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Demographic Transition Model. Population Change in England and Wales 1700-2000. Population Change. Outputs. Inputs. Deaths. Births. Natural Increase. Total Population. Emigrants. Immigrants. Migration.

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Demographic

Transition

Model



Population change
Population Change

Outputs

Inputs

Deaths

Births

Natural Increase

Total

Population

Emigrants

Immigrants

Migration

The total population of an area is the balance between 2 forces of change: natural increase and migration

Natural increase is the balance between birth rates and death rates




Doubling time
Doubling Time

This map shows how long it will take for countries to double their population if it continued to grow at the present rate


Demographic transition model
Demographic Transition Model

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Stage 4

Stage 5 ?

Total

Population

Natural

Increase

In Population

Natural

Decrease

In Population

Birth Rate

Death Rate


Stage 1 high fluctuating
Stage 1High Fluctuating

  • Low population

    • Increasing very slowly

  • High birth rate

  • High death rate

  • Tribes (Amazonia)

  • UK: pre-1780

Stage 1

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Total

Population


Stage 2 early expanding
Stage 2Early Expanding

Stage 2

  • Population growing at faster rate

  • High but decreasing birth rate

  • Decreasing death rate

  • Sri Lanka/Bolivia

  • UK: 1780-1880

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Total

Population


Stage 3 late expanding
Stage 3Late Expanding

Stage 3

  • Population still increasing, but rate of increase slowing down

  • Decreasing birth rate

  • Low death rate

  • Uruguay/China

  • UK: 1880-1940

Total

Population

Birth Rate

Death Rate


Stage 4 low fluctuating
Stage 4Low Fluctuating

Stage 4

  • High population, almost stable

  • Low birth rate

  • Low death rate

  • Canada/USA

  • UK: post-1940

Total

Population

Birth Rate

Death Rate


Demographic transition model1
Demographic Transition Model

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Stage 4

Total

Population

Natural

Increase

In Population

Natural

Decrease

In Population

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Ethiopia/

Niger

UK:

pre-1780

Sri Lanka/

Bolivia

UK:

1780-1880

Uruguay/

China

UK:

1880-1940

Canada/

USA

UK:

Post-1940


Reasons

Reasons

What do you think the reasons are for the changes at each stage?


Reasons for stage 1 high fluctuating
Reasons for Stage 1High Fluctuating

  • Little access to birth control

  • Many children die in infancy so parents have more to compensate

  • Children are needed to work on the land

  • Some religions encourage large families

  • Death rates are high due to disease, famine, poor diet, poor hygiene, little medical science

Stage 1

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Total

Population


Reasons for stage 2 early expanding
Reasons for Stage 2Early Expanding

Stage 2

  • Improvements in medical care

  • Improvements in sanitation and water supply

  • Quality and quantity of food produced improves

  • Transport and communications improve movements of food and medical supplies

  • Decrease in infant mortality

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Total

Population


Reasons for stage 3 late expanding
Reasons for Stage 3Late Expanding

  • Increased access to contraception

  • Lower infant mortality rates so less need for bigger families

  • Industrialisation and mechanisation means fewer labourers required

  • As wealth increases, desire for material possessions takes over the desire for large families

  • Equality of women means they can follow a career rather than just staying at home

Stage 3

Total

Population

Birth Rate

Death Rate


Reasons for stage 4 low fluctuating
Reasons for Stage 4Low Fluctuating

Stage 4

  • Rates fluctuate with ‘baby booms’ and epidemics of illnesses and diseases

  • Reasons for Stage 4 have improved and it stabilises

Total

Population

Birth Rate

Death Rate


Is there a stage 5
Is there a Stage 5?

?

?

?

Stage 5: Declining (or Depleting) Population


Limitations
Limitations

What limitations do you think there could be with the model?

  • It does not include the influences of migration

  • It assumes that all countries will go through the same pattern

  • There is no time scale

  • Reasons for birth rates and death rates are very different in different countries

  • And finally, is there a stage 5?


The end
The End?


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