National centers for environmental prediction an overview
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 29

National Centers for Environmental Prediction: An Overview PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 81 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

National Centers for Environmental Prediction: An Overview. Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction Director. “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”. Climate Services Program Managers Meeting. February 11, 2011.

Download Presentation

National Centers for Environmental Prediction: An Overview

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


National centers for environmental prediction an overview

National Centers for Environmental Prediction: An Overview

Dr. Louis W. Uccellini

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Director

“Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”

Climate Services Program Managers Meeting

February 11, 2011


National centers for environmental prediction an overview

Organizational Chart for the National Weather Service

National

Hurricane

Center

Space Weather

Prediction Center


Ncep s role in noaa s seamless suite of products and forecast services

NCEP’s Role in NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services

Observe

To Serve Diverse

Customer Base

e.g., Energy Officials, DHS/FEMA, Emergency Managers, Water Resource Planning, Transportation, Health organizations (CDC…)

- Process

- Assimilate

- Predict

Products & Forecast Services

Central

Guidance

Local

Offices

Respond & Feedback

NCEP

Distribute

IBM Supercomputer Gaithersburg, MD

Research, Development and Technology Infusion

Feedback

Prediction is now inherently linked to numerical models


Ncep supports the noaa seamless suite of climate weather and ocean products

NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products

Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service

Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.

Aviation Weather Center

Space Weather Prediction Center

NCEP Central Operations

Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center

Storm Prediction Center

National Hurricane Center

Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services


National centers for environmental prediction an overview

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

Tropical Weather Guidance and Forecasts

26 FTE

46 FTE

5


Test beds service science linkage with the outside community

EMCWRF Developmental Test Center, NASA/ NOAA/DoD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

CPCClimate Test Bed

NHCJoint Hurricane Test Bed

HPCHydrometeorological Test Bed

SPCHazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL

SWPCSpace Weather Prediction Test Bed with AFWA

AWCAviation Weather Test Bed

OPClinked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch

Test BedsService – Science Linkage with the Outside Community

6


What does ncep do

Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts

Climate Seasonal Forecasts

El Nino – La Nina Forecast

Weather Forecasts to Day 7

Extreme Events (Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather)

Aviation Forecasts and Warnings

High Seas Forecasts and Warnings

What Does NCEP Do?

“From the Sun to the Sea”

  • Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather

  • International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts

  • Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

  • Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

7


Noaa seamless suite of forecast products spanning climate and weather

NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

Outlook

Guidance

Threats Assessments

Forecast Lead Time

Forecasts

Watches

Warnings & Alert Coordination

Benefits

Service Center Perspective

Forecast

Uncertainty

Years

Seasons

Seasonal Predictions

Months

Week 2 Hazards Assessment

CPC

2 Week

Climate/Weather

Linkage

6-10 Day Forecast

1 Week

NDFD, Days 4 -7

HPC

OPC

TPC

Days

Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3

Tropical Storms to Day 5

Severe Weather to Day 8

Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8

:

SPC

AWC

SWPC

Hours

Minutes

Health

Maritime

Aviation

Agriculture

Recreation

Commerce

Ecosystem

Hydropower

Environment

Fire Weather

Life & Property

Emergency Mgmt

Energy Planning

Space Operations

Reservoir Control


Nws seamless suite of forecast products spanning climate and weather

NWS Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

Outlook

Guidance

Threats Assessments

Forecast Lead Time

Forecasts

Watches

Warnings & Alert Coordination

Benefits

NCEP Model Perspective

Forecast

Uncertainty

Years

Seasons

Months

Climate Forecast System

2 Week

North American Ensemble

Forecast System

Climate/Weather

Linkage

1 Week

Global Forecast System

Short-Range Ensemble Forecast

Days

Ocean Model

Hurricane Models

North American Forecast

Hours

Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation

  • GFDL

  • WRF

Dispersion Models for DHS

Minutes

Health

Maritime

Aviation

Agriculture

Recreation

Commerce

Ecosystem

Hydropower

Environment

Fire Weather

Life & Property

Emergency Mgmt

Energy Planning

Space Operations

Reservoir Control


Noaa s nws model production suite

Forecast

NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite

Oceans

HYCOM

WaveWatch III

Climate

CFS

Coupled

Hurricane GFDL

HWRF

MOM3

3.5B Obs/Day

Satellites + Radar

99.9%

Dispersion

ARL/HYSPLIT

Regional NAM

WRF NMM

Global

Forecast

System

Regional

DA

Global Data

Assimilation

Severe Weather

WRF NMM/ARW

Workstation WRF

Short-Range

Ensemble Forecast

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Regional

DA

WRF: ARW, NMM

ETA, RSM

Air Quality

GFS, Canadian Global Model

NAM/CMAQ

Rapid Update

for Aviation

10

NOAH Land Surface Model


Prediction requires coupling of basic earth systems within global numerical forecast models

Prediction Requires “Coupling” of Basic Earth “Systems” within Global Numerical Forecast Models

Atmosphere

Ocean

Cryosphere

Land

  • Predictions Driven by Global Observing Systems

  • Real-time operations require world’s largest computers

11


Computing capability

Transition to IBM Power 6 complete

Declared operational August 12, 2009

73.1 trillion calculations/sec

Factor of 4 increase over the IBM Power5

156 POWER6 32-way nodes

4,992 processors

20 terabytes of memory

330 terabytes of disk space

3.5 billion observations/day

27.8 million model fields/day

Primary: Gaithersburg, MD

Backup: Fairmont, WV

Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes

Web access to models as they run on the CCS

Number of Hits (Millions)

