Discussions over auto fuel policy opportunities to tighten it
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Discussions over Auto Fuel Policy & opportunities to tighten it. Sumit Sharma TERI, New Delhi. Background. India since 1950 : Population, index of industrial production and number of vehicles have grown 3.3, 50, and 460 times, respectively

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Background it

  • India since 1950 : Population, index of industrial production and number of vehicles have grown 3.3, 50, and 460 times, respectively

  • 53 cities million plus cities. expected to grow to 85 by 2025

  • 31% urbanisation , expected to grow to 38% by 2025.

  • Unprecedented growth of personal vehicles in India.

  • Aspirations to own personal vehicles reinforced by limited public transport

  • Growth of vehicles far more in cities, leading to congestion and emissions and effects over health .

Auto Fuel Policy : 2002 it


Auto Fuel Vision 2025

Air quality in india
Air quality in itIndia



More than 80% cities violate the standards of RSPM

Source: CPCB, NAMP data

Urban air quality delhi pm10
Urban air quality (Delhi)- PM10 it

NOx & vehicles

Banning old vehicles Cleaner fuels and vehicles

Shift industries

Impacts it

  • Sufficient evidence to document the causal relationship with the onset of childhood asthma, non-asthma respiratory diseases, impaired lung function, cardiovascular mortality and morbidity.

  • GBD estimates, about 6 lakh mortalities attributed annually to ambient air pollution in the country.

  • WHO, 2012 Diesel exhausts are carcinogens

  • Effects on vegetation, visibility, ecology etc

  • It warms too ..

  • Impacts image …

OK it impacts, it

but why transport sector ?

Growth in number of motor vehicles
Growth in Number of Motor Vehicles it

  • Over 1/3rd of the total vehicles in 53 million +cities

  • Second tier cities show greater increase in vehicle population

Others: tractors, trailors, three wheelers (passenger vehicles), etc


MoRTH, ROAD TRANSPORT YEAR BOOK (2009-10 & 2010-11), http://morth.nic.in/writereaddata/mainlinkFile/File838.pdf

Vehicular growth
Vehicular growth it

  • About 28000 two wheelers, and 4200 cars added to India’s vehicular fleet daily (2011)

  • As per Census 2011, 21% households have two wheelers whereas 4.7 % have cars/jeeps/vans

  • More growth expected

Data WDI, 2011

Source apportionment study pm
Source apportionment itstudy (PM)

  • Share of transport sector increases if we move from PM10 to PM2.5 (finer fractions)

  • In non-industrial cities, it is the largest source

Source: CPCB, 2010

Transport its not just pm
Transport – Its not just PM !! it

Highest contributor to NOx emissions in India

Gaseous pollutants (NOx, SO2, VOCs) lead to secondary PM formation and acids

NOx and VOCs can lead to formation of ground level Ozone (impacts health + agriculture)

BC (a constituent of PM) has a significant warming potential.


Auto Fuel Policy has been made !! it

Reductions have been made in vehicular emissions !!

Auto fuel policy 2002 regional differentiation

One set of standards for air quality

Different vehicle emission and fuel quality standards for 13 cities and rest of the country

Many other cities in the country are much more polluted than the ones where better quality fuel is presently provided.

Better quality vehicles moving out of 20 cities, may fill the inferior quality fuel and may end up choking their engines

No road map after 2010

Effects of introduction of bs norms 2010 on emissions
Effects of introduction of BS norms (2010 it) on emissions


PM reductions have been more than NOx

TERI’s estimation

Impact of afp o n air quality rspm
Impact itof AFP on air quality (RSPM)

*13 cities : Selected in AFP, 2002 for advanced implementation of BS norms

** Other cities which show higher increase in RSPM in the last 8 years.

Data source : CPCB, NAMP

Learnings from auto fuel policy 2002
Learnings it from Auto Fuel Policy, 2002

  • Heavy duty trucks (highest contributors to PM) could not achieve BS-IV norms due to unavailability of fuel across the country

  • Very high growth of vehicles negated the benefits provided by AFP 2002. Further advancement required

  • Focus more on PM control and less reductions achieved in NOx , and hence, further advancements required

  • Old driving cycles used for testing may not result in on-road reductions as depicted during emissions tests.

It’s the old vehicles which contribute it

Why invest in newer fuels and vehicles ?

Our current vehicular fleet is going to grow from 100 million to about 350 million

Share of older vehicles is going to diminish

However, I&M is a must not only for old but also for new vehicles

Benefits of cleaner fuel
Benefits of cleaner fuel million to about 350 million

Euro IV/V equivalent fuel quality (diesel and petrol) have much reduced sulphur content which will help to improve air quality.

It will enable the use of advanced emissions control technologies on light duty and heavy duty diesel vehicles.

Reach of CNG would still be limited.

Expanding the reach of EURO IV/V equivalent fuel to the entire country would reap considerable air quality benefits.

This is going to cost really high ? million to about 350 million

Hart Energy and MathPro found the refinery investments needed to transition to ULSFs in India to be around $4.2 billion (~25 k crores)

An incremental increase of few % of the present fuel price per litre will do

In California it costed about 2.5 cents per gallon.

Few extra months of on-going diesel price increase will do.

OK lets do some hotspot? cities ! needed to transition to ULSFs in India to be around $4.2 billion (~25 k crores)

Limited benefit: More than 600 Class I-VI cities. Vehicle sales dispersed away from large urban centers.

Trucks—which are the largest emitters of NOx and PM—still on BS-III ?

Treating citizens differently

Why not other sectors ? sales dispersed away from large urban centers.

Its not the question of either/or sales dispersed away from large urban centers.

Transport (dominant in cities)



Why urgency ? sales dispersed away from large urban centers.

Lets do it by 2025 !

May cost more in future sales dispersed away from large urban centers.

Health benefits would reduce

Benefits could be larger .. sales dispersed away from large urban centers.

  • Health impacts of only PM

    • NOx, CO, VOCs and O3 may additionally or synergistically aggravate the impacts

  • Agricultural impacts of Ozone and other pollutants

  • Climate benefits are additional

    • Reduction in PM will reduce black carbon concentrations too

Why India should do it ? sales dispersed away from large urban centers.

Europe, the United States, and Japan implemented low-sulfur fuels years ago

Developing countries like China, South Africa, Mexico, and Brazil have plans to reduce fuel sulfur levels in the near future

Conclusions fuels years ago

  • Air quality in Indian cities is severely deteriorated

  • Transport sector is one of the important source contributing to finer fractions of PM, and NOx

  • Effects on health, agriculture, acid rain, and global warming.

  • After AFP,2002, no road map for future.

  • BS-IV cities show lesser increase or decrease in PM concentrations and hence BS-IV quality fuels (50 ppm sulphur) should be provided all cross the country by 2015.

  • ‘One country, one fuel and one standard’ in India

Conclusions fuels years ago

  • BS-norms needs to be advanced to BS-V and BS-VI levels (by 2019) to improve air quality and reduce health impacts

  • Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel (10 ppm) is critical to achieve BS-VI levels through installation of DPFs

  • Commissioning of an effective I&M system across country

    • Inuse vehicle testing program

    • Strengthed I&M program

    • Relook at driving cycles to prescribe emission norms

  • Development of a fleet modernization programme

  • Measures for reducing energy demand from the sector

  • 37

    Thanks fuels years ago