“A Waning Warming: What’s Up With That?” Co-Facilitator http://socan.info Alan Journetalanjournet@gmail.com / 541-301-4107 For ppt: http://socan.info Projects Presentation Project Scroll down to ‘SOCAN Presentations Delivered’
Two Parts: i) What is happening to atmospheric temperature? ii) The Rest of the Story
Global Temperatures 1880 – 2012cf 1951-1980 Since 1970s - 1.3⁰F Since 1880s - app. 2.0⁰F Since 1750s - >2.0⁰F 1998 1.8 2013 so far 7thhottest on record – WMU 2010 2012 1.44 2009 2011 2008 1.08 .72 ⁰F .36 0 .36 .72 1.08 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A.gif
NASA GISS Data Is it legitimate, when we have a largedate set, to trawl in sub-sets of thosedata for patterns we want to see? 2000 2010 1990 1980 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A.gif
In Regression…the Key Questions • How close are the data to the line? • If data are close to line we are confident that the line represents the data accurately, and and • Is the slope of the line (significantly) different from 0 - meaning a slope (relationship) exists? • Only if the slope is significantly different from 0 (at least 95% certainty), in science, can we conclude there is a pattern.
Regression Analysis Reveals TrendNASA GISS Global Temperature Data Meteorological Stations 1880 - 2012
Regression Analysis Reveals TrendNASA GISS Global Temperature Data Meteorological Stations 1880 - 2012 97% of practicing climate scientists have independently reviewed datasuch as these and concluded: If a coin toss comes up heads 500/1000 we’d be happy, but 999 times out of 1000 we’d be suspicious • That the planet is warming is unequivocal • There is a greater than 90% probability that human emissionsof greenhouse gases are contributing
EXAMPLES • Phil Brennan, Sept 2009, Newsmax • The planet has been cooling since “around 1998” or “since around the year 2000.” • http://www.newsmax.com/brennan/obama-global-warming/2009/09/23/id/335170 • Stephen (Lord) Monckton of Benchley • American Physical Society: Forum on Physics and Society; July 2008 • Showed following cooling pattern from 2002 – 2008: • http://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/200807/monckton.cfm
The 1998 – 2012 AnalysisNASA GISS Global Temperature Data Meteorological Stations 1998 - 2012
The 1998 – 2012 AnalysisNASA GISS Global Temperature Data Meteorological Stations 1998 - 2012 1 – Still positive though lower slope and probability 2 – Based on cherry-picked data starting 1998 With a 70% chance of rain, would you take an umbrella?
The 1998 – 2012 AnalysisNASA GISS Temperature Data Meteorological Stations 1998 adjusted - 2012 1998 adjusted to mean of two previous and 2 succeeding years No more legitimate than cherry-picking data-
The 1998 – 2012 AnalysisNASA GISS Temperature Data Meteorological Stations 1998 adjusted - 2012 Now slope is back, and P > 90% Indicates the impact of outliers on data analysisand conclusions. With a 90% chance of rain, would you take an umbrella?
However….recently Pattern Adjusted for Natural Factors:ENSO, Solar Cycles, Volcanoes Absent Cooling Factors - - - Would Have Been A Consistent Rise G. Foster, and S. Rahmsdorf, "Global temperature evolution 1979–2010", Environmental Research Letters, vol. 6, 2011. http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/12/08/1043534/-eSci:-Global-Cooling-Assured-for-the-Next-3-Decades
IPCC 2013: “…the rate of warming over the past 15 years (1998–2012) was 0.05 [–0.05 to +0.15] °C per decade, which begins with a strong El Niño, However, the rate 1951 – 2012 was 0.12[0.08 to 0.14] °C per decade.” Adjustment Allowing for Incomplete coverage by weather stationsespecially lacking in Arcticwhere greatest recent warming has occurred Appeared too late for inclusion in IPCC review Corrected value Increases 1998 – 2012back to 012°C – same as1951 – 2012 Combine this with the previous study and maybe atmospheric influences have actually increased Cowtan and Way Accepted November 2013Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society http://www-users.york.ac.uk/~kdc3/papers/coverage2013/background.html
Atmospheric Temperature Conclusion Still warming – questionable that it’s a slower rise But now – The Rest of the Story….
Temperature is only one manifestation ofour use of the atmosphere as a carbon waste dump Eleven Indicators of a Carbon Polluted Planet Ocean Acidification Modified From - http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment
Heat vs Temperature Heat is the amount of energy in a system. The SI units for heat are Joules. Temperature measures AVERAGE molecular motion in a system and is measured indegrees (F, C, or K).
The Atmospheric “GreenhouseEffect" Transformed toInfra-red = heat. Then what? Remainder escapesinto space some re-radiated out Some infra-red is absorbed by atmospheric gases Incoming Visible light WARNING: Not drawn to scale
Less escapesinto space If atmospheric gas density increases, more heat is retained by this ