1 / 26

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Spring 2009 - COPC Meeting. “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”. NAVO, Bay St. Louis, MS May 13, 2009. Louis W. Uccellini NCEP Director. Overview. Define NCEP Model Production Suite -- Forces for Change

noelani-figueroa
Download Presentation

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. National Centers forEnvironmental Prediction Spring 2009 - COPC Meeting “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” NAVO, Bay St. Louis, MS May 13, 2009 Louis W. Uccellini NCEP Director

  2. Overview Define NCEP Model Production Suite -- Forces for Change Recent Interactions with DoD -- AF Backup -- JCSDA NCOM data transfer FY09 Model Update Building Update

  3. NCEP Mission and Vision Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. Aviation Weather Center Space Weather Prediction Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Storm Prediction Center Tropical Prediction Center Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services

  4. Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Inter-annual El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather Aviation Forecasts and Warnings Offshore and High Seas Forecasts and Warnings NCEP: “From the Sun to the Sea” • Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather • International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts • Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation • Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

  5. NWS Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits NCEP Model Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months Climate Forecast System 2 Week North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate/Weather Linkage 1 Week Global Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Days Ocean Model Hurricane Models* North American Mesoscale Model Hours Severe Weather Mesoscale Runs* • GFDL • WRF Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Minutes Dispersion Models for DHS Health Maritime Aviation Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Environment Fire Weather Life & Property Emergency Mgmt Energy Planning Space Operations Reservoir Control * Potential ensemble candidates

  6. Forecast NOAA Model Production Suite Oceans RTOFS/HYCOM WaveWatch III Climate CFS Coupled Hurricane GFDL HWRF MOM3 1.7B Obs/Day Satellites 99.9% Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT Regional NAM WRF NMM Global Forecast System Global Data Assimilation Severe Weather WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF Short-Range Ensemble Forecast North American Ensemble Forecast System WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM Air Quality GFS, Canadian Global Model NAM/CMAQ Rapid Update for Aviation NOAH Land Surface Model

  7. IBM Power 5 15.5 trillion calculations/sec 2,368 processors 4,736 gigabytes of memory 150 terabytes of disk space 75 terabyte tape archive 1.7 billion observations/day 27.8 Million model fields/day October 2009 Upgrade Increase computational performance by 4.5X 69.7 trillion calculations/sec Number of Hits (Millions) Computing Capability Primary Computer Gaithersburg, MD Backup Computer Fairmont, WV Guaranteed switchover in 15 min Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

  8. Record Values NH NH Reanl SH SH Reanl

  9. NHC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors Major Upgrades in Global and Hurricane Numerical models Advances Related To USWRP 2003-2008 trend line

  10. Forces for Change • Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite • SREF • NAEFS • Climate Forecast System • Entering the NPOESS era • More rapid access to hyperspectral data • GPS soundings • Higher resolution surface radiance data • All models run within ESMF • Models run concurrently • Hybrid vertical coordinate • Coupled • Spanning all scales • Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro, climate and ecosystems applications ESMF-based System Global/Regional Model Domain Model Region 1 Model Region 2

  11. NCEP Production Suite Current - 2008 100 % GDAS NAM analysis FIRE GFS analysis HUR Rapid Refresh Data Processing Waves SREF Percentage of Capacity GENS/NAEFS NAM GFS RDAS Air Quality RTOFS CFS 1 2 3 4 5 6 Hours

  12. Reforecast SREF WAV HUR NAM CFS MFS GENS/NAEFS GFS RTOFS RTOFS Air Quality Hydro / NIDIS/FF Air Quality CFS & MFS RDAS RDAS RDAS RDAS RDAS GDAS GDAS GDAS GDAS GDAS NCEP Production Suite Next Generation Prototype Phase 4 100 % Rapid Refresh Percentage of Capacity 1 2 3 4 5 6 Hours

