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CoPS has built SinoTERM: a Chinese multi-regional model based on TERM

CoPS has built SinoTERM: a Chinese multi-regional model based on TERM. To investigate issues such as: regional development planning food security trade policy national/provincial financial relations energy/greenhouse policy internal migration

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CoPS has built SinoTERM: a Chinese multi-regional model based on TERM

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  1. CoPS has built SinoTERM: a Chinese multi-regional model based on TERM To investigate issues such as: • regional development planning • food security • trade policy • national/provincial financial relations • energy/greenhouse policy • internal migration • cost/benefit analysis of transport infrastructure

  2. China is the countrymost suited to TERM • Big: 30+ provinces • Regional Issues • Environmental problems • Important inland and hinterland regions • A tradition of planning • Fairly good technical and data resources

  3. Advantages of TERM framework for modelling China • The only way to model 30+ regions “bottom-up” • A data strategy which preserves commodity detail and delivers results in finite time. • Simulation-specific commodity aggregation to suit particular issues • Allows detailed representation of transport costs • Better roads in Anhui increase trade between Henan and Zhejiang.

  4. 30+ is a large number of regions for a CGE model Climate change Regional differences in industrial structure Income from port activity servicing other regions Transport costs Regional Income differences

  5. Features of SinoTERM • Database: size 31 provinces x 137 sectors • Based on 2002 Input-Output table, with agriculture disaggregated by CoPS • And using a variety of regional data • For simulations, usually aggregated to approx 31 provinces x 45 sectors

  6. More Features of SinoTERM • 2 household types: Rural and Urban • Future Improvements: additional equations and data to model: • more detail in energy and agriculture sectors • labour migration • direct taxation • transfers between provincial and central government

  7. CoPS seeks Chinese partners: • able to participate in model-building process, by gathering data and suggesting best modification of TERM equations to Chinese priorities. • able to locate funds either from Chinese or foreign sources. CoPS has no independent funding to pursue this project.

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