Demographic Transition Model

1. Demographic Transition Model

2. The demographic transition model shows population change over time. • It studies how birth rate and death rate affect the total population of a country.

3. The five stages of the demographic transition model • 1. Total population islow but itisbalanced due to high birth rates and high death rates. • 2. Total population rises as death rates fall due to improvements in health care and sanitation. Birth rates remainhigh. • 3. Total population isstillrisingrapidly. The gap betweenbirth and death rates narrows due to the availability of contraception and fewerchildrenbeingneeded to work - due to the mechanisation of farming. The naturalincreaseishigh.

4. 4. Total population is high, but it is balanced by a low birth rate and a low death rate. Birth control is widely available and there is a desire for smaller families. • 5. Total population is high but going into decline due to an ageing population. There is a continued desire for smaller families, with people opting to have children later in life.

5. As a country passes through the demographic transition model, the total population rises. • Most LEDCs are at stage 2 or 3 (with a growing population and a high natural increase). • Most MEDCs are now at stage 4 of the model and some such as Germany have entered stage 5.

7. As populations move through the stages of the model, the gap betweenbirth rate and death rate first widens, thennarrows. • In stage 1 the two rates are balanced. • In stage 2 theydiverge, as the death rate falls relative to the birth rate. • In stage 3 theyconvergeagain, as the birth rate falls relative to the death rate. • Finallyin stage 4 the death and birth rates are balancedagain but at a muchlowerlevel.

8. Limitations of the model • 1. The model was developed after studying the experiences of countries in Western Europe and North America. Conditions might be different for LEDCs in different parts of the world. • 2. The original model doesn't take into account the fact that some countries now have a declining population and a 5th stage. Most texts will now show this stage as it is relevant to an increasing number of MEDCs in the 21st century.

10. Stage 1 - High Stationary • Birth Rate and Death rate are both high. • Population growthis slow and fluctuating.

11. Reasons Birth Rate ishigh as a result of: • Lackof family planning • High Infant Mortality Rate • Need for workers in agriculture • Religiousbeliefs .

12. Death Rate is high because of: • High levels of disease • Famine • Lack of clean water and sanitation • Lack of health care • War • Competition for foodfrompredatorssuch as rats • Typical of Britain in the 18th century and the Least EconomicallyDeveloped Countries (LEDC's

13. Stage 2 - Early Expanding • Birth Rate remainshigh. Death Rate isfalling. • Population begins to risesteadily.

14. Reasons • Death Rate isfalling as a result of: • Improvedhealth care (e.g. Smallpox Vaccine) • ImprovedHygiene (Water for drinkingboiled) • Improvedsanitation • Improvedfood production and storage • Improved transport for food • Decreased Infant Mortality Rates • Typical of Britain in 19th century; Bangladesh; Nigeria

15. Stage 3 - Late Expanding • Birth Rate starts to fall. Death Rate continues to fall. • Population rising.

16. Reasons: • Family planning available • Lower Infant Mortality Rate • Increasedmechanizationreducesneed for workers • Increased standard of living • Changingstatus of women • Typical of Britain in late 19th and early 20th century; China; Brazil

17. Stage 4 - Low Stationary • Birth Rate and Death Rate both low. Population steady. • Typical of USA; Sweden; Japan; Britain

18. Stage 5 - Declining Population • Birth Rate remains low. • Death rate begins to rise slightly, resulting in a declining population • Death rate rises slightly due to lifestyle choices such as a poor diet and smoking • Examples: Germany, Scotland