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Presented by: Mary-Kay Harrity 05.06.11. The Yankelovich MONITOR. Paints a broad outline of the marketplace. Identifies “universal” demands and unmet marketplace needs that apply to brand-specific issues. Ages 16+ Nationally projectable. Methodology. Fielding 1: Macro trend analysis

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Presentation Transcript
slide3

The Yankelovich MONITOR

Paints a broad outline of the marketplace

Identifies “universal” demands and unmet marketplace needs that apply to brand-specific issues

methodology
Ages 16+

Nationally projectable

Methodology
  • Fielding 1: Macro trend analysis
    • 3,998 respondents
  • Fieldings 2-4: Tracking key measures and deep dives into Finances & Spending, Multicultural, Health & Wellness and Sustainability
    • 2,500 respondents each
slide5

Conventional Wisdom Upended

Divergence and Consensus

In Search of Fairness

The Future WillBe Social

conventional wisdom upended
Conventional wisdom upended

Economic hardship is only one catalyst at work; many rules seem designed for a different era

conventional wisdom upended1
Conventional wisdom upended

Children not required

41percent of Americans say having children is very important for a successful marriage, compared to 65percent in 1990

(Pew Research Center, 2007)

conventional wisdom upended2
Conventional wisdom upended
  • (Among 30-44) Share of husbands whose wives’ income tops theirs
  • (Among 30-44) Among married women, which spouse has more education?

Notes: Includes only native-born 30-44 year-olds.

Source: Pew Center and Decennial Censuses and 2007 American Community Survey (ACS) Integrated Public Use Micro Samples (IPUMS)

conventional wisdom upended3
Conventional wisdom upended

Working dads feeling work-life conflict more than working moms

Percentage reporting work-life conflict

Among dual-earner families with child(ren) under 18

Source: Families and Work Institute, National Study of the Changing Workforce, 2008

conventional wisdom upended4
Conventional wisdom upended
  • Stay-at-home dads

Fathers with working spouses whostay home to care for family:

2002: 105,000

2006: 159,000

(Census)

“But that's only part of the picture, says Aaron Rochlen, an associate professor at the University of Texas at Austin. Rochlen, who studies gender roles and psychology, says many dads with working wives try to work part time or consider themselves ‘consultants.’ But many are, in fact, the primary caregivers to their children. By that expanded definition, he says, there are about 2 million at-home dads. That number has also likely risen during the recession because about 70 percent of the lost jobs affected men.”

(“Stay-At-Home Dads Grapple With Going Back To Work,” NPR, 03.24.10)

conventional wisdom upended5
Conventional wisdom upended
  • Structural unemployment now our problem

“In the United States, unemployment has typically been a relatively brief affair. The vast majority of people who lost jobs soon found new work…the latest figures indicate that 46 percent of Americans classified as unemployed – meaning they are out of work and seeking a job – have been unemployed for at least six months. That is nearly twice the previous post-World War II high, set in 1983.”

(“When Being Out of Work Becomes a Chronic Condition,” The New York Times, 07.16.10)

conventional wisdom upended6
Conventional wisdom upended
  • Challenging the ROI of college

“Of the top 30 jobs projected to grow at the fastest rate over the next decade, only 7 typically require a bachelor’s degree according to the BLS…among the top 10 growing categories, two require college degrees: accounting (a bachelor’s) and postsecondary teachers (a doctorate). But this growth is expected to be dwarfed by the need for registered nurses, home health aides, customer service representatives, and store clerks.”

(“What’s the Key to Success in the United States?”, The New York Times, 05.14.10)

conventional wisdom upended7
Conventional wisdom upended
  • This is not your father’s recession

“Consumers are returning to the marketplace in ways that defy simplistic conventional wisdom…Prioritization has replaced accumulation as consumer’s primary shopping style…consumers do not have the financial wherewithal they used to have, but they have not given up their aspirations to the good life…most of their expenditures are fixed, so there is no financial adjustment that can free up significant additional funds…prioritization is the only financial strategy that can simultaneously enable consumers to spend to stay afloat.”

(“First Things First,” The Futures Company Finance and Spending View, 05.27.10)

conventional wisdom upended8
Conventional wisdom upended

Not frugality or indulgence – but both

Americans are broke – and depressed – and also swilling $3 lattes and waiting in line for iPhones.

