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Delaware River Basin SPARROW Model. US Geological Survey Delaware NAWQA. Mary Chepiga 609-771-3955 mchepiga@usgs.gov Susan Colarullo 609-771-3922 colarull@usgs.gov Jeff Fischer 609-771-3953 fischer@usgs.gov. Today’s Talk. The SPARROW model technique

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delaware river basin sparrow model

Delaware River Basin SPARROW Model

US Geological Survey

Delaware NAWQA

Mary Chepiga 609-771-3955 mchepiga@usgs.govSusan Colarullo 609-771-3922 colarull@usgs.govJeff Fischer 609-771-3953 fischer@usgs.gov

today s talk
Today’s Talk
  • The SPARROW model technique
  • Delaware River Basin SPARROW results for Total Nitrogen (TN) and Total Phosphorus (TP) for 2000
  • SPARROW and water-quality monitoring
sparrow model concept
SPARROW*Model Concept

*SPAtiallyReferencedRegressionOn

Watershed Attributes

slide4

SPARROW relates measured loads at monitoring stations to stream and land attributes

Stream Network

Landscape Features

Sources

Monitoring Data

slide5

Model predictions are made for every reach

  • (not just monitored reaches)
  • Load, yield, concentration
  • Contribution from each source
  • In-stream and reservoir losses
  • Incremental and delivered loads for stream reaches, basins and sub-basins
  • Statistical measures of uncertainty for predictors and predictions

Reach basin

Stream reach

2000 total nitrogen yields

Kg/Km2

>2000

>700 and <2000

< 700

Major Stream

2000 Total Nitrogen Yields
  • 97 sites
  • 50% are less than 700 kg/km2
  • 10 % are greater than 2,000 kg/km2
tp loads

Kg/Km2

>75

>25 and <75

< 25

Major Stream

TP Loads

2000 Total Phosphorus Yields

  • Map here
  • 110 sites
  • 50% are less than 25 kg/km2
  • 10 % are greater than 75 kg/km2
total nitrogen total phosphorus
Total Nitrogen Total Phosphorus

Sources

Population

Fertilizer applied to

agricultural land

Animal waste

Diffuse (urban, non-agricultural)*

Stream size*

Reservoir size

Atmospheric deposition

Population

Fertilizer applied to agricultural land

Animal waste

Diffuse (forest, urban, non-agricultural)*

Water-holding capacity

Precipitation

Stream size

Reservoir size

Land-to-Water Delivery

In-Stream Transport

drb spparrow results for entire basin
DRB SPPARROW Results for entire basin

Total Nitrogen (TN) 57.8 million kg

Total Phosphorus (TP) 4.0 million kg

Diffuse* 0.6 kg

Atmospheric Deposition 14.5 kg

Diffuse 0.3 kg

Waste 18.4 kg

Population 2.5 kg

Waste 0.7 kg

Fertilizer 0.5 kg

Population 11.6 kg

Fertilizer 12.7 kg

total nitrogen 2000 total loads
Total Nitrogen2000Total Loads

Total Nitrogen load,

in kilograms per year

< 1,000

1,000 - 5,000

5,001 – 50,000

50,001 – 500,000

> 500,000

total nitrogen 2000 incremental loads
Total Nitrogen2000Incremental Loads

Total Nitrogen Incremental Load,

in kilograms per year

< 200

201 - 500

500 – 1,000

1,000 – 10,000

> 10,000

total nitrogen 2000 incremental yields
Total Nitrogen2000Incremental Yields

Total Nitrogen Incremental Yield

in kg per km2 per year

< 1,000

1,000 – 2,000

2,001 – 4,000

4,001 – 6,000

> 6,000

slide15

TN Major Sources

Atmospheric Deposition

Population

Fertilizer

Waste

Diffuse

TP

Major Sources

sparrow tn errors
SPARROW TN Errors

Error Evaluation

  • Model explains ~90 to 95% of spatial variability in loads
  • Prediction errors for stream reaches are typically +/- 5 to 60% of load
  • Generally half of the independent variables are non-significant

Lowest

Highest

delaware river basin sparrow model points of contact

Delaware River Basin SPARROW Model Points of Contact

Mary Chepiga 609-771-3955 mchepiga@usgs.govSusan Colarullo 609-771-3922 colarull@usgs.govJeff Fischer 609-771-3953 fischer@usgs.gov

US Geological Survey

Delaware NAWQA

slide24

SPARROW Budget Equation

Load

Land-to-water

delivery

Error

Sources

Instream

decay

  • Spatial non-linear regression
  • Adjusts land and stream delivery factors on
  • the basis of basin-wide statistical relationships
  • Minimizes errors at monitoring sites
total phosphorus 2000 total loads
Total Phosphorus2000Total Loads

Total Phosphorus Load,

in kilograms per year

< 1,000

1,000 - 10,000

10,001 – 20,000

20,001 – 400,000

> 400,000

total phosphorus 2000 incremental loads
Total Phosphorus2000Incremental Loads

Total Phosphorus Incremental Load,

in kilograms per year

< 50

51 - 500

501 – 1,000

1,001 – 10,000

> 10,000

slide27

TP Total Loads

TP

Incremental

Loads

total phosphorus 2000 incremental yields
Total Phosphorus2000Incremental Yields

Total Phosphorus Incremental Yield,

in kg per km2 per year

< 0.5

0.6 - 2.0

2.1 – 4.0

4.1 – 10

> 10