Where is the growth coming from civil society to the rescue
Download
1 / 25

Where is the growth coming from? Civil Society to the Rescue? - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 53 Views
  • Uploaded on

Where is the growth coming from? Civil Society to the Rescue? . Will Hutton. Banking sector assets (per cent of GDP). 600. 500. 400. 300. 200. 100. 0. 1880. 1904. 1928. 1952. 1976. 2000. The rise of “ bad capitalism ” Size of UK banking sector. Per cent. 30. United States. 25.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Where is the growth coming from? Civil Society to the Rescue?' - tracey


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
Where is the growth coming from civil society to the rescue

Where is the growth coming from?Civil Society to the Rescue?

Will Hutton


The rise of bad capitalism size of uk banking sector

Banking sector assets (per cent of GDP)

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

1880

1904

1928

1952

1976

2000

The rise of “ bad capitalism”Size of UK banking sector


Long run equity capital ratios

Per cent

30

United States

25

20

15

10

United Kingdom

5

0

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Long-run equity capital ratios

Source: US – Berger, A., Herring, R. and Szegö, G. (1995). UK – Sheppard, D.K. (1971), British Bankers’ Association, published accounts and Bank calculations.


Where is the growth coming from civil society to the rescue

A BRAVE NEW WORLD: Recessions comparedNote: In the past it has taken between 36 and 48 months to return the level of output to where it was at the start of the recession. Source: NIESR


Where have the jobs been coming from over the last 30 years
Where have the jobs been coming from over the last 30 years?

  • Manufacturing – minus3.8 million

  • Health and Social care – 1.9 million

  • Professional, Scientific and Technical – 1.5 million

  • Administration and Business Services – 1.3 million

  • Education – 1.1 million


Where is the growth coming from civil society to the rescue

Knowledge based industries defined by the OECDNote: manufacturing classified by R&D intensity; services classified by ICT use and employment of graduates. Recreational and cultural industries recognised as knowledge based by EU but not OECD, and includes libraries and museums.


Knowledge economy and the 1980s recession and recovery

1.6

1.4

1.2

1

0.8

index 1980 =100

0.6

0.4

KE market based

KE public based

Manufacturing

Other Services

0.2

0

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

Knowledge economy and the 1980s recession and recovery


Knowledge economy and the 1990s recession and recovery

1.4

1.2

1

0.8

index 1990=100

0.6

0.4

KE market based

KE public based

Manufacturing

Other Services

0.2

0

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Knowledge economy and the 1990s recession and recovery


Where is the growth coming from civil society to the rescue

Market based knowledge services leading the current jobs recoveryAll figures UK workforce jobs, March 2010 to March 2011. Eurostat 2010 definitions of KE industries. KE market based services include information and communication, financial, professional, technical and scientific services, and arts, recreational and entertainment services. Other market services include distribution, transport, hospitality, real estate, other services. Production is manufacturing, construction, energy and water supply. KE public based includes education, health, and public administration. Total also includes agriculture and mining.


Where is the growth coming from civil society to the rescue

Knowledge based sectors leading the entrepreneurial revival recoveryNote: all figures employees, excluding health employment. Knowledge service industries are OECD definition and include business, high tech, and financial services. Other sectors include transport, retailing, hospitality and other services delivered by non-public organisations. SMEs defined as all with less than 250 employees.



The innovation ecosystem
The Innovation Ecosystem recovery

Openness

Access to

finance

Skills

Competition

Public research

Demand


Twenty first century prospects grand challenges
Twenty-first century prospects ? recoveryGrand Challenges

  • The mobile phone

  • Nanotechnologies

  • Energy from fusion

  • Advanced materials

  • Carbon sequestration

  • Space

  • Manage the nitrogen cycle

  • Water

  • Health informatics

  • Durable customised infrastructure

  • Customised medicine

  • The brain

  • Cyberspace security

  • Enhance virtual reality

  • Personalised learning


The rise of the experiential authors of our own lives
The rise of the experiential – authors of our own lives recovery

