Evolution of Warfare in the 21st Century: Asymmetric and Social Conflict

2. War in the 21st Century • Wars in the 20th century • Wars in the 21st century • Asymmetric war • Social warfare

3. 20th century wars were of three types • Interstate, both world wars & bilateral • Proxy, guerilla wars in/among super-power clients • Intrastate, between factions contending over rule • These tended to be state-based

4. But the role of the state in war is changing More wars are internal to states & societies

5. These appear to have become more pronounced after 1990: Why? • End of the Cold War • Stabilization of national borders • Diffusion of low-cost armaments • Changing internal incentive structures • Changes in domestic social structures & relations • Rise of “global” terrorism • Interventions to impose a stable social order in warring societies

6. Two dominant types of 21st century war • Asymmetric warfare • Great power vs. weaker parties • High tech vs. low tech • No real front lines • Social warfare • Among social groups (ethnic, religious, etc.) • Result of internal destabilization of social order • Often pits dominant against subordinate groups • Neighbors kill neighbors

7. America’s three wars are asymmetric • U.S. relies on advanced technology in war • Local opponent strikes at weak points in defense • Cost of attacks are low; costs of defense are high • High rates of casualties undermines morale • Local opponent often at advantage in numbers • Victory may require unacceptable levels of violence • Local opponent can “wait out” high-tech force

8. GWOT is a type of asymmetric war • There is no fixed field of battle • Groups & communications difficult to “see” • Advanced tech too destructive & costly • High-visibility targets, low visibility attackers • Attacks use/destroy existing infrastructure • Decapitation may not destroy the “body”

9. This has also generated concern about “weapons of mass destruction” (WMDs) • Deterrence through threat of mass death (strategy) • Little tactical use for WMDs • State possessors inhibited from using them • Technology & materials not difficult to acquire • Proliferation of WMDs raises fears of “irrational” use • Concerns that WMDs may be used against urban centers

10. Social warfare tends to be struggle for power & domination within nat’l societies • “Cultural” divisions of labor & rule found in many places • Hierarchy & domination give access to power & resources • Changes in subordinate group status viewed as “threat” • Rising groups seek a share of the social product • Political entrepreneurs can mobilize fears of clients • Elimination of “threat” relies on verbal and actual violence • (See chapter 31 in reader)

11. What causes neighbors to slaughter neighbors?