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Islam & China – Remaking Southeast Asia?. University of Chicago Graduate School of Business International Roundtable June 21, 2007. End of History or Clash of Civilizations?. Francis Fukuyama Liberal democracy and Western values prevail Sam Huntington

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Islam & China – Remaking Southeast Asia?

University of Chicago Graduate School of Business

International Roundtable

June 21, 2007


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End of History or Clash of Civilizations?

  • Francis Fukuyama

    • Liberal democracy and Western values prevail

  • Sam Huntington

    • Age of ideology over, but world reverts to cultural base of conflict

    • Two “challenger civilizations” – Sinic (China, Korea, etc.) and Muslim World


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Huntington’sMap of Major Civilizations


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Diversity

“Southeast Asia nurtures such rank and exuberant variegation of language, custom, and subsistence mode that it is scarcely possible to focus the jumbled pieces into a coherent image.”

--Stanley J. O’Connor


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Main Political Forces

  • Democratization

  • Military

  • Economic & cultural elites

  • Rural & urban poor

  • Ethnicity

  • Religion


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Democratization

  • Democracy

  • Legitimacy

    • Effectiveness

      • Security

      • Prosperity

    • Moral authority of leader

      • Most important where there is lack of confidence in the institutions of law to protect against abuse of power

    • National identity


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Military

  • Organized

  • National reach

  • Protectors of national security

    • Fight for independence, against insurgencies

  • Avenue for upward mobility


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Economic & Cultural Elites

  • Chinese business

  • Wealthy families

  • Royalty

  • Religious leaders

  • Educators


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Rural & Urban Poor

  • “People power”

  • Poverty base of revolutionary movements

  • Populist democratic movements


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Ethnicity

  • Chinese economic power

  • South Asians

  • Indigenous people

    • Malay “bumiputra”

    • Hill tribes

  • Multiplicity of ethnic groups may mitigate


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Religion

  • Multiple religious influences, but

  • Clear religious majorities

    • Buddhist Thailand

    • Moslem Malaysia & Indonesia

    • Christian Philippines

  • Disadvantaged religious minorities

    • Christians in Indonesia

    • Moslems in Thailand and the Philippines


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Moslems in SE Asia

  • More than 200 million Muslims in SE Asia (almost 20% of world’s 1.2 billion Muslims)

  • Arab-Muslim traders spread Islam since the seventh century (reached SE Asia in 1300s)

  • Minorities (localized communities) in

    • Buddhist Thailand & Myanmar

    • Christian Philippines

  • Majorities in Malaysia & Indonesia



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Historical Overlays

  • Ancient foundations

    • Stone age (java man, etc.)

    • Australonesian, Polynesian, Malay

  • Asian commerce

    • East – Chinese

    • South – Indian

    • West – Arab

  • Commerce also brought religion, customs and court practices


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European Colonization

  • Portuguese, Spanish, British, French, Dutch

  • Political, economic & cultural

  • Covered most of Southeast Asia

    • Indonesia – Portuguese, then British, then Dutch

    • Philippines – Spain, then US

    • Burma & Malaysia – British

    • Indochina (Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia) – French

    • Thailand – squeezed but never under European rule


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Bandung Conference 1955

  • Organized by Egypt, Indonesia, Burma, Ceylon, India & Pakistan

  • 29 Asian and African nations attended

  • Sukarno & Nehru key speeches

  • Promote economic and cultural cooperation and oppose colonialism

  • China role – eased fears

  • Led to nonaligned movement (1961)


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Threat of Communism

  • Most SE Asian countries became independent during cold war era

  • Communism was the major revolutionary political force

  • With decline of communism, religious and ethnic differences gain significance


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Mixed Issues

  • Ethnic v. Religious divisions

    • Ethnic & religious minorities in Thailand and the Philippines

    • Islamic majorities in multi-ethnic Malaysia and Indonesia – Chinese minority with economic power

  • Both situations worked against Islamic political dominance


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Area: 514,000 sq. mi.

