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Research supported by:. Philip Watson University of Idaho Nick Beleiciks Oregon Employment Department. NOAA Fisheries / Northwest Fisheries Science Center. Small Community SAMs & Determining Natural Resource Dependency: …a tale of two port Cities.

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philip watson university of idaho nick beleiciks oregon employment department

Research supported by:

Philip Watson

University of Idaho

Nick Beleiciks

Oregon Employment Department

NOAA Fisheries / Northwest

Fisheries Science Center

Small Community SAMs & Determining Natural Resource Dependency:…a tale of two port Cities

Pacific Northwest Regional Economics Conference

May 14, 2008

slide2

Who Cares???

  • Community Officials
    • Role of specific sectors in local economy
    • Sources of tax revenue
  • NOAA Fisheries
    • Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation
    • Management Act’s National Standard 8
  • Others
    • United States Forest Service
    • Bureau of Land Management

Resource Dependency & Impacts

slide3

Regional Input-Output Models

    • Communities may be more resource dependent
    • Larger cities dominate the regional economy
    • Regions can mask impacts on smaller communities
  • Small Communities More Open (generally)
    • Commuters
    • Local industry sales to nonresidents
  • West Coast Small Communities
    • 125 fishery dependent or engaged
    • Other marine resources (recreation, ecosystem)

Small Communities are Unique

slide4

Base Industries

    • Fishing – seafood processing
    • Shipbuilding
    • Tourism

Connect every job, dollar of wages, and gross regional product in community to the export industry that supports it.

  • Avoid “double counting”

Economic Base Theory

slide5

Non-survey Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)

Accurately reflect small communities

Applicable to any community

Use documentable data sources

Objective: Create SAMS for CGE Models

slide6

Newport, Oregon

  • 2007 Population Estimate 10,455
  • Located in Lincoln County (pop. 44,630)
    • County seat
    • Largest city in Lincoln County
  • ZIP Code 97365
  • Known for tourism and beer
  • 2006 Total Landings
    • $33 million
    • Ranked 1nd on West Coast

Communities in the Study

slide7

Newport, Oregon

(Ugly map, great foreshadowing)

slide8

Westport, Washington

  • 2005 Population Estimate 2,335
  • Located in Grays Harbor (pop. 70,800)
    • Largest city in county is Aberdeen 16,450
  • ZIP Code 98595
  • Known for tourism and ship building
  • 2006 Total Landings
    • $27.7 million
    • Ranked 3rd on West Coast

Communities in the Study

slide9

Westport, WA

(again with the foreshadowing)

fish landings
Fish Landings

Over $435 Million in

Total Commercial Landings

slide11

SAM pedigree

  • Gathering the data
    • Community Contacts
    • IMPLAN
    • Federal data sources

Building the Model

slide12

Schwarm & Cutler (2003) Building Small City and Town SAMS and CGE Models

    • Base design for ‘self-balancing’ SAM
  • Waters, Weber, & Holland (1999) The Role of Agriculture in Oregon’s Economic Base: Findings from a Social Accounting Matrix
    • Employment dependency on export base
  • Computable general equilibrium

SAM Pedigree

community contacts
COMMUNITY CONTACTS

Annual Detailed Budget

Finance Department

Community Economic Development

County Assessor’s Office

Property tax data request

GIS-based property tax data online

community contacts14
COMMUNITY CONTACTS

Advantages of using community information

Unique production function for government

Separate production functions for each department

Protective Services

Parks, Recreation, and Libraries

Infrastructure

Other (mostly administration)

City Investments

City gov’t revenues unique for the community

Accurate account of land and buildings

slide15

ZIP Code level database

    • Gross Absorption Report (C x A)
    • Regional Make Report (A x C)
    • Household Commodity Demand
    • Regional Purchase Coefficients (RPC)

IMPLAN Data

slide16

Bureau of Labor Statistics

    • Consumer Expenditure Survey
  • Bureau of Economic Analysis
    • Capital Flows in the U.S. Economy, 1997
  • Census Bureau
    • Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD)
      • OnTheMap
      • Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) Online
    • Nonemployer statistics
    • 2000 Census
      • Population
      • Housing stock by income level

Federal Data Sources

u s census bureau
U.S. Census Bureau

OnTheMap is the primary source of jobs by industry in the Small Community SAMs

OnTheMap

Part of Local Employment Dynamics (LED)

Census – states partnership

Released in Feb. 2006

Most recent data is 2004

http://lehdmap2.did.census.gov/themap/

u s census bureau19
U.S. Census Bureau

OnTheMap provides

Community level jobs by industry

Commuters into area

Commuter out of area

How OnTheMap works

States supply QCEW/ES-202 data to Census

Census matches SSNs with federal data on individuals

Information about workers place of residents, age, earnings

u s census bureau20
U.S. Census Bureau

Industry breakout employment based on ZIP Code business patterns or other information

Nonemployer statistics

Used to impute proprietor jobs into the model

Available at the county level

County nonemployers allocated proportionately to community based on OnTheMap proportions

u s census bureau21
U.S. Census Bureau

Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) is the source of employment income in the Small Community SAMs

QWI earnings are for the county level

Community earnings assumed same as county

Assumed proprietors and employees earn the same

QWI earnings available at 4-digit NAICS

small community sam23
Small Community SAM

SAM has 22 industries

2-digit NAICS with industry breakouts for fishing, seafood manufacturing, and ship manufacturing

Endogenous Accounts form a 43x43 matrix

export dependency
Export Dependency
  • Based on Waters, Weber, and Holland

Z = (I – S)-1TY

  • (I – S)-1 is matrix of SAM Leontief inverse coefs.
  • TY diagonalized vector of exogenous demand
  • Z is matrix of total impacts
  • Z multiplied by employment to output ratio
  • Generates employment dependency indices
thank you
Thank You!

Thank you to NOAA Fisheries and the Northwest Fisheries Science Center for their support of this research

Philip Watson

University of Idaho

pwatson@uidaho.com

Nick Beleiciks

Oregon Employment Department

Nick.J.Beleiciks@state.or.us