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Understand the temporal information from data to determine cause and effect relationships. Explore Granger causality to determine if wage inflation leads to price inflation or vice versa. Learn how to build models, analyze observational data, and conduct experiments using Bayesian networks and Randomized Controlled Trials. Avoid bias and explore bandit algorithms for response rate optimization. Click to acquire new customers and retain existing ones effectively.
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Establishing Cause and Effect from Data Jason McFall, Causata
Use temporal information Causes precede effects
Granger causality Does wage inflation lead to price inflation, or vice versa? U W P X
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Analysing observational data is hard Bayesian networks D G Im IR BP U T X P X W
Experiment Put the science into data science
Randomised Controlled Trials INTERVENTION Measure outcomes for both groups Split population randomly into two groups CONTROL
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Bandit algorithms Including random exploration
Regulated exploration/exploitation response rate
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Beware of bias Credit: Flickr winnifredxoxo
Summary Analysing observational data is HARD. It’s often much easier to do experiments! Randomise Use concurrent controls Be alert to bias 1 2 3 4