Population: 64,631,595

GDP per capita: $9,100 (PPP)

Export economy

Agriculture

Manufactured goods

Thailand


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Thailand

  • Buddhist majority

  • Only SE Asian country never under European rule

  • Intermittent democracy/military rule

  • King’s strong influence

  • Militant Muslim minority in south


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Democracy vs. Military Rule

  • Thailand became a constitutional monarchy in 1932

  • First democratically elected PM in 1946

  • Army took back power in 1947

    • Phibun, Sarit, Thanom

  • Thai values – order, hierarchy, religion

  • 1970s – peasant/student unrest

  • Democratically elected governments

    • Military continued periodic intervention

  • Currently devising 17th constitution


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Coup Needs King’s Support

Yellow ribbons symbolize allegiance to the King


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Sufficiency Economics

  • Capitalism & globalization

    • Reckless growth, crisis

    • Too much liquidity/investment?

  • King’s concern for poor people and the environment

  • Capitalist Thaksin programs helped the poor

  • Military – recent inept economic measures


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Insurgency

  • Communist insurgency in north and northeast no longer active

  • Malay insurgency in south goes back 100 years – recently heated up

  • Attacks on schools – symbols of Thai efforts to force assimilation

  • Severity – links to global Islamic terror network?


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Drivers of Insurgency

  • Economic

    • Poverty, inequality, exploitation

  • Social

    • Ethnic or class grievances

  • Political

    • Oppressive government

    • Military/police brutality

    • Foreign occupation

  • Religious

    • Purely religious

    • Linked to local issues

    • Linked to global movements


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Philippines

  • Area: 300,000 sq. mi.

  • Population: 89,468,677

  • GNP per capita: $5,000 (PPP)

  • Economy

    • Debt (69% of GDP) and inefficiency

    • Industry, services, agriculture

    • Remittances


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Philippines

  • Catholic Spain evangelized most of the country – Muslim remnant minority ethnic groups

  • US defeated Spain, took over administration

    • Fought 14 year war against Filippino insurgents seeking independence

    • Ultimately supported democratic self-governance - focus on education and legal system


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Political Forces

  • Mainstream politics

    • Elite families & cronies

    • Weak, fluid political parties

  • Rebels

    • Communists

    • Muslim successionists

  • Catholic Church influential


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Democracy in Decline?

  • Marcos took dictatorial power – forced out by “people power” revolution

  • Last President (Estrada) forced to step down

  • Accusations of election irregularity on the part of the current President (Arroyo)

  • Proposals to change government to parliamentary style


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Insurgents in the Philippines

  • New People’s Army (NPA)

  • Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF)

  • Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)

  • Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG)



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Moros – Centuries of Insurgency

  • Islam reached southern Philippines in 14th century

  • Spanish arrived in the north soon after

  • Moros fought Spanish and initially welcomed Americans

  • Soon proved difficult foe for US (1902-1913)

    • Juramentado – suicide attacks on civilians

  • Fought Japanese

  • Objected to position in Philippine Republic


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MNLF & MILF

  • Moro National Liberation Front formed in 1969 by university students in Philippines and Mid East

  • Support from Libya and elsewhere

  • Leadership split – 1989, Moro Islamic Liberation Front

  • MILF smaller but more militant


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Abu Sayyaf

  • Small but brutal group

    • Wahabi influenced/financed

    • Afghanistan fight experience

  • Al-Qaeda connection


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Common Themes

  • Problems of governance

    • Governments unable to deliver benefits equitably

    • Democratic governments supported by poor brought down by educated elites

  • Militant insurgencies

    • Suppressed Islam minorities

    • Seek local autonomy

    • Connection to external support


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Malaysia

Population: 24,385,858

GDP per capita (PPP): $12,700


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Mixed Progress

  • Solid economic growth, but

  • Dominant party autocracy and

  • Social (ethnic) tensions


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Political Forces

  • Constitutional monarchy

    • Position of king rotates

    • King is not a significant political force

  • Ruling coalition

    • United Malays National Organization (UMNO)

    • Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA)

    • Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC)

  • Opposition

    • Partia Islam se Malaysia (PAS)

    • Democratic Action Party (DAP)

      • Chinese base


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Coalition of Elites

  • MCA and MIC in alliance with UMNO

    • Barisan National (BN) coalition formed in 1946, dominated by UMNO

    • Have won every election

  • Economic disparities, social tensions & race riots led to measures to favor Malay

