Anticipated Changes in NC’s Older Population: Preparation

1. Anticipated Changes in NC’s Older Population: Preparation Presented to the NC Study Commission on Aging Jim Mitchell, Ph.D. Associate Director, UNC Institute on Aging Director, Center on Aging, ECU, Brody School of Medicine

2. Immigrationand Change in NC’s Older Adult Population For decades, developers have marketed the appeal of NC’s coastal, mountains, and sand hills areas to retirement eligible populations. Ultimately, all water-adjacent counties and municipalities will likely feel the effects of this trend.

3. Currituck Elizabeth City Gates Camden Hertford Perquimans Southern Shores Pasquotank Chowan Kill Devil Hills Bertie Edenton Nags Head Washington Tyrrell Dare Belhaven Washington Hyde Beaufort Craven Dare Pamlico Oriental Hyde New Bern Carteret Onslow Beaufort Morehead City Pender Atlantic Beach Cape Carteret Surf City Emerald Isle Topsail Beach Brunswick New Hanover Estimated Percent Change In County Populations Aged 60 to 69 Years from 1990 to 2010 5 to 33 Wilmington 33 to 65 Carolina Beach Shallotte 65 to 101 750 101 to 142 500 250 Ocean Bordering Counties 100 10 Coastal Interior Counties Percent Change in Elderly Populations In the Coastal Counties of Eastern North Carolina Observed Percent Change In Municipal Populations Aged 65+ Years from 1980 to 2000 Center for Health Services Research and Development East Carolina University Greenville, NC Data Source: NC State Data Center LINC

4. Why Do Older People Move? Move 1:In early retirement, higher-income relatively healthy people move for amenity reasons (vacation destinations) in combination with friendship networks. Psychologically committed to a move. Amenity-related services. Move 2:Anticipating or experiencing disability or widowhood; move closer to children. In-home or community-based assistance. Move 3:Move to institutional settings in response to declining health or sudden-onset events compromising independence. Institutional or in-home skilled care.

5. Whatdo we know about older movers? Don Bradley (Sociology Department), with colleagues, analyzed data from 2000 U.S. Census five-percent Public Use Micro-data Areas comprising coastal NC. Each Area includes 100,000 persons and over, creating clusters of coastal counties. The data come from people completing the “long Census form” for their household.

6. Top Sending States for Interstate Migrants to Coastal North Carolina, Aged 60+ 1995-2000 Source: 2000 US census, Five-Percent PUMS

7. Non-South Origin and Nativity of Interstate Migrants Aged 60+ 1995-2000, Source: 2000 US census, Five-Percent PUMS

8. Population Aged 60+ in Coastal Counties by Mobility Status Reported Disability Source: 2000 US census, Five-Percent PUMS

9. How do Interstate Migrants Aged 60+ Compare with Stable Residents Aged 60+? • Migrants are younger than stable residents (average age 66 compared to 70). • Migrants are more likely than stable residents to be married and less likely to be widowed. • Migrants are better-educated than stable residents (33% college degree compared to 13%). • Migrants are less likely to be disabled than stable residents (26.5% compared to 44%). • Migrants and stable residents are equally likely to live in a single-family detached residence. • Average household income of migrants is higher than that of stable residents ($59,449 compared to 37,926). • Average owner-occupied property value of migrants is substantially higher than that of migrants ($193,908 compared to $116,608).

10. Older Migrants Are Not All Alike • Do repeat seasonal vacationers become retired immigrants? • Do healthy later-life migrants return home with the onset of disability, do they move closer to sources of assistance, or do they stay in their destination communities? • What draws older immigrants to different destinations (colonial history; ecological education; restaurant and entertainment availability and affordability; fishing, sailing, or other recreational opportunities; and a comparatively relaxed pace)? • Do older immigrants expect and request publicly-supported services beyond short-term benefits accrued from asset relocation and investment? • What is the effect of immigration on the sustainability of local ways of life (e.g., Ocracoke watermen’s coop to preserve the only remaining fish house on silver lake, local efforts to preserve watermen’s access to the Marshallburg harbor, or the impact of rising tax values on Hyde and Beaufort County family farms)?

11. Preparedness is A Process Migration among older people is fluid and changing. The dynamics, or reasons why older people move, their destinations, their resources, and the type of assistance they require varies. Consequently, preparedness is viewed best as an on-going process fostering informed decisions about the allocation of resources to meet varying needs.

12. Proposed Retirement Migration Initiative:A Sustained Cooperative Effort of the UNC Institute on Aging and the NC Division of Aging and Adult Services Steering Committee NC Division of Aging & Adult Services UNC Institute on Aging Aging Migration Initiative East Carolina University UNC Partners Local and State Government & Policy Constituencies Chambers of Commerce Area Agencies on Aging

13. Aging Migration Initiative East Carolina University The Initiative supports the on-going study of the dynamics and the impact of retirement migration. Researchers representing multiple disciplines (Sociology, Anthropology, Economics, Political Science, Geography, Marine Resources, etc.) across campuses would participate in projects to describe and understand the consequences of migration of older people. Resulting information will be shared publicly and with entities responsible for state and local policy and resource allocation. The advantage of this approach is that it is proactive, grounded in the anticipated consequences of inaction, rather than reactive.