  13. NOAA applications and services using Navy operational global ocean model (NCOM) • Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVO) provides the U.S. Navy operational global ocean model (known as NCOM) output daily to NCEP in real time • NCEP Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) uses the Navy operational model to provide experimental SST and ocean surface currents forecasts to mariners; • NCEP distributes gridded real time NCOM data for East Pacific and West Atlantic Oceans, as well as global surface temperature, sea surface height and surface currents to coastal ocean modeling communities including the IOOS community to support their coastal modeling efforts; • NCEP provides gridded real time NCOM global surface data to US Coast Guard search and rescue operations and NOAA Office of Response and Recovery with 24x7 support for the data availability; • NAVO provides global NCOM data in delayed mode to NOAA's National Coastal Data Development Center (NCDDC) for distribution to National and International users

  14. NCEP’s Interaction with the Air Force • Backup • AWC, SPC by 15th Operational Weather Squadron at Scott Air Force Base • SWPC by 2nd Weather Group at Offutt Air Force Base • Test Beds • Space Weather Prediction Test Bed (ongoing) • WRF DTC (ongoing) • JCSDA (ongoing) • Col. Mark Zettlemoyer, chair of Management Oversight Board • COPC CONOPS • Shared processing; NCEP providing direct support to AF through GFS and for NA sector through WRF • Model Development: Land Surface Model (NOAH) • Support for Hurricane and Winter reconnaissance missions, used directly in Global Forecast System • NUOPC – Tri-agency partnership to address common operational global NWP needs for next generation model system

  15. NASA/NOAA/DoD JCSDA: NCEP- DoD Leveraging Opportunities • Focused on accelerated use of research and operational satellite data to improve operational numerical guidance • Partnership of the research and operational communities – shared model results within a multi-model ensemble forecast system • AF and NCEP gain by using same global analysis and modeling system; could extend into post-processed products (ensembles) • AFWA and NCEP are positioned to address new areas related to data assimilation, modeling improvements and product delivery (NUPOPC)

  16. FY09 Model Implementations • Global • GFS - Windsat and NOAA 18 SBUV data (12 Dec 08) • GSI – IASI long wave brightness temps; new version of radiative transfer; new background error stats; variational QC (24 Feb 09) • GEFS Upgrade - resolution increase to T190, stochastic forcing, concurrent generation (4th Q) • GFS - Downscaled GFS output for NDFD, NDFD Guam grid (4th Q) • Regional • NAM – GSI/WRF upgrades (12 Dec 08) • RUC – Level II Radar, TAMDAR, upgrade radiation, convection, land-sea parameterization (06 Nov 08) • SREF Upgrade - resolution increase to 32 km, 10 WRF members, increased physics diversity, improved BUFR output (4th Q) • HWRF – gravity wave drag formulation (3rd Q) • RUC – extend to 18 hours (4th Q)

  17. FY09 Model Implementations • Analysis • RTMA - HI/PR (03 Oct 08) • RTMA – Unify CONUS/AK/HI/PR codes (09 Dec 08) • Ocean • Great Lakes NDFD wind-driven model (17 Nov 08) • RTOFS – add Jason-2 data, upgrade of Data Assimilation (4th Q) • Air Quality • AK HYSPLIT smoke run (4th Q)

  18. Building Update NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Five NCEP Centers (EMC, NCO, HPC, OPC, CPC) NESDIS Research and Satellite Services OAR Air Resources Laboratory SSMC NCWCP WWB

  19. Building Update Approximately 270,000 ft2 Includes space for over 800 employees/contractors/visiting scientists Five NCEP Centers NESDIS research and satellite services OAR Air Resources Laboratory

  20. Summary • NCEP sustaining an aggressive schedule for updating all forecast components from models to service centers • Depends on partnerships (COPC, Testbeds, private sector,…) • WRF; DTC; JCSDA • ConOps NUOPC • Backups • Communications and data sharing • Many science-service opportunities/challenges exist • JCSDA; NUOPC; Ocean model transfer (global HYCOM) • Highest Priority Item: • Updating computers to Power 6 while sustaining model improvement schedule • Tracking situation with new building • Tracking performance: drop out team

More Related