Environmental Sciences: Towards a Sustainable Future Chapter 6

1. Environmental Sciences: Towards a Sustainable Future Chapter 6 Population and Development

2. Review of Ch. 5 Population Profiles These coincide with the NOVA film “World in Balance, The People Paradox” Too many young children & low working age can be an economic drain Too many old people (a graying period) with not enough working age also an economic drain

3. Population Profile United States youth bulge during baby boomers generation

4. Population Profile United States“stable columnar profile”

5. Population Profile of Italy gradually leading to more and more old people

6. Population Profile Italy “pear, small end down”

7. Population Profile Developing Country “wide based pyramid”

8. Developing Country Stabilizing “vertical columnar profile starting”

9. China’s Solution: family planning policy of 1979 or “one child policy” • Implemented to alleviate social, economical and environmental problems • Uses both incentives (free health care, free schooling) and penalties (fines and fees for extra children, required to pay for health care of entire family, etc.) • Only applies to married urban dwellers, exceptions made for rural families, parents without any siblings, & certain regions like Hong Kong & Taiwan • It has worked to stop population boom, but very controversial, and still being used today

10. China’s one child policy since 1979 stopped the youth bulge occurring up until then a pear shape

11. Kerala’s Solution (southern India)

12. Kerala When Compared to rest of India • Life expectancy 73 years vs 63 for India • Infant mortality 12/1000 versus 58/1000 for India • Fertility rate 1.8 (below replacement level) vs. 2.9 for India • Literacy is over 90% and women are as well educated as men

13. Changing Human Survivorship Curves: Went from B to A A % Survival B Birth Age Death

14. THOMAS MALTHUS…suggested a carrying capacity exists for humans • 1798, first published his “Essay on the Principle of Population”, in which he forecast that population growth would outstrip the world’s food supply and thus human population will be “checked” by world food supply (through mass starvation & malnourishment) • Contrary to most who thought at the time that more people always brought more prosperity because more workers and thinkers to contribute • Industrial revolution after this time period caused reduced fertility rates in industrialized nations and further hurt Malthus’s claim • NOW, Malthus’s theory has made a comeback with food scarcity being a problem in developing countries

15. Thomas Malthus: 1798 food production MUST level off causing population growth to peak Food Production Amount Population Growth Time

16. Thomas Malthus in Summary • Was right eventually, but ahead of his time • His pessimistic predictions of shortage of food supply did not consider changes in agricultural technology (industrialization) and science • Did not consider dramatic decreases in fertility rates in some countries as kids become an economic liability • Now we know for sure that continuing rapid population growth undercuts economic growth possibilities and food supply is a limited resource

17. Reasons for the Human Population Explosionthe “epidemiological transition” Phase II Huge decrease in mortality rates because: • Causes of disease recognized • Improvements in nutrition • Discovery of antibiotics • Improvements in medicine • Increase in number of women who actually reach child-bearing age • Short doubling times in some countries

20. Growth Rate Comparisons…must control continuous population growth to be able to modernize your country Developed Nations: high income, GNI/capita & industrialized) including nations typically < 1% growth : USA (0.6% /yr growth rate, life expectancy of 78), Canada(0.8, 81), Denmark(0.2%, 78), Spain(0.1%, 80), Japan(0.1%, 82), Italy(0.0%, 80), Germany(-0.2%, 79) Developing Nations: low income, low GNI/capita & large population growth including: Ethiopia (3.1%, 55), Afghanistan (2.6%, 44), Kenya (2.5%, 58) , Nigeria (2.0%, 47), Egypt (2.1%, 72), Iraq (2.6%), India (1.7%, 66), Zambia (1.6%, 39), Mexico (1.7%), Brazil (1.4%), Costa Rica (1.4%,78), Vietnam (1.3%, 72), China (0.7%, 73 only industrialized in certain areasHong Kong)

21. Demographics : Numbers to Know 6.8 billion = world population 1.2% = world annual growth rate, 58 years = world doubling time 1.8 % = developing nations annual growth rate 0.1% = developed nations annual growth rate 98% = the percent of total world growth that comes from developing countries 90% = percent of world AIDS cases in developing countries 80% and growing = proportion of world’s human population living in developing nations 60% = percent of world’s pop living in absolute poverty less than $1.25 a day 20% = proportional of world’s wealth in developing nations 80:20 = ratio of world’s wealth in developed vs. developing

22. Gross national income/capita Major Economic Divisions of the World

23. Different Populations, Different Problems • IPAT Formula: calculates human pressure on the environment (I = P x A x T) relative to 3 terms • I = environmental impact • P = population • A = affluence and consumptive patterns • T = level of technology in the society

24. Fertility Rate and Income

25. Factors That Contribute To and Control Population Growth • How family size is determined. • Large-scale centralized and small-scale decentralized projects. • The importance of the physical, social and economic health of women and their children. • The Cairo conference ICPD 1994 and MDG’s of 2000.