Welcome to the schizophrenic economy

(“The New Abnormal,” Business Week. 07.29.10)

68%

Today

Agree: “Sometimes I just need to treat myself to something nice/fun even if I have to tighten up my budget in other places”

  • (Yankelovich MONITOR 2010 Finances & Spending Lens)
conventional wisdom upended9
Conventional wisdom upended
  • Store brands lead; national brands follow?

54 percent of consumers say “I prefer name brands,” compared to 46 percent who say “I prefer store brands”

(Yankelovich MONITOR 2010 Finances & Spending Lens)

thinking ahead
Thinking ahead
  • Expect to have to update assumptions about ‘the household’ and ‘the family’ on an ongoing basis
  • Stay alert to clients’ competition coming from outside – as well as inside – of category as consumers prioritize spending
    • Meaningful innovation is a key route to getting onto the ‘priority list’ today
  • Expect consumers to spend on favored ‘indulgences’ – but carefully within budget
  • Expect clients’ brands to need extra efforts to ‘woo back’ defectors to private label, even as the economy improves
slide17

Conventional Wisdom Upended

Divergence and Consensus

In Search of Fairness

The Future WillBe Social

divergence and consensus
Divergence and consensus

In a divergent marketplace,

it’s too easy to lose sight of the views people share

divergence and consensus1
A matter of diversity

A matter of splintering

Divergence and consensus

Divergence

Consensus

  • Not about unanimity
  • A subjective approach to identifying the commonalities that create shared experiences
divergence and consensus2
Divergence and consensus

Divergence: A diverse population

Household Diversity

Non-traditional households have overtaken “married with children”*

Religious Diversity

“The US is on the verge of becoming a minority Protestant country”**

Gender Identity

Lesbian, Gay, bisexual or transgender individuals estimated at 6.6% 18+***

Racial Diversity

5.3MM people reported to be of at least two races****

* Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2008 Annual Social and Economic Supplement, Internet Release January 2009

** Source: AFP reporting on the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life. Study, 02.25,08

*** Source: The U.S. Gay and Lesbian Market, 2008, Packaged Facts and Witeck-Combs Communications

**** Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin for the United States: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009 (NC-EST2009-03). Release Date June, 2010

divergence and consensus3
Divergence and consensus

Divergence: A splintered marketplace

Political Ideology

Broadband Divide

According to the FCC, between 14 and 24 million Americans still lack access to broadband

The “Creative Class”

A new social class of

knowledge workers, intellectuals, and artists driving growth by creating new ideas, new technology, new creative content

Media Cocoons

“People surround themselves with what they like, so they only read the news they like”

(zeropointinformation.com)

The Employed and The Unemployed

A two-track economy

divergence and consensus4
Divergence and consensus

Consensus: The future will look different

68%

63%

66%

65%

Today

Today

2009

2009

Agree “The recession will change our nation forever”

Agree “I’ll never spend my money as freely as before the recession”

divergence and consensus5
Divergence and consensus

Consensus: Not expecting to ‘settle’

Quality is no less important to me today than it has been in the past

  • 76%

Today

(Yankelovich MONITOR – Finances & Spending Lens 2010)

divergence and consensus6
Divergence and consensus

Consensus: Time for a world view

75%

66%

Today

Today

Agree “I appreciate the influence other cultures are having on the American way of life”

Agree “In order to be successful in today’s world, young people must have an awareness of cultures outside the US”

divergence and consensus7
Divergence and consensus
  • Consensus: Control’s the goal, but it’s still elusive

66%

70%

71%

Today

Today

Today

Agree “No matter how hard I try, I never seem to have enough time to do all the things I need to do”

Say being in control of your life is a sign of success and accomplishment

Say managing stress is important to them in their personal life today

8-10 on a 10pt. scale where 10 is definitely a sign of success, accomplishment and 0 is definitely not a sign of success, accomplishment

6-7 on a 7pt. scale where 7 is extremely important and 1 is not at all important

divergence and consensus8
Divergence and consensus

Consensus: Health is high on consumers’ radar

84%

62%

Today

Today

Agree “I’m trying to take better care of my health today than just a few years ago”(2010 US MONITOR Health & Wellness Lens)

Agree “Everyone pays the price when an individual leads an unhealthy lifestyle”(2010 US MONITOR Health & Wellness Lens)

divergence and consensus9
Divergence and consensus

Consensus: But getting healthy remains a challenge

68%

70%

71%

Today

Today

Today

Agree “There are more health risks in society today than ever before”

(2010 Global Monitor, US sample)

Agree “There is so much information about nutrition these days that it is confusing to know what you should and should not eat”