  • Air travel

  • Customised cars – Formula One forerunner for all of us

  • The adventure holiday

  • The shopping mall

  • The live gig

  • Virtual reality

  • The SIPP

  • The Sarkozy Index

  • etc etc


Where is the growth coming from civil society to the rescue

Some 21 recoveryst century jobs – UK Dept of Business

  • Body parts manufacturing and storing

  • Pharming – cultivation of genetically modified crops

  • High rise farming – cultivation in skyscrapers

  • Personal brand consultants for social networking

  • Customised avatars as teaching aids

  • Space guides

  • Miniaturisation doctors

  • Old age well being advisers

  • Care assistants


Potential sectors
Potential sectors….. recovery

  • Average life expectancy of S and P 500 company 45 yrs in 1955 – 11 years today

  • “ Manuservices” in aerospace, pharmaceuticals, defence, high tech engineering( cars, chemicals)

  • Low carbon economy – energy production, energy efficiency, green manufacturing plus associated services

  • Life sciences

  • Creative and cultural industries – design, electronic/digital media and publishing, games

  • High tech and business services – computer, business to business services

  • Caring and servicing the newly young old


New flexibilities
New Flexibilities recovery

  • 5/6 transformational GPTs likely during 50 year working life of a 2012 graduate

  • Open innovation business models new template – joint ventures, openness, porousness ( Unilever and “ open innovation orchestrators”)

  • Average expectancy of firms around 10 years

  • All skills and professions likely to become obsolescent

  • Need to commit to constant reinvention

  • Responsibility for own health, pension and transitional support between jobs

  • Vibrant civil society key platform for future growth


Some places are more innovative than others
Some places are more innovative than others recovery

160%

London

Milton Keynes

140%

Cambridge

Aldershot

Reading

120%

Derby

Edinburgh

Total GVA growth 1995-2008

Mansfield

Swindon

100%

Barnsley

80%

R2 = 0.402

Birkenhead

60%

40%

Blackpool

Stoke-on-Trent

20%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Proportion of employment in Private Sector Knowledge Intensive Industries (2008)


Where is the growth coming from civil society to the rescue

THE ENTERPRISING recoverySTATE AND

GOOD CAPITALISM


Good capitalism
Good capitalism recovery

  • Embrace the new and recognise change is the new normal

  • Good ownership – stewardship and performance

  • Innovate, innovate, innovate

  • Human capital

  • Finance to grow

  • Flexicurity

  • Public and private co-create wealth


The enterprising state a plan for public action and incentives for private action
The Enterprising State: recoveryA plan for public action and incentives for private action

  • Action is needed to strengthen innovation policy for the future in order to turn the UK into a global innovation hub:

    • Analyze where system failures occur: What kind of failures and what is the role of the actors and institutions in causing these failures?

    • Evaluate current policies: do they address the right failures in the right way? Do they cause inefficiencies in the innovation system?

    • Justify a plan for innovation policies for the growth of the UK economy


The enterprising state a plan for public action and incentives for private action1
The Enterprising State: recoveryA plan for public action and incentives for private action

Innovation policy for short and long run growth is about:

  • Eliminating system failure

  • Increase economic value pie and productivity, by

    • Facilitate ‘technological timely’ and ‘matching/complementary’ formal and informal institutions which are able to shape productive interactive processes in which

    • innovative agents (firms and individuals, research institutions, customers/demand, authorities, financial institutions/banks) can interact and create value in an open innovation process.


Where is the growth coming from civil society to the rescue

THE ROLE OF recovery

CIVIL SOCIETY


Flexicurity a new social contract to support good capitalism
Flexicurity – a new social contract to support good recoverycapitalism

  • From jobs as property to jobs as career building blocks in a fast changing environment

  • An end to No compulsory redundancy – mutual worker co-operatives hire labour tto SMEs with no redundancy costs but quid pro quo is high investment in skills

  • Mutual provides a wage even when worker not formally employed but worker agrees commitment to skills acquisition

  • Radical overhaul of education and skills curriculum

  • Northern Ireland Office is Employer of last resort

  • The Mutual co-operative issues bonds and may invest or lend to SMEs


But how much can northern ireland do alone
But how much can Northern Ireland do alone? recovery

  • Crucial juncture in Northern Ireland history – an end to the Irish tiger, possible Scottish independence. Where is the growth model? What does identity mean in a context of wrecked south and a fractured union?

  • The public sector is constrained for a decade.

  • The only option is private sector dynamism

  • But most of the tools and cash to create institutions and spend run out of Westminster

  • The Civil Society offer is the only potential unique selling point