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National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Update October 26, 2014

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Update October 26, 2014. Dennis W. Staley Executive Officer, NCEP. Outline. Who We Are Were We Have Been What We Have Achieved Where We are Going: Drivers for Change NCEP’s Role in Impact-Based Decision Support Services

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National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Update October 26, 2014

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  1. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) UpdateOctober 26, 2014 Dennis W. Staley Executive Officer, NCEP

  2. Outline • Who We Are • Were We Have Been • What We Have Achieved • Where We are Going: Drivers for Change • NCEP’s Role in Impact-Based Decision Support Services • FY15 Key Activities • NCEP Labor/Management Success Stories • Summary

  3. Who We Are: National Centers for Environmental Prediction 426 FTE 200 Contractors 40+ Visiting Scientists 6 NOAA Corps Officers $125M Budget Environmental Modeling Center College Park, MD Aviation Weather Center Kansas City, MO Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD National Hurricane Center Miami, FL NCEP Central Operations College Park, MD (Supercomputers in Reston & Orlando) Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, CO Weather Prediction Center College Park, MD Ocean Prediction Center College Park, MD Storm Prediction Center Norman, OK Mission • Provide reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts, and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy Vision • Nation’s trusted source, first alert, and preferred partner for environmental prediction services

  4. Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Seasonal Forecasts El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Extreme Events (Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather) Aviation Forecasts and Warnings High Seas Forecasts and Warnings Who We Are: What NCEP Delivers “Provision of Services from the Sun to the Sea” • Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather • International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts • Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation • Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations 4

  5. Where We Have Been

  6. What We Have AchievedTop Accomplishments 2009-2013 • NCO • Transitioning to New Facility (NCWCP) with No Loss of Products • Transitioning to Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputer System With a New Operating System • Improving On-Time Delivery of Supercomputer Products: 99.99% • SWPC • Implementing First Operational Space Wx Prediction Model: WSA-ENLIL • OPC • Changing From Text Only Forecasts to Gridded and Text Forecasts for the Marine Offshore Forecasts • CPC • Developing a National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) Capability to Advance the Skill of NOAA’s Seasonal Predictions • EMC • Implementing New Models and Upgrades: CFSv2; Hybrid En-3DVAR; RTOFS; HWRF; RAP; HRRR; LDAS; Ensembles (GEFS, SREF, NAEFS)

  7. What We Have AchievedTop Accomplishments 2009-2013 • WPC • Developing Ensemble-Based Gridded Probabilistic Snow and Freezing Rain Forecasts--used by WFO Sterling (WRN Pilot Project) to Issue Experimental Winter Snowfall Probabilistic Products • AWC • Strengthening Partnership with FAA by Placing DSS Meteorologists at FAA National Command Center in Warrenton, Va • Establishing Robust and Active Aviation Weather Testbed • NHC • Leading in the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) and Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) Activities Resulting to Improvements in Hurricane Track and Intensity Forecasts • SPC • Establishing Routine Collaboration with National and Regional FEMA; FEMA Liaison at SPC in 2014 • Partnership Exercised Successfully in Historic 2011 Tornado Season

  8. NHC Official Forecast Performance Atlantic Basin Track forecast improvements Intensity forecast improvements • Errors cut in half over past 15 yrs • 10-yr improvement - 48 hrs forecast of today is as accurate as our 24 hrs forecast in 2000 • Significant improvements since HFIP Program established (2009) • HFIP 5-Year Goal Achieved

  9. Where We are Going:Drivers for Change • New NCEP Director • NWS Strategic Plan Focused on Building a “Weather-Ready Nation” and “Improved Decision Support Services” • New NWS HQ Reorganization and Budget Restructuring • Sandy Supplemental is Game Changer in All Aspects of the End-to-End Forecast Process (i.e. Observations, Modeling, Computing, Forecast Services, etc) • External Reviews • UCAR Advisory Committee for NCEP 2013/2014 Report • Weather Services for the Nation: Becoming Second to None • Forecast for the Future: Assuring the Capacity of the NWS (NAPA Report, 2013) • New NCEP Strategic Plan

