The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

Major Forces Shaping Ontario’s Labour Market • The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are: • Growing demand for higher levels of skill and education. • An aging population resulting in slower labour force growth and higher rates of retirement, leading to possibleskills shortages. • Growingreliance on immigration to meet the demand for skills and for labour force growth. Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Major Forces Shaping Ontario’s Labour Market Higher Levels of Education and Skill Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Higher Levels of Skills and Education: Employment Growth • Over the past decade, most job growth has occurred in jobs requiring university or college education/training. College Diploma/Certificate University Degree High School Diploma Less than High School Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Higher Levels of Skills and Education: Projected Employment These trends are expected to continue in future: 2002-2007. Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Higher Levels of Skills and Education: Ontario Excels • The Ontario population has responded by becoming more educated. Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Higher Levels of Skills and Education: Ontario Excels • The Ontario adult population is now the most educated in the OECD. Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Higher Levels of Skills and Education: Challenges Remain Many Ontarians, including those with higher education and skills, still have difficulty getting jobs. Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Ontario Toronto Ontario Toronto Higher Levels of Skills and Education: Challenges Remain Youth continue to experience particularly high unemployment rates. Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Higher Levels of Skills and Education: Challenges Remain Immigrants also face face particular barriers to employment in many cases, giving them a higher unemployment rate than others in Toronto. Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Major Forces Shaping Ontario’s Labour Market Possible Skills Shortages Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Possible Skills Shortages: Changing Age Profile of Ontario By 2028, senior citizens will make up 20.3% of the population of the GTA and of Ontario, compared to 11.1% and 12.6% respectively today. Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Possible Skills Shortages: Gap Between Entrants and Exits There will be fewer new entrants to the labour force, and a growing number of people exiting the labour force due to retirement. Gap Between Population Entering Working-age (15) and Entering Retirement Age (65), Ontario, Historical and Projected Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Possible Skills Shortages: Slower Labour Force Growth The aging population will result in slower labour force growth in Ontario in future and there will be high rates of retirement from many key occupations. Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Possible Skills Shortages: High Rates of Retirements Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Possible Skills Shortages: Median Retirement Age in Ontario While the workforce is getting older, more Ontarians are retiring earlier, exacerbating the situation. Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Possible Skills Shortages: What are Skills Shortages? Demand > Supply • A skills shortage is an imbalance, or gap, that occurs when the demand for workers with a particular set of skills exceeds the available supply of those workers in the labour market. • Skills shortages may be cyclical or structural, short-lived or persistent. • Cyclical skill shortages occur with economic cycles. They are a normal feature of dynamic economies and labour markets. Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Possible Skills Shortages: What are Skills Shortages? Skills shortages exist only if……. The demand is “effective”; the jobs offer typical (prevailing) wages and conditions. The market does not clear the mismatch in a reasonable period of time. Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Possible Skills Shortages: Methodology Various tools can be used for measuring skill shortages. Each of these tools has significant limitations. It is important to be aware that there is no agreed-upon, definitive method for identifying or projecting skill shortages. Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Possible Skills Shortages: Economic Indicators Studies of skills shortages therefore tend to be sponsored by sectors or employer groups, to measure the opinions of employers, and to be on an ad hoc basis, covering specific sectors of the economy or specific occupations. As a result, the surveys are frequently subjective, are not comparable across sectors and occupations, and may not be very reliable. In general, employer surveys tend to over-state the extent of skills shortages. Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Possible Skills Shortages: Economic Indicators MTCU maintains a database of economic indicators to monitor and assess current occupational supply issues in Ontario. These are: Labour Force Survey Employment and unemployment rates Employment and average hourly earnings of full-time employees HRDC Administrative Data Employment insurance claimants Work permits granted to individuals to work in Ontario by 4-digit occupation Census Employment by 4-digit occupation, 1991 and 1996 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Possible Skills Shortages: Economic Indicators Use of these indicators suggests the following occupations appeared to have been experiencing tight labour market conditions in 2002: Electrical and electronics engineers Accommodation Service Managers Other Services Managers Financial and Investment Analysts Other Financial Officers Computer Engineers Computer Systems Analysts Specialists in Human Resources Aerospace Engineers Inspectors in Public and Environmental Health and Occupational Health and Safety Lawyers Paralegal and Related Occupations Industrial and Manufacturing Engineers Electrical and Electronics Engineering Technologists and Technicians Occupational Therapists Registered nurses Medical Radiation Technologists Tool and Die Makers Construction Managers Heavy-duty Equipment Mechanics Other Repairers and Servicers Technical Sales Specialists, Wholesale Trade Writers Editors Retail Trade Supervisors Supervisors, Plastic and Rubber Products Manufacturing Foundry Workers Travel Counsellors Process Control and Machine Operators, Food and Beverage Processing Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Possible Skills Shortages: Employer Reports • These indicators provide one source of data which must be “tested” against other reports such as employer surveys. • They are not standalone indicators of skill shortages. Furthermore, they reflect conditions in the recent past but not necessarily the present or the future. • They do not apply to non-competitive (regulated) labour markets (e.g. nursing) where factors such as government fiscal pressures may be affecting occupational supply or demand. • They are constrained by data availability (aggregation, skill, job vacancies) and do not reflect sub-occupations or local markets where shortages may exist. Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Possible Skills Shortages: Employer Reports Employer reports, often in the form of surveys by industry associations or Statistics Canada, are an important method of obtaining information on possible skills shortages. Despite their weaknesses, employer reports are valuable because employers are closest to market realities, and because employer reports of recruitment or retention difficulty reflect both demand and supply conditions. Employer reports can also provide information on shortages in regulated areas of the economy. Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Possible Skills Shortages: Employer Reports % Companies Reporting Concern Over Labour Shortages Unemployment Rate Source: Canadian Federation of Independent Business, Members Opinion Surveys # 24-51 47.8% Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Possible Skills Shortages: Employer Reports Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters: Types of “technical skills” in shortage reported in the 2001-2003 member survey Source: Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters (CME), 2001-2003 Management Issues Survey (Based on 532 company responses across Canada – about 200 from Ontario) Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Possible Skills Shortages: Employer Reports 2002 Auto Parts Manufacturing Association, Compensation and Human Resource Practices Survey Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Major Forces Shaping Ontario’s Labour Market Growing Reliance on Immigration Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Growing Reliance on Immigration In 2001, Ontario received 148,244 immigrants: 59% of all immigrants to Canada. Most immigrants settle in large urban centres. Between 1996 and 2001, Toronto received 53% of immigrants to Ontario. Distribution of Immigrants 10 Year or Less in Canada Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Canada 18.4% Growing Reliance on Immigration Foreign-born as a % of metropolitan population Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Growing Reliance on Immigration Foreign-born as a % of metropolitan population, 2000/2001 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Growing Reliance on Immigration 62 groups in Toronto have a total ethnic origin response count of 10,000 or more. Note: Respondents who reported multiple ethnic origins are counted more than once as they are included in the multiple responses for each origin they reported. Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census

Ontario Toronto Ontario Toronto Growing Reliance on Immigration 29% of Ontario’s labour force and 48% of Toronto`s labour force is made up of immigrants. Over the next decade, immigrants will be responsible for all or most of the labour force growth in Ontario and Toronto. Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Growing Reliance on Immigration Immigrants to Ontario are highly educated. Adult Immigrants with some post-secondary education and/or training in Ontario Source: LIDS data (landed immigrants only) Citizenship and Immigration Canada. Figures obtained by: Ontario Ministry of Citizenship, Immigration and Settlement Unit. Based on immigrants aged 18-64. Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Growing Reliance on Immigration Immigrants are facing increasing challenges finding and keeping good jobs. Earnings of male immigrants in cents per dollar of Canadian born males Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Conclusion Sources of Information for Career Planning Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Ontario Occupational Projections MTCU, with HRDC Ontario Region, conducts occupational projections for Ontario. These show the number of job openings we expect for over 500 detailed occupations for the coming five years; the current projections are for 2002-2007. These take into account expected job openings due to expansion of the number of jobs in the occupation, as well as expected job openings to replace existing workers who are retiring. These are NOT projections of future shortages or demand/supply conditions because they do not take account of the supply side – the number of people who will be available with the skills necessary to take these jobs as they come available. Information on job prospects and other information is used in Ontario Job Futures, which provides career planning information for 157 occupations. Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Ontario Occupational Projections: Shares of Growth by Occupation Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Ontario Occupational Projections: Shares of Growth by Industry Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Ontario Occupational Projections: Occupational Attrition Rates Attrition Due to Retirement and Deaths: 1996-2010 Average for all occupations: 28.8% Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Ontario Occupational Projections: Identifying Occupational Prospects The Ontario Government and HRDC Ontario Region combine the information on projected growth in industries and occupations with the information on projected attrition due to retirements, and other information on job trends, to assign job prospects ratings to 157 occupations in Ontario. The ratings are: Good (Relative to other occupations, employment prospects are above average). In the latest rankings, 28% of occupations fall into this category. Average (Relative to other occupations, employment prospects are about average). In the latest rankings, 62% of occupations fall into this category. Limited (Relative to other occupations, employment prospects are below average). In the latest rankings, 10% of occupations fall into this category. Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Occupations With “Good” Prospects in Ontario 2002-2007 Physiotherapists Registered Nurses Medical Laboratory Technologists and Pathologists' Assistants Medical Radiation Technologists Nurse Aides and Orderlies Psychologists Social Workers Secondary School Teachers Elementary School and Kindergarten Teachers Paralegal and Related Occupations Writers Technical Sales Specialists, Wholesale Trade Retail Salespersons and Sales Clerks Chefs Food and Beverage Servers Hairstylists and Barbers Carpenters Machinists and Machining and Tooling Inspectors Tool and Die Makers Construction Millwrights and Industrial Mechanics (except Textile) Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Mechanics Motor Vehicle Mechanics, Technicians and Mechanical Repairers Truck Drivers Financial Managers Information Systems and Data Processing Managers Sales, Marketing and Advertising Managers Retail Trade Managers Restaurant and Food Service Managers Managers in Health Care Manufacturing Managers Financial Auditors and Accountants Financial and Investment Analysts Securities Agents, Investment Dealers and Traders Administrative Officers Chemists Mechanical Engineers Computer Systems Analysts Computer Programmers Applied Chemical Technologists and Technicians Industrial Engineering and Manufacturing Technologists and Technicians Electrical and Electronics Engineering Technologists and Technicians Electronic Service Technicians (Household and Business Equipment) Specialist Physicians General Practitioners and Family Physicians Dentists Optometrists Pharmacists Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Occupations With “Average” Prospects in Ontario 2002-2007 Human Resources Managers Purchasing Managers Insurance, Real Estate and Financial Brokerage Managers Banking, Credit and Other Investment Managers Construction Managers Residential Home Builders and Renovators Financial and Investment Analysts Securities Agents, Investment Dealers and Traders Specialists in Human Resources Administrative Officers Executive Assistants Property Administrators Purchasing Agents and Officers Bookkeepers Insurance Adjusters and Claims Examiners Insurance Underwriters Medical Secretaries Receptionists and Switchboard Operators Accounting and Related Clerks Administrative Clerks Shippers and Receivers Production Clerks Purchasing and Inventory Clerks Civil Engineers Chemical Engineers Industrial and Manufacturing Engineers Aerospace Engineers Computer Engineers Architects Urban and Land Use Planners Computer Programmers Biological Technologists and Technicians Civil Engineering Technologists and Technicians and Construction Estimators Mechanical Engineering Technologists and Technicians Industrial Instrument Technicians and Mechanics Aircraft Instrument, Electrical and Avionics Mechanics, Technicians and Inspectors Architectural Technologists and Technicians Industrial Designers Survey Technologists and Technicians Veterinarians Chiropractors Medical Laboratory Technicians Respiratory Therapists and Clinical Perfusionists Ambulance Attendants and Other Paramedical Occupations Dental Assistants Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Occupations With “Average” Prospects in Ontario 2002-2007 Nurse Aides and Orderlies Lawyers and Quebec Notaries School and Guidance Counselors Economists and Economic Policy Researchers and Analysts Community and Social Service Workers Writers Editors Journalists Professional Occupations in Public Relations and Communications Translators, Terminologists and Interpreters Graphic Arts Technicians Audio and Video Recording Technicians Other Tech in Motion Pictures, Broadcasting and Performing Arts Graphic Designers and Illustrating Artists Interior Designers Insurance Agents and Brokers Real Estate Agents and Salespersons Retail and Wholesale Buyers Cooks Butchers and Meat Cutters, Retail and Wholesale Bakers Travel Counsellors Early Childhood Educators and Assistants Visiting Homemakers, Housekeepers and Related Occupations Electricians (except Industrial and Power System) Industrial Electricians Telecommunications Installation and Repair Workers Plumbers Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers Sheet Metal Workers Carpenters Cabinetmakers Bricklayers Heavy-Duty Equipment Mechanics Aircraft Mechanics and Aircraft Inspectors Motor Vehicle Body Repairers Electric Appliance Servicers and Repairers Stationary Engineers and Auxiliary Equipment Operators Crane Operators Heavy Equipment Operators (except Crane) Nursery and Greenhouse Operators and Managers Landscaping and Grounds Maintenance Contractors and Managers Papermaking and Coating Control Operators Plastics Processing Machine Operators Motor Vehicle Assemblers, Inspectors and Testers Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Occupations With “Average” and “Limited” Prospects, 2002-2007 Limited Secretaries (except Legal and Medical) Legal Secretaries General Office Clerks Computer Operators Tellers, Financial Services Geologists, Geochemists and Geophysicists Mathematicians, Statisticians and Actuaries Forestry Technologists and Technicians Drafting Technologists and Technicians Air Pilots, Flight Engineers and Flying Instructors Librarians Elementary and Secondary School Teacher Assistants Electrical Power Line and Cable Workers Farmers and Farm Managers Sewing Machine Operators Aircraft Assemblers and Aircraft Assembly Inspectors Average Electronics Assemblers, Fabricators, Inspectors and Testers Assemblers and Inspectors, Electrical Appliance, Apparatus and Equipment Manufacturing Welders and Soldering Machine Operators Machining Tool Operators Metalworking Machine Operators Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Some Further Sources of Labour Market InformationOntario’s 2002-2007occupational projections and career information:www.ontariojobfutures.netOntario Government’s (MTCU) monthly Ontario Labour Market Report:To be added to mailing list contact: LMIR@edu.gov.on.caFederal government’s (HRDC) pan-Canadian labour market information site, recently updated and expanded:http://www.labourmarketinformation.caFederal Government (HRDC) Ontario regional labour market data: http://www.on.hrdc-drhc.gc.caFederal Government (HRDC) Toronto area labour market data: http://www.on.hrdc-drhc.gc.ca/english/offices/toronto/welcome_e.shtmlForum of Labour Market Ministers’ reports: e-mail LMIR@edu.gov.on.ca Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are: