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National Centers for Environmental Prediction Its Mission and Vision

National Centers for Environmental Prediction Its Mission and Vision. Dr. Louis Uccellini NCEP Director January 2001. NCEP Mission Statement.

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National Centers for Environmental Prediction Its Mission and Vision

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  1. National Centers for Environmental PredictionIts Mission and Vision Dr. Louis Uccellini NCEP Director January 2001

  2. NCEP Mission Statement The National Centers for Environmental Prediction delivers national and global weather, water, climate, and space weather guidance, forecasts, warnings and analyses to its Partners and External User Communities.These products and services respond to user needs to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information.

  3. NCEP’s Strategic VisionStriving to be America’s … • First Choice for global and national climate and weather analyses, forecasts and guidance • First Alert for all climate and weather hazards • Preferred Partner in developing numerical models and new weather, water, climate and space weather products and services

  4. IBM RS/6000 SP (Phase 2) • # 6 on the Top 500 list of supercomputers • About 42 times C90 • Configured as two symmetrical systems • 552 Winterhawk-II Nodes, 4 CPUs per node • 2048 batch application processors • 160 support processors (40 nodes) • 2 GB memory each node (512 MB per CPU) • 14 TB disk space • 200 TB robotic tape library (two STK silos) • Gigabit Ethernet (on campus) • ATM (OC3 and OC12) (off campus) NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS, January 2001

  5. NCEP Production Suite • Production Suite • 425 codes – 11 utilizing message passing • 2.1 million lines of code & script • Major Model Runs • Rapid Update Cycle – 40 Km/40 Lvl (Hourly) • Eta Model – 22 Km/ 50 Lvl (4 times daily – 60 hrs) • NGM (twice daily) • Aviation Run – T170 (4 times daily – on-time 120hrs, off-time 84 hrs) • Medium Range Forecast (Once per day – 16 days) • Global Ensembles (12 members twice daily, T62) • Global Data Assimilation (4 times daily) • Hurricane (on demand – 4 storms, 4 times daily)

  6. Planned Implementations • Eta Model • Extend runs to 84 hrs – January • Available on NCEP ftp server until NCF can evaluate resource requirements • Assimilate Observed Precipitation – April • FOUS to 60 hrs – May • Nested “Threats runs” – June • Available on NCEP ftp server • 12 km/60 lvl – November • RUC • 20 km/50 lvl – July

  7. Meso Eta Modeling Plans 2001 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 22km/50lvl Extend 00z+12z runs to 84 hr • 22 km / 50 level • Re-tune 3D-VAR • Assimilate Precip • Upgrade Land- • Surface Model “THREATS” HI-RES Nested Runs on Selectable Domains • ~12 km / 60 level • Assimilate 88D RadialVel • Assimilate GOES Cloud • Increase EDAS to hourly • Upgrade cloud & precip

  8. Planned ImplementationsContinued • Regional Ensembles • May • Available on NCEP ftp server • Global Model • Prognostic Cloud Water, Convective Scheme, Tropical Storm relocation package – June • Ensembles • Extend high resolution (T126) from 60 to 84 hrs – January

  9. Regional Ensembles • Operational May 2001

  10. Partnering with Major Organizations • Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation • NASA,NESDIS,OAR • WRF • DoD, NSF, NWS, OAR, FAA • Test Beds • SPC (with NSSL) • EMC (with OAR) • TPC (with HRD/AOML) • CPC/EMC (with GFDL) • AWC (with FAA)

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