  10. NCEP Alignment with DOC/NOAA/NWS Priorities Weather-Ready Nation Embraced by NAPA: “We Can’t do it Alone” #3 – Environment 3.2 Improve preparedness, response, and recovery from weather and water events by building a Weather-Ready Nation #4 -- Data 4.3 Collaborate with the business community to provide more timely, accurate, and relevant data products and services for customers #2 - Evolve the NWS a. Build a Weather-Ready Nation by holding ourselves accountable for the accuracy of our forecasts and ensuring people know how to react to that information b. Create a National Weather Service based on a fully integrated field structure that provides nationally consistent products and services, manages innovation, and accelerates research to operations across NOAA 1) Improve Weather Impact-Based Decision Support Services 2) Improve Water Forecasting Services 3) Enhance Climate Services and adapt to climate-related risks 4) Improve sector-relevant information in support of economic productivity 5) Enable environmental forecast services supporting healthy communities and ecosystems 6) Sustain a highly skilled, professional workforce

  11. Sandy Supplemental • Provided $466M to NOAA to Address Sandy Mitigation ($87M to NWS) • Key Areas: • Observations • Computing Capacity • Model Upgrades • Dissemination: Ground Readiness • Storm Surge Enhancements • Training; Including Social Science • JPSS Gap Mitigation • Facilities Repairs • A “Game Changer” for Enhancing the Entire Forecast Process • Offers Opportunity to Accelerate Major Advancements to the Operational Computer and Model Infrastructure • Monthly Tracking and Reporting Required

  12. Setting the Stage for Change: 2012 NAS Reports and 2013 NAPA Report Strategic Tactical Energized Stakeholder Engagement/ External advice Restructured/ transparent budget follows function (NWSHQ a good place to realign first) Solidify NWSEO relationship Develop a Framework to Guide Change, and begin a deliberate Pace of Change Enhanced capacity for testing and demonstration – (O2R/R2O) - Training Embrace “Weather-Ready Nation” and six Strategic goals – but emphasize we can’t do it alone Improve Service Consistency Across the NWS - IDSS “Open Weather and Climate” support for Commercial and Research Sectors Energize private sector engagement/enhance secondary value chain Centralized Change Management/IT Development Improve innovation management/Find efficiencies in infrastructure NCEP is Key Player in Execution 12

  13. UCAR Advisory Committee for NCEP: Major Messages • Revise/Update NCEP Strategic Plan • Take advantage of opportunities associated with move to the NCWCP; VSP Program • Workforce Management: Hire the Best and Brightest • “Second to None” Charge: Apply to NCEP Products, Services and Modeling • Use Science-­Based “Trade-­Space” Priority Setting for Production Suite Resources – Shrink # of Models • Adopt a Unified Coupled Modeling Framework • Strengthen Interactions with Research Community

  14. New NCEP Strategic Plan: Timeline

  15. The Director’s DRAFT Vision for NCEP NCEP is the trusted sourceof weather, water, climate and space weather guidance, forecasts, warnings and analysesused to protect life and property, stimulate economic growth and improve the quality of every day life. NCEP employees are a valued national asset,using science, innovation, and collaborationto create and deliver accurate environmentalproducts and services-----on time, every time, all the time spanning the Sun to the Sea….

  16. Strategic Areas for NCEP in the Next 5 Years • A major player in building and sustaining a Weather Ready Nation and providing Impact-Based Decision Support Services • Strategically expand science/service areas based on user requirements: • 3-4 weeks forecasts (closing the gap between weather and climate) • Extending lead time for high impact events • Incorporate a full earth system science approach • Strategically transition research into operations (R2O/O2R) • Deliver (with partners) the WRN integrated field structure • Deliver world class operational numerical guidance required to support the WRN • Deliver timely, reliable, consistent and accurate products/services • Deliver high capacity IT infrastructure support, high performance computing and technical management services

