Demographic Transition Model. Population Changes. The total population of an area depends upon changes in the natural increase and migration. The natural increase (or decrease) is the difference between the birth rate and the death rate.
Demographic Transition Model
It suggests that the population growth rates for all countries can be divided into 4 stages.
Stage 1 high stationary
Stage 2 early expanding
Stage 3 late expanding
Stage 4 low stationary
Both birth rates and death rates remain low, fluctuating with 'baby booms' and epidemics of illnesses and disease. This results in a steady population.
Stage 5??? declining
A stage 5 was not originally thought of as part of the DTM, but some northern countries are now reaching the stage where total population is declining where birth rates have dropped below death rates. One such country is Germany, which has taken in foreign workers to fill jobs. The UK's population is expected to start declining by 2021.
Stage 1Ethiopia / BangladeshUK: pre-1780
Stage 2Sri Lanka / BrazilUK: 1780 - 1880
Stage 3Uruguay / ChinaUK: 1880 - 1940
Stage 4Canada / JapanUK: post-1940