Agree “I wish grocery stores would make it easier to determine what foods are healthier than others”(2010 US MONITOR Health & Wellness Lens)

divergence and consensus10
Divergence and consensus
  • Consensus: Essentials – old and new

63%

65%

71%

Today

Today

Today

Say finding enough time for family and friends is important to them in their personal life today

Agree “I could notget by without the Internet”

(Yankelovich MONITOR 2010 Finances & Spending Lens)

Behaviors you do regularly: Stay mentally active by challenging yourself with puzzles, books, hobbies or interesting work

6-7 on a 7pt. scale where 7 is extremely important and 1 is not at all important

thinking ahead1
Thinking ahead
  • Anticipate continuing pressure from consumers’ determined to get what suits them best as an individual
  • …and help clients plan for more subgroups looking for recognition in the marketplace
  • Expect consumers to continue to value control
  • …and value information and resources that help them move ‘seamlessly’ through the demands of everyday life
  • Expect consumers to look for and appreciate health guidance/information that is easily understandable and easily useable
  • Explore new options for helping clients leverage consumers’ attraction to a ‘global experience’
slide30

Conventional Wisdom Upended

Divergence and Consensus

In Search of Fairness

The Future WillBe Social

in search of fairness
Economy in free fall; Wall Street melts down

Consumer confidence plummets to all time low 10.28.08

Foreclosure frenzy

Rising cost of food, gas, energy

Health benefits in jeopardy

In search of fairness

2008, 2009

in search of fairness1
Economy in free fall; Wall Street melts down

Consumer confidence plummets to all time low 10.28.08

Foreclosure frenzy

Rising cost of food, gas, energy

Health benefits in jeopardy

In search of fairness

2008, 2009

The reality…

Consumers believed…

Responsibility

  • That most institutions were taken by surprise
  • That most institutions had their best interests at heart
  • That the pain was shared
in search of fairness2
Anxiety, hope, patience

Bailing out the biggies in good faith

Owning our problems

Minimizing risk, considering consequences

Embracing self-reliance

Living within means, not above… or below

Brightsiding

Rebuilding outward slowly

In search of fairness

2008, 2009

Responsibility

in search of fairness3
In search of fairness

Self-reliance efforts and rewards resonate more

70%

64%

Today

2009

Better increase your chance of succeeding in today’s world by: “Becoming as self-reliant as possible”(over “seeking the help and guidance of professionals”)

(2010 Global Monitor, US Sample)

in search of fairness4
In search of fairness

Adjusting to new financial realities continues

67%

46%

56%

Today

Today

2009

Relate more to “saving for the future”than to “spending on something I want or need today”

Using your credit card less and instead using other methods of payments like cash or a debit card

in search of fairness5
In search of fairness

Getting help in adjusting to new financial realities

“Coming soon: credit and debit cards that cut you off when you disregard your own monthly budget. The service, called inControland already in use by some Barclaycard holders in Britain, is a sort of financial chastity belt that offers the potential to prevent a variety of budget sins and other money traps. Worried about your restaurant habit? If your bank adopts MasterCard’s service, you could tell it to have your debit or credit card reject any restaurant purchase above whatever monthly cap you set … When introduction begins in a few months, it will include only alerts for credit card customers; letting people set their own spending limits will presumably come later … Changing behavior, in the end, is the biggest challenge … MasterCard seems to have made it possible for your bank to become a partner in your self-improvement instead of an enabler of your misdeeds.”

(“Your Card Has Been Declined, Juts as You Wanted,” The New York Times, 08.14.10)

in search of fairness6
A still-slow economy

…and stubborn unemployment

Breaches of faith all around – from CEO’s to Congress, from Hollywood to the hardwood

Too many corporate abuses

Frustration with lack of progress

Our assumptions were wrong

In search of fairness

Today

in search of fairness7
A still-slow economy

…and stubborn unemployment

Breaches of faith all around – from CEO’s to Congress, from Hollywood to the hardwood

Too many corporate abuses

Frustration with lack of progress

Our assumptions were wrong

In search of fairness

Today

The reality…

Consumers wonder…

Stunned and outraged by the audacity of betrayal...

  • Was I conned?
  • Where are all the consequences for others?
  • Were lessons learned or is it back to business-as-usual?
  • Does anyone know what they are doing?
  • Where is the end to my crisis fatigue?

