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The Worst Crime Against All Humanity

Changing Earth’s Climate. The Worst Crime Against All Humanity. The climate crime is much worse than ecological debt. It is the worst injustice ever and it is NOW. It is the crime of all time. Part One What is the evidence? Part Two How long have governments known?. E V I D

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The Worst Crime Against All Humanity

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  1. Changing Earth’s Climate The Worst Crime Against All Humanity

  2. The climate crime is much worse than ecological debt. It is the worst injustice ever and it is NOW.

  3. It is the crime of all time.

  4. Part One What is the evidence? Part Two How long have governments known?

  5. E V I D E N C E The Right to Survive P A R T O N E has already been denied!

  6. The Crime of All Time Today’s committed global warming and climate change is the worst ever crime against humanity — and against all Humanity.

  7. The Crime of All Time Committed global warming? Emitting global warming greenhouse gases is like shooting burning arrows at the future.

  8. Evidence for the Crime of All Time What is “committed” temperature increase? Due to the inertia of the planetary climate system, it takes about 30 years for emissions to register as a surface temperature increase. Today’s global temperature increase is committed to double - even without any more emissions. Global average temperature Doubled temperature increase 30 year heat lag Global CO2 emissions rapidly cut to virtual zero 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2200 Year Adapted from IPCC

  9. Evidence for the Crime of All Time The temperature increase we must look at to assess impacts is at least 1.6ºC and that is a terrible crime. 1.6ºC Today’s absolute commitment 0.8ºC Today’stemperature increase

  10. Evidence for the Crime of All Time Staying on today’s business as usual scenario, and with no new UN treaty, where are we headed? 1.5ºC by 2030 2.0ºC by 2050 IPCC 2007 global average temperature increase from pre-industrial Global emissions are tracking the IPCC’s worst case scenario (A1F1).

  11. Evidence for the Crime of All Time The Crime of the Industrialized Nations UNFCCC Website There is overwhelming scientific evidence, as shown in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), that climate change will threaten the very survival of the most vulnerable populations.

  12. Evidence for the Crime of All Time From the UN FCCC Secretariat website A question of degree Even the minimum predicted shifts in climate for the 21st century are likely to be significant and disruptive. Predictions of future climate impacts show that the consequences could vary from disruptive to catastrophic.

  13. Evidence for the Crime of All Time A world under stress A future of more severe storms and floods along the world's increasingly crowded coastlines is likely, and will be a bad combination even under the minimum scenarios forecast. Environmental damage – such as overgrazed rangeland, deforested mountainsides, and denuded agricultural soils – means that nature will be more vulnerable than previously to changes in climate. Yet those to suffer most from climate change will be in the developing world. They have fewer resources for coping with storms, with floods, with droughts, with disease outbreaks, and with disruptions to food and water supplies. — UNFCCC Secretariat

  14. Evidence for the Crime of All Time Food security ... a general reduction is expected in potential crop yields in most tropical and sub-tropical regions. Mid-continental areas – such as the United States' "grain belt" and vast areas of Asia – are likely to dry. Where dry-land agriculture relies solely on rain, as in sub-Saharan Africa, yields would decrease dramatically in regions, even with minimal increases in temperature. Such changes could cause disruptions in food supply in a world that is already afflicted with food shortages and famines. Salt-water intrusion from rising sea levels will reduce the quality and quantity of freshwater supplies. This is a major concern, since billions of people already lack access to freshwater. Higher ocean levels already are contaminating underground water sources.... — UNFCCC Secretariat

  15. The Crime of All Time Policy Implications of Finding that Climate Change is a Crime Against Humanity and Against All Humanity Force industrialized nations to act Demand Accountability It’s his planet and his climate.

  16. The Crime of All Time The Best Hope to Get Industrialized Nations to Stop Catastrophic Greenhouse Pollution Climate-vulnerable developing nations could use international law to break the current deadlock in the intergovernmental negotiations on climate change by taking industrialised nations to court. – Foundation for International Environmental Law and Development, 4 October 2010

  17. The Crime of All Time We demand the creation of an International Tribunal of Climate and Environmental Justice that has the legally binding capacity to prevent, judge, and punish those states, companies, and individuals that pollute and cause climate change by their actions or omissions. — 2010 Cochabamba People’s Climate Agreement International Climate Justice Tribunal

  18. Evidence for the Crime of All Time Estimated deaths due to climate change, in 2000 IPCC 2007 The trend of the climate change killing is already established by people already dying Committed global warming today is double 2000 global warming. 2C is three times 2000 global warming.

  19. Evidence for the Crime of All Time All the deaths, deprivation and suffering of the developing world are being MULTIPLIED The Earth’s climate supports our water and food supplies. The huge number of people – especially children – suffering and dying from malnutrition, starvation, disease, lack of water, and “natural” disasters is right now being multiplied. Climate change multiplies all of these impacts. Changing the climate multiplies all of the human rights abuses and deprivations of the economically oppressed and vulnerable.

  20. The Crime Of All Time Children (in all regions) are most vulnerable to all impacts of global climate change.

  21. Climate change’s multiplication effect

  22. The Crime of All Time Changing the Planet’s Climate Decreases water security Decreases food security Decreases health security Decreases civil security And diminishes the future of humanity The Crime of All Time

  23. The Crime of the Industrialized Nations This presentations relies solely on government reports like the IPCC assessments as documented proof of the worst ever Crime Against Humanity

  24. The Crime of the Industrialized Nations Today’s Great Offense Against Humanity (World Bank 2008) Child mortality GDP This situation is long-standing common knowledge. Greenhouse gas emissions

  25. The Crime of the Industrialized Nations Industrialized Nations: refuse to acknowledge that we are “beyond dangerous climate interference” (1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change), or that a state of planetary emergency exists aim for a catastrophic global average temperature increase target of 2.0ºC have known for at least a decade the science of catastrophic global climate change and that a 2.0ºC temperature increase (indeed less) is catastrophic for the Global South have ignored the impacts on water, food, and health security in the vulnerable Global South ignore the greatest disastrous and catastrophic dangers from global climate change for the survival of human populations and all future generations assume that over the short term, they will gain from global warming of up to 2.0ºC while the Global South will suffer disastrous losses have done nothing to mitigate the massive inevitable losses of the most climate change vulnerable populations, numbering over a billion

  26. The Crime of the Industrialized Nations The 2ºC “target” is a thoroughly documented crime against humanity. In 2009, against the submissions of the most climate change vulnerable nations, the industrialized nations stuck to their longstanding 2.0ºC temperature increase policy target, by means of the Copenhagen Accord.

  27. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity

  28. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity From the EU Climate Change Site 2010 The EU 2⁰C climate policy adopted in 1996… a level that scientists say will avoid the worst consequences …. But even below this level climate change will have significant impacts. Many poor developing countries are among the most vulnerable to climate change but also have the least resources to cope with it.

  29. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity 1990 UN Position for Climate Safety is 1.0ºC 1990 WMO/ICSU/UNEP Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases (AGGG) analysis of "targets and indicators" for climate change `(IPCC precursor) Maximum 1.0ºC increase above pre-industrial levels Increases beyond this may elicit rapid, unpredictable and non-linear responses that could lead to extensive ecosystem damage. 2.0ºC too dangerous … increase above pre-industrial entails unacceptably high ecosystem and societal risk. … we must expect that in many places in the world there will be a crisis in the world food supply and ecosystems and the corresponding disruption of socio-economic systems and a loss of several islands. Vellinga, P. and R. Swart (1990), "The Greenhouse Marathon: Proposal for a Global Strategy", pp. 129-134 in J. Jager and H.L.Ferguson (Eds) (1990), Climate Change: Science, Impacts and Policy, Proceedings of the Second World Climate Conference, World Meteorological Organisation. Cambridge University Press.

  30. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity European Union and the 2ºC Target The EU has acknowledged that its 1996 2.0ºC policy target is not safe and is catastrophic to the most climate change vulnerable populations. 2004 EU … recognizes that 2°C would already imply significant impacts on ecosystems and water resources.... — 2610th Council Meeting, Luxembourg, 14 October 2004 2008 EU The 2.0ºC limit cannot be considered as safe, as severe impacts are likely to occur increasingly as the global mean temperature rise approaches 2.0ºC above pre-industrial levels. Changes in extremes such as heat waves, droughts, and extreme precipitation events will largely shape future climate change impacts. In particular significant impacts are expected on species, ecosystems, water resources, low latitude agriculture and small island states.

