“By Trial and Error”. Why do we say that?. FA in Business?. When Toyotas Fail……. Drive it back to root cause!. Sports?. Medicine?. We’re nominating you for the Darwin Award!. A 48” culvert plugs on an abandoned road. Why do we respond?. Did not pay your electric bill?.
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Why do we say that?
Drive it back to root cause!
We’re nominating you for the Darwin Award!
Did not pay your electric bill?
200 ft down
This road was built in 2001 for approximately $750,000
Level 1 and 2 roads are roughly 60% of our total road miles.
Suggested Initiative for Monitoring:
Combine effort to complete DSRs and INFRA to achieve road performance monitoring
Geology and Failure Rate
Slope:<=15%, 15-30%, 30-45%, >45%Slope Position:<=20%, 20-55%, 55-85%, 85-100%Distance to Stream:<34m, 34-74m, 74-135m, <=135m
Logistic Regression Modelling:
Combine 509 known failures with 1008 randomly selected locations.
Use slope, slope position, and stream proximity to estimate relative risk of road-related landslides.
Landslide Odds 19X
95% CL: 7, 51
Landslide Odds 39X
95% CL: 15, 100
Distance 213mRelative Odds of Road-Related Landslides
53Relative Odds Compared to 2% Slope, 2% Slope Position, 200m to Stream
Volume (quantity classes)
Sometimes roads catch and preventsediment delivery
What Went Wrong?
S.M.O.O. (Same Mistakes, Over and Over)
Don’t let the system suppress your right to learn from your failures and teach others