…in search of fairness

in search of fairness8
A way of acting or treating others

Treating like cases alike

If there is a hierarchy…

Levels need to be overt; criteria need to be public

Same criteria for everyone at that level

No favoritism

In search of fairness

What do we mean by fairness?

in search of fairness9
In search of fairness

“Even kids know it’s wrong to treat new friends better than old friends. At Ally Bank, we treat all our customers fairly. With no teaser rates, and no minimum deposits. It’s just the right thing to do.”

(Ally Bank TV commercial)

in search of fairness10
Skepticism advancing

Brightsiding challenged

Emotional and material privation

A new focus on self

Burrowing deeper into safer networks

Questioning social responsibility efforts

In search of fairness

Trends driving fairness

in search of fairness11
Skepticism advancing

Brightsiding challenged

Emotional and material privation

A new focus on self

Burrowing deeper into safer networks

Social responsibility 2.0

In search of fairness

Agree “Business is too concerned with profits and not enough with public responsibility”

70%

79%

67%

64%

65%

84%

Today

Today

Today

2006

2009

2009

Agree “If the opportunity arises, most businesses will take advantage of the public if they feel they are not likely to be found out”

Agree “Businesses care more about selling me products and services that already exist rather than coming up with something that really fits my lifestyle”

in search of fairness12
Skepticism advancing

Brightsiding challenged

Emotional and material privation

A new focus on self

Burrowing deeper into safer networks

Social responsibility 2.0

In search of fairness

35%

Today

63%

28%

Agree “I am increasingly skeptical of the claims made by brands on packaging and advertisements”

Agree “I don’t believe the claims made by environmentally friendly products”

Today

2009

(2010 Global Monitor, US sample)

(2010 Global Monitor, US sample)

in search of fairness13
Skepticism advancing

Brightsiding challenged

Emotional and material privation

A new focus on self

Burrowing deeper into safer networks

Social responsibility 2.0

In search of fairness

43%

Today

53%

52%

Agree “If Americans turn out to be less well off in the future than they have been in the past, they may actually be happier because of it”

2009

2008

in search of fairness14
Skepticism advancing

Brightsiding challenged

Emotional and material privation

A new focus on self

Burrowing deeper into safer networks

Social responsibility 2.0

In search of fairness

41%

50%

Today

Today

34%

54%

38%

58%

44%

  • Agree “I’ve got all the material things I need”(2010 Global Monitor, US sample)

Agree “When I buy any product, its style and design is as important to me as its performance”

(2010 Global Monitor, US sample)

2009

2009

2008

Today

2008

Of those working ft/pt agree “the recession has made my job/career less rewarding”

(Yankelovich MONITOR 2010 Finances & Spending Lens)

in search of fairness15
Skepticism advancing

Brightsiding challenged

Emotional and material privation

A new focus on self

Burrowing deeper into safer networks

Social responsibility 2.0

In search of fairness
  • Slowly building outward calls on ME to ensure the foundation is OK
  • Lack of fairness triggers self-defense instincts…
  • And gets competitive juices flowing
in search of fairness16
Skepticism advancing

Brightsiding challenged

Emotional and material privation

A new focus on self

Burrowing deeper into safer networks

Social responsibility 2.0

In search of fairness

67%

61%

Today

2009

Agree “I work hard at coming out on top in every situation — from the least important to the most important”

50%

49%

56%

55%

53%

53%

2009

2008

2009

2008

2008

2007

47%

47%

Today

Today

Agree “There is a sense of community where I live”

Agree “We should do what is good for the planet even if it harms the U.S. economy”

(2010 Global Monitor, US sample)

in search of fairness17
Skepticism advancing

Brightsiding challenged

Emotional and material privation

A new focus on self

Burrowing deeper into safer networks

Social responsibility 2.0

In search of fairness
  • More intense scrutiny of all connections: My personal relationships; my community; my brands; my networks
  • The word of the year?

“Unfriend”

in search of fairness18
Skepticism advancing

Brightsiding challenged

Emotional and material privation

A new focus on self

Burrowing deeper into safer networks

Social responsibility 2.0

In search of fairness

43%

59%

45%

53%

2009

Today

2008

2009

51%

(Among those using social networking sites at least weekly) Agree “I am concerned that the information I put on social networking sites will be misused by others”

Today

  • Agree “I am enthusiastic about new technology that can enable me to find and interact with like-minded people”(2010 Global Monitor, US sample)

