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Demographic Transition Model






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Demographic Transition Model. Population Change in England and Wales 1700-2000. Population Change. Outputs. Inputs. Deaths. Births. Natural Increase. Total Population. Emigrants. Immigrants. Migration.
Demographic Transition Model

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Slide 1

Demographic

Transition

Model

Slide 2

Population Change in England and Wales 1700-2000

Slide 3

Population Change

Outputs

Inputs

Deaths

Births

Natural Increase

Total

Population

Emigrants

Immigrants

Migration

The total population of an area is the balance between 2 forces of change: natural increase and migration

Natural increase is the balance between birth rates and death rates

Slide 4

World Population Changes

Slide 5

Global Natural Increase

Slide 6

Doubling Time

This map shows how long it will take for countries to double their population if it continued to grow at the present rate

Slide 7

Demographic Transition Model

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Stage 4

Stage 5 ?

Total

Population

Natural

Increase

In Population

Natural

Decrease

In Population

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Slide 8

Stage 1High Fluctuating

  • Low population

    • Increasing very slowly

  • High birth rate

  • High death rate

  • Ethiopia/Niger

  • UK: pre-1780

Stage 1

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Total

Population

Slide 9

Stage 2Early Expanding

Stage 2

  • Population growing at faster rate

  • High but decreasing birth rate

  • Decreasing death rate

  • Sri Lanka/Bolivia

  • UK: 1780-1880

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Total

Population

Slide 10

Stage 3Late Expanding

Stage 3

  • Population still increasing, but rate of increase slowing down

  • Decreasing birth rate

  • Low death rate

  • Uruguay/China

  • UK: 1880-1940

Total

Population

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Slide 11

Stage 4Low Fluctuating

Stage 4

  • High population, almost stable

  • Low birth rate

  • Low death rate

  • Canada/USA

  • UK: post-1940

Total

Population

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Slide 12

Demographic Transition Model

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Stage 4

Total

Population

Natural

Increase

In Population

Natural

Decrease

In Population

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Ethiopia/

Niger

UK:

pre-1780

Sri Lanka/

Bolivia

UK:

1780-1880

Uruguay/

China

UK:

1880-1940

Canada/

USA

UK:

Post-1940

Slide 13

Reasons

What do you think the reasons are for the changes at each stage?

Slide 14

Reasons for Stage 1High Fluctuating

  • Little access to birth control

  • Many children die in infancy so parents have more to compensate

  • Children are needed to work on the land

  • Some religions encourage large families

  • Death rates are high due to disease, famine, poor diet, poor hygiene, little medical science

Stage 1

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Total

Population

Slide 15

Reasons for Stage 2Early Expanding

Stage 2

  • Improvements in medical care

  • Improvements in sanitation and water supply

  • Quality and quantity of food produced improves

  • Transport and communications improve movements of food and medical supplies

  • Decrease in infant mortality

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Total

Population

Slide 16

Reasons for Stage 3Late Expanding

  • Increased access to contraception

  • Lower infant mortality rates so less need for bigger families

  • Industrialisation and mechanisation means fewer labourers required

  • As wealth increases, desire for material possessions takes over the desire for large families

  • Equality of women means they can follow a career rather than just staying at home

Stage 3

Total

Population

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Slide 17

Reasons for Stage 4Low Fluctuating

Stage 4

  • Rates fluctuate with ‘baby booms’ and epidemics of illnesses and diseases

  • Reasons for Stage 4 have improved and it stabilises

Total

Population

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Slide 18

Is there a Stage 5?

?

?

?

Stage 5: Declining (or Depleting) Population

Slide 19

Limitations

What limitations do you think there could be with the model?

  • It does not include the influences of migration

  • It assumes that all countries will go through the same pattern

  • There is no time scale

  • Reasons for birth rates and death rates are very different in different countries

  • And finally, is there a stage 5?

Slide 20

The End?

Adapted from Alsager School – with thanks.


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