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WHY THE DROP IN CRIME?

WHY THE DROP IN CRIME?. Executive Issues Seminar Series 1997 Law Enforcement Management Institute of Texas Sam Houston State University. CRIME TRENDS. Dr. Larry Hoover Police Research Center Sam Houston State University. POSSIBLE EXPLANATIONS. Social-demographic Trends

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WHY THE DROP IN CRIME?

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  1. WHY THE DROP IN CRIME? Executive Issues Seminar Series 1997 Law Enforcement Management Institute of Texas Sam Houston State University

  2. CRIME TRENDS Dr. Larry Hoover Police Research Center Sam Houston State University

  3. POSSIBLE EXPLANATIONS • Social-demographic Trends • Economic Conditions • Drug Use Prevalence • Incarceration Rates • Police Programs.

  4. UNIFORM CRIME REPORTS Offenses Known to the Police Part I and Part II Catagories Hierarchy Rule Counts Both Personal & Business Part I Offenses : Murder, Rape, Robbery, Agg Assault, Burglary, Motor Vehicle Theft, Larceny, (Arson). NATIONAL CRIME VICTIMIZATION SURVEY Census Bureau Telephone Survey Rotating Sample of 56,000 Households Victimization of persons and household for: Rape, Robbery, Assault, Personal Theft, Household Theft, Burglary, Motor Vehicle Theft. TWO CONTRASTING MEASURES

  5. LIMITATIONS OF THE UCR • Offense Classification is Subject to Bias & Inconsistency • Varies with Citizen Propensity to Report • Varies with Police Propensity to Record • Part I Catagory Skewed by Larceny.

  6. CRIME INDEX OFFENSES 1997 Percent Distribution Source: 1997 UCR

  7. LIMITATION OF THE NCVS • Does Not Count Business Crime • Subject to Recall Inconsistency, Including Telescoping • Significant Variation When Queries Are Rephrased, Redesign in 1994 Complicates Prior Comparisons • Measures Only Victimizations of Those Over 12 Yrs., National Sample Only.

  8. GENERAL OBSERVATIONS REGARDING UCR TRENDS • Overall Rate Nearly Tripled from 1960 to 1975, relatively stable from 1975 until 1985, then increased by 13% 1985-91 • Murder Rate Dropped 20% from 1980 to 1995, Now the Same as the 1970’s • Serious Violent Crime Rate Peaked in 1991, Has Dropped 10% Since Then, But Is Still 40% Higher Than In 1975 • Crimes Reported to the Police Have Dropped in 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995.

  9. GENERAL OBSERVATIONS REGARDING NCVS TRENDS • Shows Gradual Decrease in Property Crime Except Auto Theft from 1984 to 1992 • Slight Increase in Violent Crime During Same Period • Redesigned in 1993 • A 4.5% Decrease in Property Crime from 1993 to 1994, a Slight Decrease in Violent Crime • A 9% Decrease in Property Crime from 1994 to 1995, a 12% Decrease in Violent Crime.

  10. UCR TOTAL INDEX RATE

  11. NATIONAL VIOLENT UCR INDEX

  12. NATIONAL PROPERTY UCR INDEX

  13. DISCREPENCIES BETWEEN UCR AND NCVS • Most Obvious Explanation for Dramatic Increases in UCR During Late 1980’s Compared to NCVS Is Police Recording • Possible That Reporting Increased, Particularly in Sexual Assault, But Does Not Likely Account for All Differences • Possible But Very Unlikely That Differences in Crime Targets (Businesses) Account for Some Difference.

  14. STATEWIDE UCR RATE

  15. Amarillo -7.8% Lubbock -1.4% Brownsville -6.3% McAllen -13.3% Dallas +0.2% Fort Worth -10.1% Garland -8.9% Grand Prairie +8.2% Killeen +2.4% San Angelo -6.3% Longview -9.0% Tyler +4.1% Change From 1996 to 1997Selected Texas Cities

  16. TEXAS MSA CRIME RATE TRENDS

  17. UCR DECLINE 1990-97 44 42 40 38 36 % DECREASE 34 32 30 28 26 AUSTIN DALLAS EL PASO HOUSTON FT WORTH SAN ANTONIO STATEWIDE MSA

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