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Skills in the West Midlands Economy A Black Country Perspective BCTG Equality and Diversity Conference Mike Bell, LSC Area Director, Black Country and Staffordshire. Welcome. Please raise your hands if you wish to commit economic and social suicide Does it make economic sense to….?.

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  1. Skills in the West Midlands Economy A Black Country Perspective BCTG Equality and Diversity Conference Mike Bell, LSC Area Director, Black Country and Staffordshire Welcome

  2. Please raise your hands if you wish to commit economic and social suicide Does it make economic sense to….?

  3. The Seven Areas of Equality • Ethnicity • Gender • Disability • Age • Faith • Sexual Orientation • Transgender

  4. West Midlands - Estimated Resident Population (16-64) by Ethnic Group (000s) Source: Office for National Statistics (Resident Population Estimates, mid-2006, experimental statistics)

  5. Total Population by Gender Source: Population Estimates 2007

  6. 6.8 million disabled people of working age in Britain, yet only 50% of disabled people in employment compared to 81% of non-disabled people • 18% of working age population in England • 18.5% of working age population in West Midlands • 602,500 people in West Midlands

  7. Lord Leitch’s Review of Skills and Government Response • UK doing well, but not well enough by 2020 • Step change needed in skills levels • Public money must focus; private sector must invest • Provision should be demand-led • Maximise all sources of skills

  8. Short-term – slowing/reduction in employment, but demand for skillsMedium-term - growth in employment, and demand for skills Demand Issues

  9. Projections of Regional Employment Change 2007-2017: by Sector Source: Working Futures III

  10. Projections of Regional Employment Change 2007-2017: by Sector Source: Working Futures III

  11. Regional Workforce by Sector and Age

  12. West Midlands Employment by Occupation and Gender 2008 Source: Annual Population Survey 2008

  13. Black Country Net Employment Change 2007-2017 Source: Working Futures III

  14. Proportion of Sector Workforce that is Non-White in 2007

  15. Regional Employment Change 2007-2017: Net New Jobs Source: Working Futures III

  16. Regional Employment Change 2007-2017: Overall Demand Source: Working Futures III

  17. Employment Projections 2004-2014 • 940,000 replacement jobs across the region • 90,000 new jobs (distributed geographically on graph) Source: LSC/ SSDA Working Futures

  18. Employment Projections 2007-2017 • 984,000 replacement jobs across the region • 125,000 new jobs (distributed geographically on graph) Source: Working Futures III

  19. The quality and availability of skilled labour remains challenging, despite immediate economic circumstances Supply Issues

  20. Minority Ethnic Composition of the West Midlands 2001-2005 Source: ONS Estimated resident population by ethnic group and sex, mid-2005, (experimental statistics)

  21. Indices of Multiple Deprivation 2007: Concentrations of Deprivation Source: IMD 2007

  22. Deprivation within Black Country

  23. The Region has the third highest number of SOAs in the most deprived 10% in England 28% of the Black Country’s SOAs in national 10% most deprived Source: IMD 2004 Source: IMD 2004

  24. Economic Status of Working Age Populations Source: APS 2007

  25. Proportion of Pupils Achieving 5 or more A*-C Grades 2008 Provisional England Average Source: DCFS 2008

  26. Proportion of Pupils Achieving 5 or more A*-C Grades, including Maths and English, 2008 Provisional England Average Source: DCFS 2008

  27. GCSE Attainment of Pupils at the end of Key Stage 4 in the West Midlands by Ethnicity 2006/07 All pupils Source: DCSF

  28. Proportion of Pupils Achieving 5 or moreA*-C Grades, including Maths and English, 2007 by Ethnicity Source: DCSF 2007 – 2008 data not yet available

  29. Apprenticeships Engineering2% of apprentices are female 4% are from ethnic minority communities 6% have a learning difficulty, disability or health problem Plumbing2% of apprentices are female2% are from ethnic minority communities7% have a learning difficulty, disability or health problem Children’s Care, Learning and Development3% of apprentices are male10% are from ethnic minority communities18% have a learning difficulty, disability or health problem

  30. Post-16 General and Applied A/AS or Equivalent Achievement 2008 Provisional England Average Source: DCFS 2008

  31. But surely numbers of young people are declining?Isn’t 70% of the 2014 workforcealready in employment now?Yes – but…

  32. Working Age Qualification Levels Source: APS 2007

  33. Net Change in the Working Age Population of the West Midlands between 1981 and 2006 Source: ONS 2006 Mid-year population estimates

  34. Net Change in Working Age Population West Midlands – 2006-2031 Source: ONS 2006 Mid-year population estimates

  35. Older Workers are Poorly Represented in Growth Sectors such as Retail, Hotels and ICT Source: LFS Spring 2006

  36. Projected Change in West Midlands Population from 2001 to 2020 Source: Joseph Rowntree Foundation 2006, Socio-demographic Scenarios for children

  37. Employment Rates among Minority EthnicGroups are low in the Region Employment rate of ethnic groups in West Midlands Source: LFS 2003-2005

  38. Never mind – we’ll just get our skilled workforce from other parts of the West Midlands…..or will they?

  39. Employment Projections 2007-2017 • 984,000 replacement jobs across the region • 125,000 new jobs (distributed geographically on graph) Source: Working Futures III

  40. Whichever way you look at it, we have a challenge • Unemployment - rising • Qualifications levels – not rising fast enough • Skills levels – too low – not rising fast enough • Age/demography – against us if we carry on as before • Short-term – Economic Downturn • Medium-term - competitive demand/ projected growth

  41. Maximise all sources of skills

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