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Risk Analysis of Swamp Area at Zürich Airport

Risk Analysis of Swamp Area at Zürich Airport. 1. Background. ICAO SARPs

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Risk Analysis of Swamp Area at Zürich Airport

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  1. Risk Analysis of Swamp Area at Zürich Airport

  2. 1. Background • ICAO SARPs • According to ICAO Annex 14, 9.2.2 where an aerodrome is located close to water/swamp areas, or difficult terrain, and where a significant portion of approach or departure operations takes place over these areas, specialist rescue services and fire fighting equipment appropriate to the hazard and risk shall be available • Situation ZRH • Zürich airport does not fulfill the ICAO requirements • A safety assessment/aeronautical study has been conducted (by Ernst Basler + Partner AG) focussing on the following questions: • What is the risk of an aircraft crash or a veer-off into the swampy area between RWY 14/32 and 16/34 at Zürich airport? • Identification of potential mitigation measures (equipment, infrastructure, procedures) • Analysis of the effectiveness of the proposed measures • Cost-effectiveness of measures ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

  3. Existing was Approved Non-Conformities identified Document background (historical basis) Co-ordinated by FOCA Classification Significant Safety ** assessment Major Safety Case ** Minor Responsibility Airport No ALARP* ? Update ALARP* ? Yes u.a. Cost-benefit considerations No Mitigate Yes Remove Hazard Compliance Checklist Standards and Recommended Practises * ALARP: As low as reasonably practical ** Co-operation with ANSP, if necessary ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

  4. The Area I Natural reserve !! ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

  5. The Area II ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

  6. Difficult Access ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

  7. System Definition Risk-based Approaches • Hazard identification • Risk anaylsis • Scenarios • Probability • Impact / Damage • Determine Risk • Risk Appraisal • Criteria • Risk Appraisal • Evaluate Measures • Risk Mitigation ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

  8. Accident Analysis I: Probability • Assumptions • 1980-2005 • A/C >15 pax • 330 accidents (RWY excursions, CFIT, loss of control, with/ without fires) • Within 1250m from Threshold • Within 750m from each RWY edge • Accident rates • 1.7 x 10-7 per take-off movement • 6.4 x 10-7 per landing movement ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

  9. Accident Analysis II: Impact Willingness-to pay: 10 Mio. CHF per life saved ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

  10. Collective Risk • R= movements (per year) x accident rate x probability of being in swamp x impact x value per life saved • „Risk equals the expected damage per year for a defined scenario“ ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

  11. Risk assessment • Probability* • 0.0023 Events / year (re-occurrence period of 440 years). The probability of an accident at ZRH within the swampy area is expected to be 1.7 * 10-8 per movement (approach or take-off). • Risk • 0.012 casualties / year and a monetarized risk of CHF 121'000.-- / year. • * All events within the swampy area at ZRH (3.8% of all excursions, veer offs) including a fire and at least a partial hull loss ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

  12. Thorough evaluation of 32 measures • Evaluation of effects of measure on: • improved accessability for crash fire tenders • improved accessability for other F&R means • evacuation of passengers/crew • transportation of passengers/crew out of crash site ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

  13. Risk mitigation measures • Selected Measures • Ungraveld road into parts of the swampy area • Footpath into the swampy area • Special vehicule to transport water/exinguishing agents • Special vehicule to transport water hoses • Transportable foldable mat to enable access for crash tenders • Rafts for adjacent pond ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

  14. Results I • Effectivenes of measures between -0.1% and -20% reduction of probability (outbrake of fire) and impact (confining fire, fast rescue of pax) • risk reduction between CHF 5‘000.- and CHF 13.- per year • cost of measures between CHF 470‘000.- and CHF 3‘700.- per year ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

  15. Results II Meaning: - Annual cost of this safety measure is 286 CHF - The annual risk reduction is 1 CHF ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

  16. Results III • None of the identified measures has a reasonable cost-benefit ratio measures ineffective • According to the ALARP* principle, the risks are acceptable • Swiss Civil Aviation Authority (FOCA) has accepted the study as a basis for showing compliance with the corresponding ICAO SARP • FOCA has requested Unique (Zurich airport) to take the following actions – gather refined data on ground resistance and accessability of area – examine/evaluate accessability of area – perform F&R exercises in the area • *As Low As Reasonably Practicable ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

  17. Thank you for you attention ! ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

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