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Soil and Permafrost studies

Soil and Permafrost studies. Laxmi Sushama Ouranos Centre ESCER. Objective:. To model current and future soil thermal regimes for the Arctic permafrost regions using CRCM + CLASS. Motivation:.

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Soil and Permafrost studies

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  1. Soil and Permafrost studies Laxmi Sushama Ouranos Centre ESCER

  2. Objective: To model current and future soil thermal regimes for the Arctic permafrost regions using CRCM + CLASS. Motivation: Observed recent soil temperature changes at high-latitudes suggest a deepening of the active layer. This increase in the active layer thickness (ALT) and associated permafrost degradation can have adverse effects on the socio-economic and eco-environmental systems. Climate models used to study anticipated climate changes suggest a likely rise in the average global temperatures over the next century, with maximal changes being projected for cold high-latitude permafrost regions. These changes in air temperature can lead to changes in the soil thermal regime and permafrost regions can be profoundly affected. Given these projections, an evaluation of changes in the soil thermal regime becomes desirable for a number of reasons including assessments of possible ecosystem responses and impacts on infrastructures. Methodology: • Offline simulation of the soil model (CLASS), driven by observed/analysed data. • The offline simulations are intended to validate the soil model/configuration. • Coupled CRCM/CLASS simulations. • Offline simulations have the limitation that they cannot capture the thermal and hydrologic feedbacks to the climate system [Lawrence and Slater, 2005]. Interactions between the atmosphere and the underlying surface are important, and determine the quality of many simulated near-surface variables.

  3. (a) 0 – 9 m 0 – 6 m (b) 12% 35% Results from offline simulations with the Goodrich soil model, driven by CRCM surface temperature and snow cover* Simulated average ALT (m) for the continuous and discontinuous permafrost zones and their distributions for (a) current 1961-1990 and future 2041-2070 periods.

  4. (a) (b) (c) Results from a coupled CRCM/CLASS simulation. The version of CLASS used in this simulation is only 4.1 m deep. (b) The CRCM/CLASS simulated average annual temperature (in °C) for the 1961–1990 period and (c) the CRCM/CLASS projected changes (in °C) in the mean annual temperature for the 2041–2070 period, for the top 10 cm of soil, for the North-American permafrost regions taken from the IPA map [Brown et al., 2001] shown in (a).

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