Evaluation of GCM-based climatic projections for Russian permafrost regions:

1. Evaluation of GCM-based climatic projections for Russian permafrost regions: Contrastingmodel results with observations in the 20th – early 21st century.

2. Uncertainty in projection – uncertainty inimpacts

3. 21 models Experiment setup Period: 1961-1999 parameters: • Air temperature trend • Thawing degrees days • Annual temperature amplitude http://www.pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/model_documentation/ipcc_model_documentation.php

4. Contrasting two models… giss_aom annual air temperature trend, °C/10 years BCCR

5. Cumulative rank based on comparison of temperature characteristics

6. Deviation of computed air temperature trend from observations, °C/10 years Ensemble of all models Ensemble of 3 best models

7. Cumulative rank based on comparison of temperature characteristics

8. Cumulative rank based on comparison of precipitation

9. Conclusions • We can not predict the future climate without uncertainty, however we can check the models for consistency with observations. • Ensemble scenarios are better than those based on single model; Ensemble based on best models are better than all models ensemble. • Models reproduce climate in Russian permafrost regions with large uncertainty compared to many other regions of the Globe. • These uncertainties complicate evaluation of climate impacts in northern lands