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Development Hypothesis or Theory of Change. M&E Capacity Strengthening Workshop, Maputo 19 and 20 September 2011 Arif Rashid, TOPS. Development Hypothesis or Theory of Change. ………….Is a systematic exploration of the links between activities, outcomes, goal and the context. Slide # 1.

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Development Hypothesis or Theory of Change


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slide1

Development Hypothesis or Theory of Change

M&E Capacity Strengthening Workshop, Maputo

19 and 20 September 2011

Arif Rashid, TOPS

slide2

Development Hypothesis or

Theory of Change

  • ………….Is a systematic exploration of the links between activities, outcomes, goal and the context.

Slide # 1

slide3

DH or TC is a “Process and a “Product”

  • A structured thinking PROCESS that allows groups to turn their theories about what needs to change and why into a “causal pathway”.
  • A PRODUCT that illustrates the results of the change process.

Slide # 2

slide4

What is a “Causal Pathway”?

  • A step-by-step backwards mapping process through which a group determines ALL the preconditions necessary to reach an ultimate goal. In USAID terminology this is called Development Hypothesis (ADS 201)

Low Per Capita Income

Low HH Income

High dependency ratio

HH members have low level of skills

Limited employment opportunities

Limited access to financial resources

Large family size

Single income earner in the HH

Slide # 3

slide5

Elements of a Theory of Change/ Development Hypothesis

  • A pathway of change that shows the connections between longterm, intermediate and early outcomes
  • Statements that explain how the intervention fits along the pathway of change
  • Justifications that explain why the initiative expects change to occur

Slide # 4

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Why We Need One?

  • Participatory process
  • Creates realistic program expectations
  • Create a safe place to be reflective
  • Can improve monitoring and evaluation
  • Improves understanding about the program logic

Slide # 5

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Uses

  • Decision making: Whether to carry out an activity
  • Align of program activities with goals
  • Monitor the results chain
  • Evaluation

Slide # 6

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Other Advantages

  • Gaps between steps and outcomes become evident
  • Can refine project strategies to achieve the goal
  • Can revise the assumptions
  • Evaluations based on a theory carry more weight
  • Improves transparency

Slide # 7

slide9

The Pathway of Change

  • Intervention
  • Output
  • Outcome
  • Intervention

Influenced by our thinking

  • Higher level outcome
  • Output

Pathway of change

Underlying conditions

  • Outcome
  • Long term goal
  • Output
  • Intervention
  • Intervention
  • Higher level outcome
  • Outcome
  • Outcome
  • Output

Learn from our actions

Refine our thinking

Slide # 8

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Development Hypothesis “Steps”

  • Determine the Goal
  • Develop the Outcomes map
  • Identify which of the outcomes your project will address
  • Identify activities that will help achieve the outcomes

Slide # 9

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Overarching

Goal

Strategic Objective 2

Strategic Objective 1

Intermediate Result 1.2

Intermediate Result 1.1

Intermediate Result 2.1

Activities:

a)

b)

c)

Activities:

a)

b)

c)

Activities:

a)

b)

c)

Approximate correlation between RF and indicator levels

Impact Indicators

Higher level

Outcome Indicators

Low – medium level

Outcome Indicators

Outputs

Processes

Inputs

Adapted from FANTA 2 presentation

Slide # 11

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Overarching

Goal

Strategic Objective 2

Strategic Objective 1

Intermediate Result 1.2

Intermediate Result 1.1

Intermediate Result 2.1

Activities:

a)

b)

c)

Activities:

a)

b)

c)

Activities:

a)

b)

c)

Basic Purposes of Results Framework

PROJECT DESIGN/ PLANNING

Impact Indicators

Higher level

Outcome Indicators

Low – medium level

Outcome Indicators

COMMUNICATION

MONITORING

&

EVALUATION

Outputs

Processes

Inputs

Adapted from FANTA 2 presentation

Slide # 11

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How will you know if you have succeeded

  • Identify indicators for each outcome you want to address.

Example:

  • Outcome: Improved HH food production practices adopted and utilized
    • Change in yield (+)
    • Change in farm size (+)
    • Change in cropping intensity (+)

Slide # 12

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What must be determined for each indicator?

  • Who will be impacted?
  • How many will be impacted?
  • How much will it change?
  • When will it change by?

Slide # 13

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How will you measure the indicator

  • Determine:
    • What measurement tool to use?
    • When to measure?
    • Who will do the measurement?

Slide # 14

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Design Interventions

  • Determine the interventions (actions, strategies) to be used to achieve identified outcomes. What will be done, by who, how, and when?
  • Test your assumptions (Will these actions really work? Do your organization have the capacity to implement them? )

Slide # 15

slide18

Monitoring at every level helps pinpoint where a barrier may exist

Families had to

eat the seeds during

the hungry months

Goal

  • Poverty reduced
  • Household incomes remained unchanged

SO

  • Farm incomes increased
  • Only 5 of 50 households produced the new crop.
  • Production of non-traditional crops increased

IR

  • 1 bag of seed and 5 bags of fertilizer distributed to 50 households;
  • 50 households trained in cultivation of new crop.
  • We train farmers from 50 households to use new seeds, and
  • We distribute seeds and fertilizer

Activities

(Inputs)

Adapted from FANTA 2 presentation

Slide # 16

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This presentation was made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the responsibility of Save the Children and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.