Presentation Transcript

1. US ForeignPolicy in CentralAsia in the 1990’s

   Dr. Anar Somuncuoğlu
2. The New WorldOrder End of confrontation Western aid and assistance Washington Consensus
3. Western Aidanditsconditions Operation Provide Hope (Washington Coordinating Conference) that occurred in the winter of 1991-1992, was aimed at “to preserve the promise of freedom in the new independent states” (James Baker, Secretary of State) Lisbon Conference on Assistance to the New Independent States, Portugal, May 24, 1992. According to Baker, there were three tasks that should dominate the work at the conference: Taking steps to prevent future humanitarian emergence Focusing technical assistance to support microeconomic and structural reform Beginning consultations on the future of coordinating process According to Baker, the new independent states have a responsibility to accelerate microeconomic and macroeconomic reforms.
4. Baker’sPrinciples Self-determinationwithoutviolence Respect of Borders Support of Democracy Safeguarding of HumanRights RespectforInternationalLaw
5. Washington Consensus “Washington Consensus”- the proposition that the economic reform packages of the Washington based international organizations represent international standards and best practices. Shocktherapy: quickliberalisationandstructuralreforms
6. TheFall of theSovietUnion Economiccrisis Perestroyka, glasnost: politicalreformsanddiscontent Disintegration: economicandpoliticalstrugglebetweencenterandtheSovietrepublics Nationalismand self-determination Thecollapse of communistideology
7. FREEDOM SupportAct (October 24, 1992) “The collapse of the Soviet Union provides America with a once-in- a-century opportunity to help freedom take root and flourish in the lands of Russia and Eurasia. Their success in democracy and open markets will directly enhance our national security. The growth of freedom there will create business and investment opportunities for Americans and multiply the opportunities for friendship between our peoples. Just as Democrats and Republicans united together to fight for freedom during the Cold War, we must remain united to win the peace.”
8. “The "FREEDOM Support Act of 1992" provides a flexible framework to constructively influence the fast-changing and unpredictable events transforming Russia and Eurasia.” (FREEDOM SupportAct) According to Baker, the act supports freedom by bolstering reform. The act “will help create opportunities… to all the peoples of the former Soviet Union- and for Americans and American business.” (Baker, “From Cold War to Democratic Peace”)
9. Clinton’sSecurityStrategy: engagementandenlargement “If we exert our leadership abroad, we can make America safer and more prosperous — bydeterring aggression, by fostering the peaceful resolution of dangerous conflicts, by opening foreign markets, by helping democratic regimes and by tackling global problems.” “Our national security strategy is based on enlarging the community of market democracies while deterring and containing a range of threats to our nation, our allies and our interests. The more that democracy and political and economic liberalization take hold in the world, particularly in countries of geostrategic importance to us, the safer our nation is likely to be and the more our people are likely to prosper.” (NSS 1995)
10. “SoftPower” “It is the ability to get what you want through attraction rather than coercion or payments. It arises from the attractiveness of a country’s culture, political ideals, and policies. When our policies are seen as legitimate in the eyes of others, our soft power is enhanced…When you can get others to admire your ideals and to want you want, you do not have to spend as much on sticks and carrots to move them in your direction.” (Joseph S. Nye, Jr.)
11. CentralAsia: differentpaths Differentcountriesdifferentpaths Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan: rapidliberalisation UzbekistanPath: “step by step” Turkmenistan: oldstyle Tajikistan: politicalturmoil, andtheninternalwar
12. Theconsequences of reforms 1990s: “New Stone Age” A market economywithoutrule of law Oligarchicstructure of Kazakheconomy Economicliberalisationbyauthoritarianmeans Economicreformsandpoliticalreforms TurkmenistanandUzbekistan: stateandeconomy
13. Americansecurityinterests in CentralAsia: thebeginning, covertoperation "According to the official version of history, CIA aid to the Mujahideen began during 1980, that is to say, after the Soviet army invaded Afghanistan, 24 Dec 1979. But the reality, secretly guarded until now, is completely otherwise Indeed, it was July 3, 1979 that President Carter signed the first directive for secret aid to the opponents of the pro-Soviet regime in Kabul. And that very day, I wrote a note to the president in which I explained to him that in my opinion this aid was going to induce a Soviet military intervention." (Former National Security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski, Interview with Le NouvelObservateur, 15-21 January 1998)
14. American Grand Strategy “A state's grand strategy is its plan for making itself secure. Grand strategy identifies the objectives that must be achieved to produce security, and describes the political and military actions that are believed to lead to this goal.” (Stephen Walt) “Since the Second World War, the main objective of U.S. grand strategy has been to prevent territorial expansion by the Soviet Union while avoiding a major war. Although both ends and means have varied over time, the central elements of this strategy-commonly known as "containment”-have been military alliances with Western Europe and Japan and the deployment of U.S. armed forces in Europe and the Far East.” (Stephen Walt)
15. Reagan Doctrine
16. 1990’s “The highest American priority in Central Asia is Russia. The key American, indeed global, interest is to see Russia evolve as democratic and moderate member of the international community. There can be no return to the Cold War era. American policies in the former Soviet Union must devote priority attention to that goal… It does mean that we need to keep a very clear eye on the nature of relations between Russia and the Central Asia republics…” (Graham Fuller)
17. Nucleararms Kazakhstan inherits the world’s fourth largest nuclear arsenal, including 1,040 nuclear warheads for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) of 1 megaton TNT-equivalent each, 104 RS-20 ICBMs (NATO designation SS-18 “Satan”), as well as a squadron of 40 TU-95 heavy bombers armed with Kh-55 air-land cruise missiles (or ALCMs) (NATO designation AS-15A ‘Kent’) with 370 tactical nuclear warheads.
