Majority

Number of cases; degree of public awareness

Laggards

Scientists, artists, radicals, mystics

Mainstream

Late Adopters

Trends

EmergingIssues

Few cases,

local focus

Early adopters

Innovators

Today

Time

Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years

Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers

where to look1
Where to look…
  • Newspapers, twitter, websites, blogs, wikis, podcasts, videos, news sites, newsletter, magazines, books, book reviews, presentations, reports, surveys, interviews, seminars, chat rooms, trend observers, advertisers, philosophers sociologists, management gurus, consultants, researchers, experts, universities.

Shaping Tomorrow

slide70

If you’re looking for new ideas that don’t yet exist, don’t talk to normal people because they’re just consuming what is available today – find the weirdos and see what they are doing, what they’re making on their own, and say gee – is there something I can mainstream from this?

Tom Kelly

Founder, Ideo

slide71

Trends

Whatever takes you away from conventional thinking…

The weird and unimaginable

Emerging Issues

some scanning sites
Some Scanning Sites
  • Shaping Tomorrow
  • Trendwatching
  • Brain Reserve
  • Now and Next
  • The Tomorrow Project
  • Strategic Business Insights
  • Arlington Institute
looking for
Looking for…
  • What is happening today with your issue?
  • What are other people saying about its evolution over time? How credible are they?
looking for1
Looking for…
  • New, first
  • Idea
  • Change
  • Surprise
  • Opportunity
  • Threat
  • Diversity of perspectives
looking for2
Looking for…
  • Ideally, a scan hit identifies an emerging issue that is objectively new even to experts, confirms or is confirmed by additional scan hits, and that has been identified in time for social dialogue, impact assessment, and policy formation.

Wendy Schultz, Infinite Futures 2004

as you scan
As you scan…
  • What are the major driving forces?
  • What big surprises are on the horizon?
  • What are possible discontinuities (wildcards)?
  • What are the sources of inspiration and hope?

Richard Slaughter, Foresight International

as you scan1
As you scan…
  • If you think …‘that’s rubbish’, stop.
  • First, ask why do I think it’s rubbish?
  • Second, take another look.
  • Third, ask what would enable you to accept it as possible? Scan to see if that is happening.
slide80

Social

Technological

Environmental

Economic

STEEP or add in Values

to make it VERY STEEP (VSTEEP)*

Political

*Marcus Barber, Looking Up, Feeling Good

slide82

Does the hit help you understand your issue?

  • Does the hit identify a new way of seeing the issue?
  • Does the hit help you to explore trends and their potential impacts?

Shaping Tomorrow

slide83

Does the hit aim to identify and assess possible future threats and opportunities, including radical alternatives?

  • Does the hit challenge existing assumptions underpinning current polices and practice?

Shaping Tomorrow

slide84

Ultimately, you need to trust your intuition – your expertise, knowledge and insight is the best gauge of usefulness.

  • But, remember your blind spots!
what to record
What to Record
  • Title
  • Summary
  • Source and date published
  • Initial assessment of implications
  • Tag/VSTEEP category
slide87

For example (taken from SCAN, a publication by Strategic Business Insights)

  • 2009-01-03 Streaming Video and Security (Information Week Daily 26 November 2001), describes the shift of Packet Video (a developer of video streaming technology) from consumer to security applications. The company’s technology could provide live feeds from the cockpits of hijacked planes.
slide90

A snapshot report of the external environment.

  • A background paper for the strategic planning cycle.
  • Regular trend reports on single trends.
  • More detailed quarterly reports on implications of trends and drivers.
  • Quick snippets about what you are finding.
  • Rating the hits – staff involvement.
  • In all cases, add in trigger questions to prompt discussion/conversation.
slide91

What impact might it have on your industry today and in the future?

  • What might be the implications for your organisation?
  • How might you respond?
slide96

Never underestimate your influence.

  • Make it part of your deliverables.
  • Look for ‘friendlies’.
  • Start local.
slide97

Have good organisational diagnostics: can smell the cheese, but will jump ship.

Get it, and can use the system – very rare.

Don’t bother – they are waiting for you to fail!

They will follow you blindly – just like lemmings!

Andy Hines, An Audit for Organizational Futurists: 10 Questions Every Organizational Futurist Should be Able to Answer, 2003

slide98

Long term

Uncertain

Divergent

Incomplete

Beyond linear

Disruption

slide102
Individual

Scanning

Organisational Scanning

Conscious

Explicit

Collective

Unconscious

Implicit

Solitary

slide103

The aim of scanning work is to provide robust information that strengthens your understanding of your organisation’s long term context…

  • …to enable you to make wise strategic decisions today.
slide107

Download Building Strategic Futures Guides:

    • Getting Started with Futures
    • Environmental Scanning

http://thinkingfutures.net/resources/building-strategic-futures-guides/

slide108

Contact Details

Maree Conway

http://www.thinkingfutures.net

maree.conway@thinkingfutures.net

Tel: + 61 3 9016 9506

Mobile: + 61 425 770 181

Skype: mkconway1

Shaping Tomorrow

http://www.shapingtomorrow.com

Foresight Network

http://shapingtomorrowmain.ning.com