Patterns of Migration: Ravenstein’s Laws and the Gravity Model

1. Chapter 3 Key Issue 1: Why do people migrate?

2. Ravenstein’s Laws of Migration • 19th century used data from England to outline a series of “laws” explaining patterns of migration • Migration impacted by push/ pull factors • Unfavorable conditions push people out of a place • Attractive opportunities pull people to a place • Economic factors are main cause of migration • Most migrants move only short distance • Each migration flow procedures a compensating counter-flow • Long-distance migrants go to centers of commerce and industry (economic opportunity) • Urban residents are less migratory than those from rural areas • Factors such as gender, age, and socio-economic level influence likelihood to migrate • Three categories: • Why migrants move • Distance they typically move • Characteristics of migrants

3. Gravity Model of Spatial Interaction • Applied to migration • Larger places attract more migrants than smaller places do. • Destinations that are more distant have a weaker pull effect than do closer opportunities if the same caliber. • Aka closer places attract more migrants than more distant places. • Mathematically • Multiplication of two populations divided by the distance b/w them • Gravity Model proposes an equation that balances distance and size in trying to predict spatial patterns • Limitations • Does not factor selectivity factors • Age • Education level • Human behavior does not always fit into predicted patterns

4. Terms • Migration: • long-distance move to a new location • Emigration: • moving from a particular location ( out-migration) • Immigration: • moving to a particular location (in-migration) • Migration Stream: • Pathway from a place of origin to a destination • Migration counterstream: people moving back to the place of origin from the new place • Gross Migration: • total # of migrants moving into and out of a place, region, or country. • Net Migration: • gain or loss in the total population of that area as a result of migration. • Net in-migration • More immigrants than emigrants • Net out-migration • More emigrants than immigrants • Mobility: • ability to move from one place to another, either permanently or temporarily. • Circulation: • short term, repetitive, or cyclical movements that recur on a regular basis, such as daily, monthly, or annually.

5. Why is it important? • Data has social, political, and economic consequences: • Out-mig. of highly trained professionals from Cuba, leaves Cuba with providing health care. • Low-labor costs have drawn low-skilled in-migrant workers • Can cause political issues • Example, the U.S. accusations that immigrants are “stealing” American jobs • Geographers concerned with why people migrate • Changing scale has had major implications on migration • With globalization, why do people still migrate?

6. I. Reasons for Migrating • Most people migrate for economic reasons • Cultural and Environmental factors also induce migration • Not as frequent as economic factors

7. PUSH/PULL FACTORS • A push factor induces people to move out of their present location • A pull factor induces people to move into a new location • Three kinds of push/pull factors: • Economic • Cultural • Environmental

8. Economic Push/Pull Factors • Push Factors • Not enough job opportunities • Pull Factors • Areas with lots of natural resources • Job opportunities • Areas like US and Canada attracted immigrants because of economic opportunities • American dream • Places that one people emigrated from, like Scotland, are now immigration “hot spots” due to new natural resources discovered.

9. Cultural Push/Pull Factors • Forced international Migration • Slavery • Political instability • Recent Example: • Lebanese and Kurds • Scattered due to war and civil strife • Lebanon lost a large # of population to migrations • Kurds never established autonomous state • Many left due to military aggression, and persecution • Other examples • Jews • Deportation of Armenians after WWI • Palestinians after establishment of Israel.

10. Environmental Factors • Pull Factors • Attractive locations • Mediterranean coast of France • Alps • Rocky Mountains • climate • Arizona • people with Asthma, allergies • Flordia • beach, warm winters • Thanks to improved technology people can live anywhere • Air conditioning • Transportation • communications

11. Environmental Push Factors • Adverse physical conditions • Flooding • Hurricane Katrina • Natural Disaster • Japanese earthquake • Nuclear radiation • Irish Potato Famine • Drought • Great Depression Migration • Sahel region of Northern Africa

13. Great Depression Migration

14. Intervening Obstacles • Where migrants go is not always their desired destination • Blocked by intervening obstacle • In the past, mainly environmental • Migration was on horse or foot • example: people trying to reach California during the gold rush often couldn’t cross Rocky Mountains, Great plains, or desert. • European Migration to America hindered by crossing the Atlantic Ocean • Sometime were told they were going to America, but weren’t taken there!! • Today: • Transportation allows for more migration • Trains, cars, airplanes • More political issues • Passports • documentation

15. II. Distance of Migration • Ravenstein’s laws • Most migrants relocate short distance and remain within same country • Long-distance migrants to other countries head for major centers of economic activity • Migration • Internal migration • Movement within a country • Types: • Interregional • Intraregional • International migration • Permanent movement from country to country • Voluntary/ Forced • Voluntary- choice to move • Forced- pushed from land