  31. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Food Security Not Protected by the 2ºC Limit Food security is not acknowledged as a climate change danger in climate change policy making. For example, it is not listed under the IPCC Climate Science “Reasons for Concern” that determine policy. But it is one of the dangers interfering with the climate system specified in the 1992 UNFCCC !

  32. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity The IPCC has never stated that 2⁰C is safe - or dangerous.

  33. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Climate change is already increasing extreme weather impacts at today’s +0.8ºC! Commitment is 1.6ºC. Policy is 2ºC. Extreme weather (heat waves, droughts, floods) is the most damaging impact to both agriculture and human health. It is now more likely than not that human activity has contributed to observed increases in heat waves, intense precipitation events, and the intensity of tropical cyclones. — IPCC Reasons For Concern, 2007 2ºC 1.5ºC Risk of Extreme Weather Events

  34. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Heat Waves and Droughts are Already Increasing ! • More intense and longer droughts have been observed over wider areas since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics. • Increased drying linked with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation has contributed to changes in drought. • The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas, consistent with warming and observed increases of atmospheric water vapour. • • Widespread changes in extreme temperatures have been observed over the last 50 years. .. heat waves have become more frequent. Commitment is 1.6ºC. Policy is 2ºC. — IPCC 2007

  35. The 2007 IPCC Assessment

  36. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Food Security in the Tropics at +1.0ºC Rice Corn IPCC 2007

  37. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Global average temperature increase from pre-industrial Today’s committed global average temperature increase according to climate science. Committed global average temperature increase by policy target of industrialized nations. Committed temperature increase from combined pledges (CarbonTracker). Adapted from IPCC 2007

  38. IPCC Chart of Impacts (impacts start where the text starts)

  39. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Water Security Decreasing water availability and increasing drought in the mid-latitudes and semi arid lower latitudes. Hundreds of millions of people exposed to increased water stress. 2

  40. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity FOOD SECURITY Increased coral bleaching. Most corals bleached. Complex localized negative impacts on Smallholders, subsistence farmers and fishers. This is almost all the food production in the most vulnerable regions! Tendency for cereal productivity to decrease in low latitudes. Tendency for some cereal productivity to increase at mid-and high latitudes.

  41. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity CLIMATE DEATHS CLIMATE REFUGEES Increased damage from floods and storms. Millions more people experience coastal flooding each year.

  42. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Health Increasing burden from • malnutrition • diarrheal disease • cardio-respiratory problems • infectious diseases Increased morbidity and mortality from • heat waves • floods • droughts

  43. Today Increased morbidity and mortality from: • malnutrition • diarrheal disease • cardio-respiratory • infectious diseases Combined cumulative toll of human suffering and death • heat waves • floods • droughts • floods • storms Less water availability Increasing drought in the mid-latitudes and semi arid lower latitudes Millions more people experience coastal flooding each year Less cereal productivity in low latitudes Less food from smallholders, subsistence farmers and fishers

  44. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Populations Affected by Losses of Food and Water Global temperature change from pre-industrial Today 250 Million 1.2 Billion 80 Million IPCC 2007 20% GDP

  45. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity 600 Million 1 Billion 180 Million

  46. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity According to the IPCC’s highly conservative figures, at a 2ºC global average temperature increase, an additional 1.5 billion people will be deprived of food and water – almost all of them in the developing nations.

  47. Terrible though they are, for many reasons these IPCC estimates of regional climate change mortalities are not underestimates. They do not account for the additive effect of the main causes of increased mortality from increasing malnutrition and infections. The climate crop models on which estimates of death from malnutrition are based do not include about half of the adverse effects of global climate change on agriculture. The very large impact of extreme weather events on both agriculture and human health is not yet captured in the computer models.

  48. IPCC 2007 on Food Security

  49. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity World Food Decline at +3.0⁰C, +1.5ºC for Developing Regions Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid to high latitudes for local mean temperature increases of up to 1.5-3.5⁰C depending on the crop. At lower latitudes and especially dry and tropical regions crop productivity is projected to decrease for even small local temperature increases 1.5-2.5°C. Globally the potential for food production is projected to increase with increases in local average temperature over a range of 1.5-3.5°C but above this it is projected to decrease. [This means a reduction of global food output above the global average temperature increase of 3°C or less.] — IPCC (2007), Food, fibre and forest products, Policymakers Summary

  50. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Great Increase in the World Drought Severity Index from 1900 to 2005 Palmer Drought Severity Index IPCC 2007

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