  17. NCEP’s Role in Impact-Based Decision Support Services

  18. IDSS Support at NCEP National Federal Partners Internal NOAA Sector Specific Support National Media International

  19. Internal NOAA-NWS-NCEP Serve key role to raise local situational awareness NOC NHC SPC WPC AWC ROCs

  20. Unique Internal NOAA FY15 Milestone: Issue marine forecasts for the Antarctic to support NOAA’s National Marine Fisheries Service in Antarctica. Ecological Modeling

  21. FEMA / DHS Briefings FEMA Liasons Monthly or Regular Basis and Special Partner Briefings in Advance of Major Events Daniel Porter Somer Erickson Matthew Green

  22. Special Sector Support (National Aviation Met.) • Ensuring Weather Situational Awareness • Collaborating with CWSU/WFO/AWC • Adding Insight to Static NWS Products (e.g., Uncertainty) • Scheduled and On-Demand (Event-Driven) Briefings • Impact-Based Decision Support Services

  23. National Media

  24. Specialized Support International NCEP Training Desks NCEP executes over half of NWS International travel • Scientific and Service Engagement • Satellite Coordination • Global Model Coordination South America / Tropical Africa / Monsoon Japanese Tsunami Haiti Earthquake

  25. DSS Challenge: How to Better Integrate NWS Field Structure • NCEP and WFOs have a responsibility to collaborate • NCEP forecasts are improved by WFO interaction • WFO’s forecasts are improved by NCEP interaction • End result is a more consistent, accurate, and trusted NWS forecast and DSS message • Need common culture of collaboration • NCEP needs to earn WFO trust/respect • ‘MY’ forecast needs to becomes ‘OUR’ forecast • Need common analysis and verification • Need common tools (AWIPS II, Sit Aware tool) • Need clear roles and responsibilities

  26. Opportunities(ROCs) NOC NHC SPC WPC AWC CPC OPC SWPC ROCs ROCs could help facilitate NCEP-WFO collaboration on a consistent DSS message -Monitor and anticipate issues -Proactively set up collaboration calls *

  27. Opportunities (Probabilistic DSS) NWS worked with FAA and Industry to define impact thresholds Criteria for DCA Risk of Risk Take Event Tolerance Action Action Cancel Flights Risk Tolerance 40% Chance of Heavy Snow 45%

  28. Opportunities (Probabilistic DSS) Most Likely (5”) Provide a reasonable best / worst-case scenario Maximum (13”) DC DC DC Local Emergency Manager: “This is one of the most important new initiatives from NWS we have seen for Emergency Managers in years.” Minimum (1”) Expect at least this much Official NWS Forecast Potential for this much

  29. Opportunities (Integrating Social Science) Convective Outlook Storm Surge Hazards Simplification

  30. Rapid Refresh andHRRR NOAA hourly updated models 13km Rapid Refresh (RAP) (mesoscale) V2 in ops: 2/25/14 RAP 3km HRRR (storm-scale) HRRR High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Scheduled NCEP Implementation Sept 2014 *

  31. HRRR Benefits • Increased resolution (3km) of basic fields like temperatures, winds, visibility, etc to resolve mesoscale features • Explicitly allows convection, allowing for storm-scale structure; shows skill at predicting storms with strong rotation, bow echoes, etc. • Provides hourly updates at high resolution • Out to 15 hours • Will be a key part of future NCEP hi-res ensemble *

  32. High Impact Prediction Needs: Higher Resolution Models 40 km RUC 1998 (1.5x resolution) 20 km RUC 2002 (3x resolution) 13 km RUC/RAP 2005 (4.6x resolution) 3 km HRRR 2014 (20x resolution)

  33. High Impact Prediction Needs: Higher Resolution Models *

  34. High Impact Prediction Needs: Higher Resolution Models Hurricane Arthur *

  35. Observations Used High Impact Prediction Needs: Higher Resolution Models 13-km 6hr forecast HRRR 6hr forecast 13-km RAP Parameterized Convection 6 hr forecast 3-km HRRR Explicit Convection 6 hr forecast 07 June 2012 5 PM EDT Reality Accurate Storm Structure Accurate Estimate of Permeability No Storm Structure No Estimate of Permeability Aircraft must Navigate Around Thunderstorms

