risk analysis of swamp area at z rich airport n.
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Risk Analysis of Swamp Area at Zürich Airport. 1. Background. ICAO SARPs

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1 background
1. Background
  • ICAO SARPs
  • According to ICAO Annex 14, 9.2.2 where an aerodrome is located close to water/swamp areas, or difficult terrain, and where a significant portion of approach or departure operations takes place over these areas, specialist rescue services and fire fighting equipment appropriate to the hazard and risk shall be available
  • Situation ZRH
  • Zürich airport does not fulfill the ICAO requirements
  • A safety assessment/aeronautical study has been conducted (by Ernst Basler + Partner AG) focussing on the following questions:
    • What is the risk of an aircraft crash or a veer-off into the swampy area between RWY 14/32 and 16/34 at Zürich airport?
    • Identification of potential mitigation measures (equipment, infrastructure, procedures)
    • Analysis of the effectiveness of the proposed measures
    • Cost-effectiveness of measures

ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

standards and recommended practises

Existing was Approved

Non-Conformities identified

Document background

(historical basis)

Co-ordinated by FOCA

Classification

Significant

Safety **

assessment

Major

Safety Case **

Minor

Responsibility Airport

No

ALARP* ?

Update

ALARP* ?

Yes

u.a. Cost-benefit considerations

No

Mitigate

Yes

Remove

Hazard

Compliance Checklist

Standards and Recommended Practises

* ALARP: As low as reasonably practical

** Co-operation with ANSP, if necessary

ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

the area i
The Area I

Natural reserve !!

ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

the area ii
The Area II

ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

difficult access
Difficult Access

ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

risk based approaches
System DefinitionRisk-based Approaches
  • Hazard identification
  • Risk anaylsis
  • Scenarios
  • Probability
  • Impact / Damage
  • Determine Risk
  • Risk Appraisal
  • Criteria
  • Risk Appraisal
  • Evaluate Measures
  • Risk Mitigation

ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

accident analysis i probability
Accident Analysis I: Probability
  • Assumptions
  • 1980-2005
  • A/C >15 pax
  • 330 accidents (RWY excursions, CFIT, loss of control, with/ without fires)
  • Within 1250m from Threshold
  • Within 750m from each RWY edge
  • Accident rates
  • 1.7 x 10-7 per take-off movement
  • 6.4 x 10-7 per landing movement

ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

accident analysis ii impact
Accident Analysis II: Impact

Willingness-to pay: 10 Mio. CHF per life saved

ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

collective risk
Collective Risk
  • R= movements (per year) x accident rate x probability of being in swamp x impact x value per life saved
  • „Risk equals the expected damage per year for a defined scenario“

ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

risk assessment
Risk assessment
  • Probability*
  • 0.0023 Events / year (re-occurrence period of 440 years). The probability of an accident at ZRH within the swampy area is expected to be 1.7 * 10-8 per movement (approach or take-off).
  • Risk
  • 0.012 casualties / year and a monetarized risk of CHF 121'000.-- / year.
  • * All events within the swampy area at ZRH (3.8% of all excursions, veer offs) including a fire and at least a partial hull loss

ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

thorough evaluation of 32 measures
Thorough evaluation of 32 measures
  • Evaluation of effects of measure on:
  • improved accessability for crash fire tenders
  • improved accessability for other F&R means
  • evacuation of passengers/crew
  • transportation of passengers/crew out of crash site

ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

risk mitigation measures
Risk mitigation measures
  • Selected Measures
  • Ungraveld road into parts of the swampy area
  • Footpath into the swampy area
  • Special vehicule to transport water/exinguishing agents
  • Special vehicule to transport water hoses
  • Transportable foldable mat to enable access for crash tenders
  • Rafts for adjacent pond

ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

results i
Results I
  • Effectivenes of measures between -0.1% and -20% reduction of probability (outbrake of fire) and impact (confining fire, fast rescue of pax)
  • risk reduction between CHF 5‘000.- and CHF 13.- per year
  • cost of measures between CHF 470‘000.- and CHF 3‘700.- per year

ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

results ii
Results II

Meaning:

- Annual cost of this safety measure is 286 CHF

- The annual risk reduction is 1 CHF

ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

results iii
Results III
  • None of the identified measures has a reasonable cost-benefit ratio measures ineffective
  • According to the ALARP* principle, the risks are acceptable
  • Swiss Civil Aviation Authority (FOCA) has accepted the study as a basis for showing compliance with the corresponding ICAO SARP
  • FOCA has requested Unique (Zurich airport) to take the following actions

– gather refined data on ground resistance and accessability of area

– examine/evaluate accessability of area

– perform F&R exercises in the area

  • *As Low As Reasonably Practicable

ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007

thank you for you attention
Thank you for you attention !

ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 2007