18. May 23, 1992: Kazakhstan signs Lisbon Protocol to the Treaty between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (START I Treaty), by which it renounces possession of nuclear weapons and accepts obligations to ensure nonproliferation of nuclear weapons. December 13, 1993: Kazakhstan’s Parliament ratifies the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. On the same day, in Almaty, President NursultanNazarbayev and U.S. Vice President Albert Gore sign the Framework Agreement opening the way toward implementation of the Cooperative Threat Reduction Program (Nunn-Lugar program) in Kazakhstan.
19. Denuclearization as a foreignpolicymaneuver In February 1994 President NursultanNazarbayev presents ratification documents to President Bill Clinton in Washington, DC, by which Kazakhstan formally accedes to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty as a nonnuclear-weapon state. Presidents Clinton and Nazarbayev signed the Charter of Democratic Partnership between Kazakhstan and the United States. The Charter proclaimed Kazakhstan’s “security, independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity and democratic development” to be matters “of highest importance” for the United States.
20. December, 1994: The United States of America, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the Russian Federation, the states depositories of the NPT Treaty, sign the Memorandum on Security Assurances with Kazakhstan, Belarus and Ukraine, as countries who have renounced nuclear weapons. In short order, France and China, two other nuclear weapons states, provide similar guarantees to Kazakhstan. BUT! Washington’s refusal to provide direct security guarantees for Central Asian states became a lasting feature of the US policies in the region in the 1990s.
21. TheUnites States has assisted Kazakhstan in removalof nuclear warheads and weapons-grade material, as well as providing support for its infrastructure. In 1994, Kazakhstantransferred more than 500 kg of HEU to the United States. In 1995, Kazakhstan removed its last nuclear warhead and,with US assistance, completed the sealing of 181 nuclear test tunnels in May 2000. Under the Cooperative ThreatReduction Program, the US has spent $240 mln to assist Kazakhstan in eliminating weapons of mass destruction andrelatedinfrastructure.
22. Turkish Model
23. Second test: TajikCivilWar 1992-1997 TajikCivilWar: 50.000 Russianoperationandbacking of İmamaliRahmonov US Position Establishment of Russianmilitary presence
24. Mid-1990’s: Energypipedreams “200 billionbarrels of oil” April 1995: Special Advisor to the President and Secretary of State on Assistance to the New Independent States of the Former Soviet Union. 1997: Strobe Tallbot, “Farewell to Flashman”: “the US doesn’t accept spheres of influence in Central Eurasia” July 1998: Special Advisor to the President and the Secretary of State for Caspian Basin Energy Diplomacy 1999: “This is not just another oil and gas deal, and this is not just another pipeline," said Energy Secretary Bill Richardson. "It is a strategic framework that advances America's national security interests. It is a strategic vision for the future of the Caspian region."
25. Regionalanchor: Uzbekistan April 1995: US DefenseSecretaryPerry’sTashkentvisit “Island of stability” Beginning of militarycooperation October 1995: Memorandum of Understandingbetweendefenseminsitriesandestablishment of workinggroup June 1996: Uzbekpresident’sfirstvisitto Washington (callsformilitaryoperation) PfP: since 1995, Kazakhstan, KyrgyzstanandUzbekistan
26. Alarm in CentralAsia 1996: Fall of Kabul 1998: Fall of Mazar-i Sharif IMU: FromTavildaratoNorthernAfghanistan
27. 1999-2000: IMU terroristacts February 16, 1999: TashkentBombings, 16 killed, 120 injured July-August 1999, August 2000: Batken incursions, hostagecrises The US classifies IMU as a foreignterroristorganisation
28. 1991: RadicalSalafigroupAdolat JumaNamangani AND Afghanistan Adolatassumedcivilauthority in Namangan Callsforimposing of Sharialaw in allUzbekistan Karimovandcentralisation 1992-1997: Tavildara, establishment of tieswithOsama bin Laden 2000: basing in Afghanistan
29. 1999: Uzbekistanleaves CST, joines GUAM End of 1999: Uzbekistanparticipates in CST trainings 2000: Uzbekistanexpresses a desiretojointheShanghaiFive 2001: Establishment of SCO
30. August 20, 1998: Americantomohawkcruisemissileattack on Afghanistan October 1999: CentralAsiawasincludedintoCentcomarea of responsibility Spring 2000: CIA and FBI directorsvisitKazakhstanandUzbekistan CentralAsianBorderSecurityInitiative Plansfor a militaryoperationagainst Taliban and Al Qaida Uzbekistanagreestoprovidebases No action
31. Minimum of American FP Support of market economy: diplomaticsupport, aidandassistance (USAID, advisers) KazakhstanandKyrgyzstan: “pro-reform countries” DemocracyPromotion (USAID, NationalEndowmentforDemocracy, NDI, IRI, otherNGO’s)
32. DemocracyPromotion In 1999, congressional concerns led to passage ofthe “Silk Road Strategy Act” (P.L. 106-113), which authorized enhanced policy and aid to supportconflict amelioration, humanitarian needs, economic development, transport andcommunications, border controls, democracy, and the creation of civil societies in the SouthCaucasusandCentralAsia. FrustrationwithCentralAsians Pushfordemocracyassistance After 9/11: increase of fundsfordemocracypromotiontoCentralAsia
33. TulipRevolution in Kyrgyzstan Internalfactors: poverty, corruption, nepotism, soft-authoritarianrule Exteranalfactors: struggleforpower in theregion The US Embassyprovided a printingpressforopposition, USAID proividedpoliticaltrainingfor ALL politicalparties, supportedindependentlocalmedia Afterrevolution: diplomaticsupport