Outline • Does democratizations continue and make the whole world democratized? • If the third wave came to a halt, would it be followed by a significant third reverse wave? 1. Third Wave Causes: Continuing, Weakening, Changing? 2. The Possibility of the Third Reverse Wave 3. The Obstacles to and Opportunities for Democratization that may exist in those countries that as of 1990 had not democratized.
1. The Cause of the third wave~Continuing, Weakening or Changing?~ ①Change in doctrines and Activities of the Catholic Church • To what extent would the Catholic Church continue to be the potent force for democratization that it had been in the 1970s? • Were the attitudes of the Vatican concerning birth control, abortion, women priests, and other issues consistent with the promotion of democracy in the broader society and polity?
②External Factor 1. European Community • Turkey wanted to reinforce modernizing and democratic tendencies and isolate the forces supporting Islamic fundamentalism. • Should EC expand its membership? If so, should priority go to European Free Trade Association members, or to Eastern Europeans, or Turkey? 2. Soviet Union • There seemed little more the Soviet Union could do or was likely to do to promote democracy outside its borders.
③Snowballing Effect • The impact of snowballing on democratization was clearly evident in 1990 in Bulgaria, Romania, Yugoslavia, Mongolia, Nepal, Albania, some Arab and African countries. • In the absence of favorable conditions in the affected country, snowballing alone is a weak cause of democratization. • The economic and social conditions favorable to the existence of democracy did not exist throughout the world. Short Summary • By 1990 many of the original causes of the third wave had been significantly weakened or exhausted.
2. Third Reverse Wave?~The Problem of Consolidation~ ①The causes of shifts from authoritarianism to democracy in the first and second reverse wave. • The weakness of democratic values among key elite groups and the general public • Economic crisis or collapse that intensified social conflict and enhanced the popularity of remedies that could only be imposed by authoritarian governments • Social and political polarization often produced by leftist governments attempting to introduce or appearing to introduce too may major socioeconomic reforms too quickly • The determination of conservative middle- and upper-class groups to exclude populist and leftist movements and lower-class groups from political power • The breakdown of law and order resulting from terrorism or insurgency • Intervention or conquest by a nondemocratic foreign government • Snowballing in the from of the demonstration effects of the collapse or overthrow of democratic systems in other countries
②Military Coup or Executive Coup • Transitions from democracy to authoritarianism were almost always produced by those in power or close to power n the democratic system.
③New Forms of Authoritarian Rule • Democratic systems were replaced by historically new forms of authoritarian rule.- fascism and bureaucratic-authoritarianism 1.Systemic failures of democratic regimes to operate effectively could undermine their legitimacy. - international economic collapse 2. Snowballing effect 3. A lack of precondition for democracy 4. Developments of nondemocratic regime 5. New forms of authoritarian rule- Authoritarian nationalism, Religious fundamentalism, Oligarchic authoritarianism, Populist dictatorships, Communal dictatorships, Technocratic electronic dictatorship
3. Future Democratization~Obstacles and Opportunities~ 4 regions that did not have democratic regimes. • Homegrown Marxist-Leninist regimes • Sub-Saharan African countries • Islamic Countries • East Asian countries
①Politics • The absence of experience with democracy • The death or departure from office of long-term dictatorship leaders “Were the obstacles to liberalization in these countries the origins and nature of the regime, the long duration of their leaders in power, or their poverty and economic backwardness?” • The Lack of Political LeadershipOne serious impediment to democratization was the absence or weakness of real commitment to democratic values among political leaders in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. “These leaders won power through the electoral system and then used their power to undermine that system.”
②Culture • The Restrictive Version・・・Democracy has a relatively narrow base both in time and in space. Democracy, in short, was appropriate only for northwestern and perhaps central European countries and their settler colony offshoots. • Less Restrictive Version・・・One or more cultures are peculiarly hostile to it.ⅰ. Confucianismⅱ. Islam
Confucianism • Confucian societies lacked a tradition of rights against the state; to extent that individual rights did exist, they were created by the state. Group over the individual, authority over liberty, responsibility over rights. • China – “new authoritarianism” • Taiwan・rapid economic growth and social development・fundamental change in Chinese political culture,・the emergence of substantial entrepreneurial class • KoreaIn the late 1980s, urbanization, education, the development of a substantial middle class, and the impressive spread of Christianity all weakened Confucianism.
East Asian Democratic Institutions • Democracy without turnover –more dependent on performance legitimacy-Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia- • What happens if and when eight percent GNP growth rates disappear; unemployment, inflation, and other forms of economic distress escalate; social and economic conflicts intensify?-Western democracy ・・・ turn the incumbents out-dominant-party democracy ・・・ revolutionary change in a political system based on the assumption one party would always be in power and other parties always out • To what extent does the East Asian dominant-party combination of Western procedures and Confucian values presuppose sustained substantial economic growth? • Can this system last during prolonged economic downturn or stagnation?
Islam • To the extent that governmental legitimacy and policy flow from religious doctrine and religious expertise, Islamic concepts of politics differ from and contradict the premises of democratic politics. • ExceptionsTurkey – interrupted by occasional military interventionLebanon- oligarchy and Christianity • Whatever the compatibility of Islam and democracy in theory, in practice they have not gone together. • Would the existing governments continue to open up their politics and hold elections in which Islamic groups could compete freely and equally? • Would the Islamic groups gain majority support in those elections?
Some Counter-arguments to Cultural Obstacles • Similar cultural arguments have not held up in the past. • Great historic cultural traditions, such as Islam and Confucianism, are highly complex bodies of ideas, beliefs, doctrines, assumptions, writings, and behavior patters. • Even if the culture of a country is at one point an obstacle to democracy, cultures historically are dynamic rather than passive.
③Economics • Transition zone at the upper-middle levels of economic development“Poverty is a principal and probably the principal obstacle to democratic development. The future of democracy depends on the future of economic development. Obstacles to economic development are obstacles to the expansion of democracy.” • the Middle East and North Africa?Economic vs. Culture Short Summary • In China, the obstacles to democratization in 1990 were political, economic, and cultural; in Africa, they were overwhelmingly economic; in the rapidly developing countries of East Asia and in many Islamic countries, they were primarily cultural.
Conclusion • “Economic development makes democracy possible; political leadership makes it real.”1. Economic development2. Political Leadership • Cautions1. the difficulty of economic development by late developing countries2. New forms of authoritarianism • Modernization – industrialization and interrelated economy -(Ch. 2)Human rights come along with modernization. • Universal Modernization (Jack Donnelly) Democratic Consolidation