  36. June 16 “Twin Tornado” Supercell in northeast Nebraska *

  37. 14z + 7hr 15z + 6hr Clear trend in hourly cycle for enhanced risk in northeast NE 16z + 5hr 17z + 4hr *

  38. FY15 Key Activities • Upgrade WCOSS – 3X Compute Capacity • Award New WCOSS Contract • Develop Experimental Weeks 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlook • Develop Experimental Week-2 Heat Watch Outlook Product • Operationalize National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) System • Expand SPC Watch Coverage from 20nm Offshore to 60nm Offshore • Enhance SPC Convective Outlooks for Days 1,2,3 – Add Two New Risk Categories

  39. Added 2 new risk categories:- "Marginal"- "Enhanced“ • Implemented October 22 SPC Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3 Convective Outlooks NEW OLD

  40. FY15 Key Activities • Develop Experimental Day 4-7 Winter Outlook Product • Develop Experimental 72-h Winter Weather Watch Recommender on an Internal Web Site for WFO Evaluation/Feedback • Expand Winter Weather Desk to 24X7 Coverage to increase collaboration and consistency with field offices • Implement Model Upgrades: GFS, GDAS, GEFS, HWRF • Develop Seasonal Severe Wx Outlook • Develop Whole Atmospheric Model for Space Wx • Implement Experiment Tropical Storm Surge Watch/Warning Product

  41. FY15 Key Activities • Implement Experimental Aviation Probabilistic Convection Guidance Aimed to Improve Consistency • Implement Experimental Aviation Probabilistic Guidance for Cloud and Visibility • Begin Issuing Marine Forecasts for the Antarctic to Support NOAA's National Marine Fisheries Service in Antarctica • Finalize and Implement New NCEP Strategic Plan • Conduct Center Reviews through the UCAR External Review Team

  42. NCEP Labor Management Success Stories • Ocean Synergy Team: Established in 2003 • To improve ocean forecasts through collaboration and increased operational effectiveness of the three ocean forecast offices (OPC, NHC, HFO) • Improve product quality and consistency across boundaries • Coordinate on future improvements • Increased efficiency for technical developments • Discussion Underway to Expand to AK • Timeliness Team: Improved Center Timeliness from Mid 70% in Early 2000’s to 98% Today • Joint Labor/Management Training • NCEP Strategic Plan

  43. Summary • NCEP is aligned with DOC, NOAA and NWS Strategic Planning Goals • NCEP is a Critical Component to NWS Success & Underutilized Resource • NCEP is Committed to Maintaining a Strong Labor Management Relationship • NCEP Key Strategic Areas Over Next Five Years • Leader in integrated field structure and DSS • World class modeling center • World leader in high performance computing • Expand science/service areas (3-4 weeks forecasts; full ESS approach; National IDSS)

  44. Thank You

  45. Appendix

  46. Summary of Employee Input

  47. Sandy Supplemental Projects

  48. SCIENTIFIC CHALLENGE Short Range Weather Prediction Long Range Climate Prediction Mid-Range Forecasting Week 3-4 Temperature Outlooks (1 & 3 Months) ? Precipitation Outlooks (1 & 3 Months) Hurricane Track Forecasts (out to 5 days) Severe Weather Outlook (out to 8 days) Public Gridded Forecasts (out to 7 days) Temp/Precip Outlooks (6 -10, 8 -14 days) Seasonal Drought Outlook (1 Month & Seasonal) National Climate Assessment (Years and Decades) YEARS DECADES DAYS WEEKS MONTHS

  49. CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER(Current and Experimental Products) POTENTIAL FUTURE PRODUCTS 2015 EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT CURRENT PRODUCT Precipitation Probability (8-14 Day Outlook) Average Precipitation (3-4 Weeks Outlook) Extreme Precipitation Potential Probability of Above Probability of Above High Risk of Extreme Precipitation Probability of Below Probability of Below

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