Computing Capability

“reliable, timely and accurate”

Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page

2010

2009

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008


Example of forecast metric

Example of Forecast Metric

13


National centers for environmental prediction an overview

Record Scores

Record Improvement


Day at which forecast loses useful skill ac 0 6 n hemisphere 500hpa height calendar year means

Day at which forecast loses useful skill (AC=0.6) N. Hemisphere 500hPa height calendar year means

8.02d

Forecast day


National centers for environmental prediction an overview

2010

(preliminary)


Forces for change

Forces for Change

  • Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite

    • SREF

    • NAEFS

    • Climate Forecast System (EUROSIP)

  • Entering the JPSS era

    • More rapid access to hyperspectral data

    • GPS soundings

    • Higher resolution surface radiance data

  • All models run within ESMF

    • Models run concurrently

    • Hybrid vertical coordinate

    • Coupled

    • Spanning all scales

  • Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro, climate and ecosystems applications

ESMF-based System

Global/Regional Model Domain

Model Region 1

Model Region 2


National centers for environmental prediction an overview

Climate Forecast System (CFS) Planned Upgrade for Q2FY11


National centers for environmental prediction an overview

National Environmental Modeling System FY11; Q3

12 km

1.5 km

Parent (12 km)

– 84 hrs

Children (6, 4 & 3 km)

– 60 hrs

IMET (1.5 & 1.33 km)

– 36 hrs

6 km

3 km

3 km

4 km

1.33 km

Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM)  NonHydrostatic Multiscale Model on B grid (NMMB)

-- Physics retuned for NMMB

-- Additional data sets: Windsat, ASCAT, ACARS humidity, NOAA-19 (HIRS and AMSU-A), IASI radiances, AQUA (AMSU-A), GPS (radio occultation)


Eurosip update

EUROSIP Update

  • MOU signed in July 2010 to include NCEP as EUROSIP partner (along with ECMWF, Meteo-France, UKMet)

  • The EUROSIP hindcast data files have been downloaded to computers VAPOR and STRATUS (in restricted access directories)

  • CPC has FY11 milestone to develop and test a seasonal multi-model ensemble forecast tool that combines CFS and EUROSIP

23


Ecosystem prediction

Ecosystem Prediction

Predicting Sea Nettles in Chesapeake Bay

Current Demonstration

Ready for Transition*

  • Automatically generate daily nowcasts and 3-day forecasts of Sea Nettles, Chrysaora quinquecirrha, in Chesapeake Bay

  • Generated since 2002

  • Important for water management and recreational purposes

* Research initiated, developed and results demonstrated by NOS and NESDIS with regional partners and customers

Predicted chance of encountering sea nettles, C. quinquecirrha, on August 17, 2007


Climate and health in africa

Climate and Health in Africa

Observed and Predicted Meningitis Incidence Rate

in logarithmic form - Case of Burkina Faso

Base Period: 1968-2005

  • Collaborate with NMHS Burkina Faso on predicting meningitis outbreaks

    • Target countries: Burkina Faso, Niger

    • Preliminary results suggest NCEP reanalysis can be used to predict epidemic outbreaks

  • Collaborate with UMD on predicting water-borne diseases

    • Target countries: Angola, Cameroon, Mozambique, Senegal

    • Preliminary results suggest role of SST and rainfall in triggering an epidemic disease

    • Rainfall increase of 277 mm in 7 days, 15-22 Aug 2005

    • Cholera outbreak peaks about 30 days later.

Yaka et al., 2008

Observed rainfall (blue) and cholera data (red)

Case of Dakar, Senegal

Constantin & Thiaw, in progress


Summary

Summary

  • NCEP is

    • Strategically aligned with NOAA’s “seamless suite” of products from the “Sun to the Sea”

    • Continually improving collaborative forecasts – especially for extreme events

    • Working with NOAA on expanded responsibilities (e.g, oceans air and water quality, ecology, space weather…); success is based on interdisciplinary approach

    • A critical transition agent in the NOAA “research to operations” process involving observations, data assimilation, modeling, and service delivery

    • Actively pursuing opportunities for collaboration in research, transition to operations and operational production and delivery of services with national and international communities

26


Appendix

Appendix

27


New building status

New Building Status

  • The developer stopped work in December 2008 when NCWCP construction was 80% complete.

  • In May 2009, the developer filed a claim in Federal Court to recover “damages” from the Government. This claim was dismissed without prejudice in August 2010. In October 2010, the developer filed an appeal; resolution of this appeal is pending.

  • In June 2009, the developer filed for bankruptcy with the County Court. In response, the court appointed a “Receiver” to complete the project. In November 2010, the court approved the Receiver’s plan and granted the receiver permission to resume construction.

  • In December 2010, the Receiver filed a motion to petition the Federal Court to transfer the pending Federal appeal to the County Court. Once transferred, the Receiver can ask that the claim be dismissed with prejudice, after which construction can resumepromptly.

  • GSA’s goal is to reach project completion approximately 12 months after re-start of construction. GSA’s most current estimate for the building’s substantial completion is March 2012.


  • Login