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Can East Asia confront the new normal? Achieving the MDGs in a changed global setting . Vikram Nehru World Bank Sydney, June 17, 2010. East Asia…. ….and the Pacific Islands. Growth. Incomes have grown fastest in East Asia and the Pacific (GNI per capita, 1967-2008; 1967=100).

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Can east asia confront the new normal achieving the mdgs in a changed global setting

Can East Asia confront the new normal?Achieving the MDGs in a changed global setting

Vikram Nehru

World Bank

Sydney, June 17, 2010





Can east asia confront the new normal achieving the mdgs in a changed global setting

Incomes have grown fastest in East Asia and the Pacific

(GNI per capita, 1967-2008; 1967=100)



Higher gdp per capita growth is associated with better mdg performance on under 5 child mortality
Higher GDP per capita growth is associated with better MDG performance on Under -5 Child Mortality

Sources: World Bank WDI


Can east asia confront the new normal achieving the mdgs in a changed global setting
East Asia is ahead of most other developing regions in achieving the MDGs, although improvement in child mortality lags …

Source: World Bank, (2010), Global Economic Prospects.

Note: Greater than 100 percent means that the goal will be surpassed.



Can east asia confront the new normal achieving the mdgs in a changed global setting

serious Pacific) made the least progress

Three concerns…………….

^


Can east asia confront the new normal achieving the mdgs in a changed global setting

First the global…………. Pacific) made the least progress

….and now the European financial crisis!


Can east asia confront the new normal achieving the mdgs in a changed global setting

Rising inequalities…………… Pacific) made the least progress


Can east asia confront the new normal achieving the mdgs in a changed global setting

Rapid urbanization Pacific) made the least progress

Environmental damage

Vulnerability to natural disasters

and climate change…..


Can east asia confront the new normal achieving the mdgs in a changed global setting

Implications of the global crisis…………….. Pacific) made the least progress


The global financial crisis has made achieving the mdgs more challenging
The global financial crisis has made achieving the MDGs more challenging

Source: Global Monitoring Report, World Bank, 2010


Can east asia confront the new normal achieving the mdgs in a changed global setting

Worldwide, the crisis will leave an additional 64 million people in extreme poverty by the end of 2010…………….

…….of which 14 million will be in East Asia and the Pacific.

World Bank Global Monitoring Report, 2010


Can east asia confront the new normal achieving the mdgs in a changed global setting

Implications for policy? people in extreme poverty by the end of 2010…………….

More – not less – integration!


Can east asia confront the new normal achieving the mdgs in a changed global setting

Rising inequality…………….. people in extreme poverty by the end of 2010…………….


Inequality is not between but within rural and urban areas
Inequality is not between but people in extreme poverty by the end of 2010……………. within rural and urban areas

Sources: EAP Poverty Program database.


China western regions lag infant mortality
China: Western regions lag infant mortality people in extreme poverty by the end of 2010…………….


Indonesia intra urban and intra rural inequality
Indonesia: Intra-urban and intra-rural inequality people in extreme poverty by the end of 2010…………….

Sources: EAP Poverty Program database.


Indonesia regional disparities in maternal care
Indonesia: Regional disparities in maternal care people in extreme poverty by the end of 2010…………….

Percent of births attended by healthcare workers, 2009


Can east asia confront the new normal achieving the mdgs in a changed global setting

Implications for policy? people in extreme poverty by the end of 2010…………….

Encourage spatially blind institutions.

Unbalanced growth -- inclusive development!


Can east asia confront the new normal achieving the mdgs in a changed global setting

The world is not flat! people in extreme poverty by the end of 2010…………….



Can east asia confront the new normal achieving the mdgs in a changed global setting

450 million additional urbanites in East Asia in the next two decades ……………..

…………….. that’s one new Paris a month!


Can east asia confront the new normal achieving the mdgs in a changed global setting

Tackling the urbanization ills of two decades ……………..

time, grime, and crime

Land markets

Connectivity

City services



Can east asia confront the new normal achieving the mdgs in a changed global setting

Typhoon two decades ……………..Ondo

(Philippines)

Cyclone Nargis

(Myanmar)



Can east asia confront the new normal achieving the mdgs in a changed global setting

Mitigation two decades ……………..

Adaptation

Green growth


Can east asia confront the new normal achieving the mdgs in a changed global setting

To summarize two decades ……………..

  • Rapid green growth possible for East Asia.

  • Spatially blind policies for convergence.

  • Climate change a particular threat.