  • Economic growth kept opposition at bay

  • PM Matahir Mohammed co-opted Islamic issues


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Islam & Democracy

  • Almost all Malays are Muslim

    • Religion, like race, provides communal identity

  • PAS grew to be largest opposition party in 1990s

  • PAS embraced democratic process in competing with UMNO

  • Anwar incident – failed opportunity for change


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Stability

  • BN coalition – careful balance between appeal to communal bases and stability

  • Economic development central

  • Ethnic division remain – parties continue to all have ethnic/racial bases


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Indonesia

  • Population: 245,452,739

  • GDP per capita (PPP): $3,800


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Indonesia

  • Pancasila (five principles) – official state ideology

    • Belief in one God

    • Just and civilized humanity

    • National unity

    • Democracy by consensus of representatives

    • Social justice for all

  • Held hundreds of ethnic groups together

  • Many Muslims wanted to add Islam and Sharia – blocked by Sukarno


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Communism

  • After independence, widespread public participation in interest groups

  • Communist party (PKI) –

    • On the side of poor, workers & peasants

    • Opposed landlords, also Muslim local elites.

  • Military/senior bureaucrats managed economic assets taken from Dutch

  • US alarmed at PKI growth

    • 3 million by 1965

    • Potential influence on other underdeveloped nations


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1965

  • Left-right divisions in military

  • Sukarno

    • Symbol of national unity – untouchable

    • PKI balance power against right wing top generals

  • Sept 30 mutiny by mid-level officers

    • Killed 6 generals

    • Suharto escaped (or was in on a conspiracy)

  • Military leadership/Suharto blamed PKI

    • Rumors of atrocities

    • Used local forces to eliminate communists

    • Real atrocities – 500,000 killed


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Suharto

  • Suharto put technocrats (Berkeley Mafia) in major positions

    • Consistent with Pancasila concepts of rational state

    • Emphasis on indigenous concepts

  • Islamic groups in opposition

  • Military economic involvement


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Bureaucratic Capitalism

  • Pertamina affair

  • Powerful public figures build private economic empires

  • Ethnic Chinese capitalists

  • Suharto ties with Liem Sioe Liong

  • Pervasive corruption growing political issue


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Separatist Movements

  • Aceh

  • West Papua

  • Moluccas

  • East Timor


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Free Aceh

  • Aceh home to conservative Muslim community

  • Aceh Merdeka (Free Aceh) separatist movement since Dutch colonial time

  • More radical National Liberation Front Aceh Sumatra (GPK-Aceh) emerged in 1990s

  • Post-tsunami agreements


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East Timor, Moluccas, West Papua

  • Christian populations resisted Indonesian authority/integration

  • Moluccas and Western Guinea claimed by Indonesia as part of former Dutch area

  • East Timor – Portuguese control until 1975


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East Timor

  • 1500s Portuguese arrive

  • 1974 Portuguese abandoned

  • 1975 Declared independence, but Indonesia invaded before international recognition

  • US quiet support to Indonesia (fear of communism)

  • Brutal military occupation

  • 1999 Referendum for independence

    • New Indonesian President

    • UN, US, Portugal pressures

  • Unrest and fighting continues


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Molluccas

  • 1513 Portuguese

  • 1599 Dutch

  • 1949 Indonesia given control

  • 1950 Attempted succession

    • Government in exile in Netherlands

    • Transmigration exacerbated strife between Christians & Moslems

  • 2002 Accords & relative peace


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New Guinea

  • Island of New Guinea divided by colonial powers

    • Spanish (1545)

    • Dutch (Western half – 1828)

    • British, Germans (Eastern half – late 1800s)

  • Oil, copper, gold

  • WWII – US military base

  • 1945 Dutch retained West New Guinea, but Indonesia claimed

  • 1952 Papuan right to self-determination

  • 1961 West Papua declared independence


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Western New Guineaaka West Papua, West Irian, Irian Jaya

  • 1963 UN transferred control to Indonesia – subject to vote

  • 1969 Indonesia took control

    • “Act of Free Choice” ??