26. Why poor in developing countries have large families: SMLE WB • Security in old age care, since no government programs • Mortality rate of infants and children is high • Labor with more children as an economic asset, helping hands, not a liability • Education seems unnecessary, or is unavailable or not allowed • Women do not have equal status or possibilities. not allowed business ownership or careers or education • Birth control not accessible or allowed. (providing contraceptives &family planning is key)

27. Contraceptive Prevalence and Fertility Rates Fertility Rate Percent Using Contraceptive

30. The Poverty Cycle

31. Family Planning • Counseling on: STD’s, contraceptives, spacing children, pregnancy avoidance. • Supplying contraceptives • Pre- and postnatal care

32. Contraceptives • Psychological/Behavioral: abstention, calendar rhythm method • Mechanical: condoms, diaphragms • Chemical: the pill, Norplant • Surgical: tubal ligation, vasectomy • Intrauterine Devices (IUD): abortion device

33. Demographic Transition: Developed Countries

34. Demographic Transition: Developing Countries

35. Millenium Development Goals (MDG’s) of United Nations at Millenium Summit in 2000 • Main focus is to greatly reduce poverty and bring about sustainable development around the world with 8 measurable goals: • Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger • Universal primary education • Gender equality • Reduce child mortality • Improve maternal health • Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases • Ensure environmental sustainability • Global partnerships for development through NGO’s (non-government organizations) and ODA (Official Development Assistance)as a percent of GDP from wealthy donor nations.

36. The 1994 ICPD Cairo ConferenceInternational Conference on Population and Development • All nations agreed that population is an issue of crisis proportions that must be confronted forthrightly. • Must address the population crisis through funding and education for sustainable development and social modernization

37. The 1994 ICPD Program of Action • Maintaining and enhancing productivity of natural resources, don’t just exploit resources for cash crops and non-sustainable mining • Empowerment of women is essential • Emphasis on family planning

38. The 1994 ICPD Program of Action • Enhancing reproductive and basic health of women and children • Improve education opportunities for women • Reduce population migrations • International cooperation (.7% GNP of developed world) • Explicity states that abortions should never be used as a means of family planning

39. Official Development Assistance $78.6 billion in 2004

42. What is the World Bank? • Five closely associated UN agencies aimed at reducing poverty and providing low interest loans to developing countries • Successes included: Social progress in some countries and declining fertility rates in some countries

43. World Bank: Failures • No increased GNP overall • Increased absolute poverty worldwide • Large-scale projects: hydroelectric dams and open pit coal mines often do little for the poor, dramatically increase pollution and displace rural poor who had farmed the fertile soil • Clearing tropical rain forest in Latin America for large cattle operations and mechanized agriculture, still leaving poor marginalized • Cash crops to EXPORT rather than feed the hungry within

44. The Debt Trap

46. Coping With The Debt Crisis Must Pay Interest Payments instead of Sustainably Develop own country • Grow cash crops • Develop austerity measures • Exploit natural resources

47. World Bank Reform is now at hand • Environmental sensitivity is at forefront • Focus on the needs of the poor • Focus on reduction of interest payments

48. A New Direction:Social Modernization • Improved health care for mothers and children • Improving educational opportunities for women • Making family planning accessible • Improving resource management (reversing environmental degradation) • Enhancing employment opportunities and old-age security apart from children

49. Social Modernization • Completely compatible with MDG’s and Cairo ICPD (although did not formally address curbing fertility rates in MDG’s, it will only help with poverty)

50. Founder of Grameen Bank, an NGO • Muhammad Yunus: Economics professor in Bangladesh created a new kind of bank • Created “microlending model” duplicated by over 100 countries • Loans average $67 for 4-6 months, secured by credit association groups Recipient of 2006 Nobel Peace Prize