(2010 Global Monitor, US sample)

in search of fairness19
Skepticism advancing

Brightsiding challenged

Emotional and material privation

A new focus on self

Burrowing deeper into safer networks

Social responsibility 2.0

In search of fairness
  • Belief in the power to make a difference through the marketplace continues
  • But consumers feeling distanced from social responsibility efforts
    • A cluttered and crowded arena; less a competitive advantage, more a price of entry
    • A matter of relevance: Your cause may not be my cause
    • A more sophisticated perspective
in search of fairness20
Skepticism advancing

Brightsiding challenged

Emotional and material privation

A new focus on self

Burrowing deeper into safer networks

Social responsibility 2.0

In search of fairness

69%

Today

68%

69%

64%

Agree “I feel that I can make a difference to the world around me through the choices I make and the actions I take”

Agree “Most companies only make claims about their socially responsible efforts to try to sell me more of their products”

2009

2008

Today

(2010 Global MONITOR, US sample)

(2010 Global MONITOR, US sample)

in search of fairness21
Skepticism advancing

Brightsiding challenged

Emotional and material privation

A new focus on self

Burrowing deeper into safer networks

Social responsibility 2.0

In search of fairness

63%

71%

65%

63%

2007

2009

2008

Today

Agree “When a company donates to or does something for my school or community, I think it’s only right that my family and I try to buy things from that company as often as possible”

Agree more with:

23%

32%

“In terms of making a real difference in the world, it doesn’t matter which companies I choose to do business with”

2009

Today

75%

66%

“By choosing to do business with companies that are more socially responsible, I can make a real difference in this world”

2009

Today

thinking ahead2
Thinking ahead
  • Anticipate consumers holding clients to the new criterion of ‘fairness’
  • Elevate transparency from an option to a mandate
  • Expect that consumers will need ‘proof’ in the form of products, service, messaging that are truly meaningful in order to engage with brand
  • Explore new opportunities for clients to help consumers deal with feelings of ‘emotional deprivation’
      • Rouse a sense of feeling “alive”
      • Redesign the everyday and make ordinary experiences special
      • Provide opportunities for occasional spontaneity and escape routes
      • Deliver energy boosts – physical and emotional
slide54

Conventional Wisdom Upended

Divergence and Consensus

In Search of Fairness

The Future WillBe Social

the future will be social
The future will be social

With people more and more deeply embedded in narrowly drawn networks, the importance of social influences is accelerating and leading to an elemental change in the character of the marketplace

the future will be social1
The future will be social

Top 10 sectors by share of internet time

Source: The Nielsen Company.

the future will be social2
The future will be social

Social influences: From background to foreground

The future…

Context

Top Down

Access

Collaboration

  • Controlled by authority
  • Edited
  • Limited access
  • Participatory
  • Customization
  • Universal access
  • Still controlled by authority
  • More open
  • More democratized access
  • Specialized, tailored, filtered
  • Vetting info through close personal connections
  • Social stream*

*“Information is becoming less of a destination that we seek online. Instead we are expecting it to come to us in a social stream.” (Anthony Rotolo, assistant professor in the School of Social Information at Syracuse University)

the future will be social3
The future will be social

A ‘push back’ developing?

50%

54%

Today

Today

Agree “I am greatly annoyed with the amount of advertising and branded pages on social networking sites (like facebook and Twitter”)*

Have ever “friend-ed” or “become a fan” of a brand or company on a social networking site (like facebook and Twitter)*

Millennials

Millennials

64%

64%

Xers

Xers

59%

49%

Boomers

Boomers

38%

42%

Matures

Matures

42%

33%

*Among those who visit social networking sites

thinking ahead3
Thinking ahead
  • Expect the imperative to be creating ways that clients are invited into consumers’ conversation about life – without organizing the conversation around brand
  • Expect the balance of power to continue shifting in the direction of ‘consumer-mediated’ brand messages
  • Plan for new and innovative ways to target social networks – rather than collections of individuals
  • Prepare for greater sensitivity to too much connection – and more pushback on perceived brand ‘intrusions’
demands on brands
Demands on brands

Build a bond of faith by helping clients be a brand with soul

  • Brands with soul…
    • Convey humanity
    • Manifest an “organic” goodness
    • Never do harm
    • Have a face/voice that is real to people
    • Have a values core that is steadfast and nurtured
    • Stay constant in bad times, as well as good times
slide62

Thank you!

For questions please contact:

Mary-Kay HarritySVP/East Region

203-229-0239

Mary-Kay.Harrity@thefuturescompany.com

Amy PleasantAccount Executive352-333-0233Amy.Pleasant@thefuturescompany.com