    • US support (concern about spread of communism)

  • 1971 Construction of Freeport mine

  • Transmigration

  • 2000-2006 Separatist activity, limited autonomy, division


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Islam in SE Asia

  • Introduced between 1100 & 1400 AD

  • “Soft penetration”

    • Came through traders and missionaries rather than conquest

    • Overlaid on animist, Hindu and Buddhist traditions

  • Two main sources:

    • Indian Islam – tolerant and easy going

    • Yemen/Saudi Arabia – strict, orthodox, austere


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Diversity & Local Flavor

  • Diversity in the region reflected in religious practices

  • Sufi influence through India (mysticism) resonates with traditional animist/Hindu/Buddhist culture

  • Limited influence directly from Middle East

    • Traders/migrants (Yemen)


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Links to Middle East Islam

  • Historic gulf due to distance

  • Better communications & easier travel

  • Support for Islamic schools

  • Local issues still dominant

  • Common issues

    • Resent Israel treatment of Palestinians and US support of Israel

    • Object to US military action in Afghanistan and Iraq


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Unity in Diversity

  • Ummah – despite diversity, recognition that all Muslims belong to one community

  • Hajj – shared experience of pilgrimage

  • Jihad – struggle to live the right kind of life

    • Many Muslims do not separate religious from secular life

    • Obligation to shape the world so people can live according to God’s will


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Tolerance & Tension

  • Muslim countries have traditionally been tolerant of Christian and Jewish minorities

  • Most Muslim countries and leaders have condemned terrorist attacks

    But

  • Perception of being under attack

    • Colonialism

    • Hollywood

    • Israel

    • Afghanistan, Iraq, Chechnya


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Islamic Revival

  • Internal factors

    • Globalization – impact of Western culture

    • Asian financial crisis

    • Overthrow of Suharto; separatist movements

    • State sponsored Islamic schools

  • External factors

    • Islamic revolution in Iran

    • Saudi export of Wahhabi fundamentalism

    • Afghan war against Soviets

    • Israel

    • Iraq, Afghanistan


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Political Islam

  • Muslim political agenda inspired by Islamic concerns

  • Islamic parties with Islamic agenda

  • Varied factors limit political Islam in SE Asia

    • Resistance by economic elites

    • Diversity among Islamic groups


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Militant Islam

  • Abu Sayyaf (Philippines)

  • Jemaah Islamiyah (Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia)

  • Al Qaeda support

    • Philippines – foothold

    • Indonesia – fertile ground

    • Malaysia – worries

    • Thailand – target of convenience


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China

  • “Charm Offensive”

  • Free Trade Agreement

  • Proposed joint military exercises

  • US distraction


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Partner Country/Region

Exports

Imports

Total Trade

Percent of Total

ASEAN

163. 9

141.0

304.9

24.9

USA

92.9

61.0

153.9

12.6

Japan

72.7

81.1

153.8

12.6

EU

80.9

59.6

140.5

11.5

China

52.3

61.1

113.4

9.3

S Korea

24.4

23.6

48.0

3.9

Australia

19.6

11.6

31.2

2.6

India

15.0

8.0

23.0

1.9

Others

126.5

305.7

256.2

20.7

Total

648.2

752.7

1,224.9

100.0

ASEAN Trade, 2005

Value in US$ billions


China trade 2005 l.jpg

Partner Country/Region

Exports

Imports

Total Trade

ASEAN

124.5

75.0

199.5

USA

162.9

48.7

211.6

Japan

143.7

100.5

244.2

EU

143.7

73.6

217.3

Others

187.2

362.3

549.5

Total

762.0

660.1

1,422.1

China Trade, 2005

Value in US$ billions


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“Traditional” US Interests

  • Stability & balance of power

  • Prevent being excluded by another power

  • Keep sea lanes open

  • Trade & investment

  • Support allies

  • Promote democracy, rule of law, human rights & religious freedom


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Key Interests in SE Asia?

(According to google)

  • Avian Flu

  • China

  • Combating terrorism


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Recent Emphasis (2004)

  • Top priority is war on terror

  • Five strategic partners

    • Philippines

    • Thailand

    • Japan

    • South Korea

    • Australia


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USAID Indonesia

  • $130 million (2006)

  • Focus on

    • Democratic governance

    • Basic human services

    • Basic education

    • Economic growth

    • Environment

  • Also

    • Tsunami rebuilding

    • Support for Aceh peace accord


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USAID Philippines

  • $70 million (2006)

  • Focus on

    • Family planning & health

    • Education

    • Economic governance

    • Environment & energy

  • Also

    • Conflict reduction in Mindano & other areas