16. Internal Migration • Permanent movement within the same country • Shorter distances • Easier cultural assimilation Two Types: • Interregional • movement from one region to another region within the same country • From Bluffton, SC to Boston, Mass) • Intraregional • movement within one region • From a city to suburb • Example: • From Bluffton, SC to Hilton Head, SC

17. Historical Internal Migration : U.S. • 1st wave • Westward settlement • Manifest destiny • From Eastern seaboard to West Coast • Rural-to-urban • Industrialization cause • New jobs • 2nd wave • 1940s- 1970s • African-Americans migrating from rural south • To cities in South, North, and West • Mechanization of cotton • Defense jobs (WWI, WWII) • 3rd wave • Cold War jobs • Emergence of Sunbelt • West/ Mid-west growth too • Economic opportunity • Air conditioning • Cheap land

18. Internal Forced Migration • “Trail of Tears” Cherokee Indians forced to leave Georgia for Oklahoma • China • Mao’s cultural revolution • 10-17 million • South Africa • Apartheid, 1960-1980 • 3.6 million • Forced “Eco-Migration” • Bangladesh floodplain settlement of 1960’s • Ethiopia famine of 1984-1985 New Examples: Yemen running out of water China desertification Louisiana/ Alaska rising sea levels

19. International Migration • Permanent movement from one country to another • Two types: • Voluntary • the migrant has chosen to move • Economic reasons • Forced • migrant has been compelled to move by cultural factors

20. International Voluntary Migration • Usually occurs due to high wage differentials, job opportunities, family links, unemployment conditions, etc. • Temporary labor migration- guest workers • Transnational migrants: set up homes and/or work in more than one nation-state • Mexican migrants • Asian migrants

21. International Forced Migration: Refugees • Refugees are a case of forced migration • Refugee: • People who have been forced to migrate from their homes and cannot return for fear of persecution because of their race, religion, nationality, membership in a social group, or political opinion. • individuals who cross national boundaries to seek safety asylum • 14 million refugees in 2007

22. Refugees • Large refugee movement from Central Asia and Afghanistan after Sept. 11th • Two largest groups of international refugees: • Palestinians • Afghans • Two largest groups of internal refugees • Sudan • Colombia

23. Major Regions of Refugees • Sub-Saharan Africa • Tribal Ethnic Conflicts • Rwanda, Congo • Sudan • Darfur • Religious/ ethnic tensions • War-related • Zaire, Tanzania, Uganda, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Angola, and Burundi • The Middle East • Palestinians • Kurds • Europe • Fall of Yugoslavia/ Balkans • 7 million refugees • Southeast Asia • Vietnam • Cambodia • 30,000 refugees • Burma/ Myanmar • Dictatorial government • South Asia • Afghan refugees • Sri Lanka • 1 million

24. Internally Displaced Person • IDPs: • Individuals who are uprooted within the boundaries of their own country because of global conflict or human rights abuse

25. Zelinsky Model of Migration Transition • Identified by Wilbur Zelinsky • Change in migration pattern in a society that results from social and economic changes that also produce the demographic transition. • Stage 1 • High CBR/ High CDR • Daily or seasonal mobility in search of food • Searching for local necessities • temporary • Internal migration • Stage 2 • High CBR/ dropping CDR • High rate of Natural Increase • Overtaxing resources/ limited opportunities push out immigrants • Like decline in death rate, migration a result of technological change • International Migration and Interregional Migration • Rural areas to cities

26. Migration Transition Model • Stage 3 & 4 • Slowing growth rate • Result of social change • Fewer children • Principal destinations for international migrants • International Migration • Societies in stage 3 & 4 become the destinations of migrations from stage 2 countries • Stage 4: Less emigration, more intraregional migration • From cities to suburbs

27. III. Characteristics of Migrants • Gender • Ravenstein’s Laws • Most long-distance migrants are male • Most long-distance migrants are adult individuals • Reality • Reversed in 1990s women now 55% of U.S. immigrants • Mexican Immigration • Similar patterns • Up until 1980’s 85% of Mexican immigrants men • Now women majority • Family Status • Most immigrants young adults • Ravenstein right! • 40% of U.S. immigrants today between 25-39 years old • Increasing # are children • 16% under 15 years old

28. Migration Selectivity • Decision to migrate often fits into predictable pattern based on age, income, and other socio-economic factors • Migration selectivity • Evaluation of how likely someone is to migrate based on personal, social, and economic factors • Age • Most influential factor in migration selectivity • Americans are most likely to move between 18 and 30 • Education • The more educated people are the more likely they are to make long-distance moves • Brain-drain • Educated people leave • KY- Appalachian region • Brain-gain