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Demographic Transition Model. Population Changes. The total population of an area depends upon changes in the natural increase and migration. The natural increase (or decrease) is the difference between the birth rate and the death rate.

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Population changes
Population Changes

  • The total population of an area depends upon changes in the natural increase and migration.

  • The natural increase (or decrease) is the difference between the birth rate and the death rate.

  • The birth rate is the number of live births in a year for every 1000 people in the total population.

  • The death rate is the number of people in every 1000 who die in a year.

  • If the birth rate is higher then the total population will increase. If the death rate is higher then the total population will decrease.


Interactive
Interactive

  • http://www.ngfl-cymru.org.uk/vtc/demographic_trans/eng/Introduction/Main1.htm part 1

  • http://www.ngfl-cymru.org.uk/vtc/demographic_trans/eng/Introduction/Plenary.htm Part 2

  • http://www.geographyalltheway.com/ib_geography/ib_population/ib_demographic_transition_model.htm GATW site



It suggests that the population growth rates for all countries can be divided into 4 stages.


Stage 1 countries can be divided into 4 stages.


  • Birth Rate countries can be divided into 4 stages. - Very High

  • Death Rate - Very High

  • Natural Increase - Population Steady



  • Children needed for farming countries can be divided into 4 stages.

  • They die at an early age due to illnesses

  • No family planning

  • And religious and social encouragement.



  • Disease countries can be divided into 4 stages.

  • Famine

  • Poor medical knowledge and so many people die.


Stage 1 high stationary countries can be divided into 4 stages.

  • little access to birth control

  • many children die in infancy (high infant mortality) so parents tend to have more children to compensate in the hopes that more will live

  • children are needed to work on the land to grow food for the family

  • children are regarded as a sign of virility in some cultures

  • religious beliefs (e.g. Roman Catholics and Hindus) encourage large families

  • high death rates, especially among children because of disease, famine, poor diet, poor hygiene, little medical science.


Stage 2 countries can be divided into 4 stages.


  • Birth Rate countries can be divided into 4 stages. - Very High

  • Death Rate - Falling Rapidly

  • Natural Increase - Very Rapid Increase



  • Children needed for farming countries can be divided into 4 stages.

  • They die at an early age due to illnesses

  • No family planning and religious and social encouragement. (same as stage 1)




Stage 2 early expanding countries can be divided into 4 stages.

  • improvements in medical care - hospitals, medicines, etc.

  • improvements in sanitation and water supply

  • quality and quantity of food produced rises

  • transport and communications improve the movements of food and medical supplies

  • decrease in infant mortality.


Stage 3 countries can be divided into 4 stages.


  • Birth Rate: countries can be divided into 4 stages. Falling rapidly

  • Death Rate: Falling more slowly

  • Natural Increase: Rapid increase






Stage 3 late expanding countries can be divided into 4 stages.

  • increased access to contraception lower infant mortality rate means there is less need to have a bigger family

  • industrialisation and mechanisation means fewer labourers are required

  • the desire for material possessions takes over the desire for large families as wealth increases

  • equality for women means that they are able to follow a career path rather than feeling obligated to have a family


Stage 4 countries can be divided into 4 stages.


  • Birth Rate: countries can be divided into 4 stages. Falling more slowly

  • Death rate: Slight fall

  • Natural Increase: Very slow increase



  • Family planning countries can be divided into 4 stages.

  • Good health

  • Later marriages

  • Improving status of women



  • Good health care countries can be divided into 4 stages.

  • Reliable food supply

  • People are living much longer


Stage 4 low stationary countries can be divided into 4 stages.

Both birth rates and death rates remain low, fluctuating with 'baby booms' and epidemics of illnesses and disease. This results in a steady population.


Stage 5 countries can be divided into 4 stages.


  • Birth Rate: countries can be divided into 4 stages. Slight fall

  • Death Rate: Stable

  • Natural Increase: Gentle decrease



  • Family planning countries can be divided into 4 stages.

  • Good health

  • Later marriages

  • Improving status of women



  • Good health care countries can be divided into 4 stages.

  • Reliable food supply

  • People are living much longer


Stage 5??? declining countries can be divided into 4 stages.

A stage 5 was not originally thought of as part of the DTM, but some northern countries are now reaching the stage where total population is declining where birth rates have dropped below death rates. One such country is Germany, which has taken in foreign workers to fill jobs. The UK's population is expected to start declining by 2021.


Examples countries can be divided into 4 stages.


Stage 1 countries can be divided into 4 stages.Ethiopia / BangladeshUK: pre-1780

Stage 2Sri Lanka / BrazilUK: 1780 - 1880

Stage 3Uruguay / ChinaUK: 1880 - 1940

Stage 4Canada / JapanUK: post-1940


  • Problems with the Demographic Transition Model countries can be divided into 4 stages.

  • based on European experience, assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization

  • many countries “stuck” in stage 2 or stage 3

  • reflects logic of continuous growth, an impossibility

  • Does not take into account immigration


Interactive test
Interactive test countries can be divided into 4 stages.

  • http://www.geographyalltheway.com/igcse_geography/population_settlement/population/popups/popup20.htm


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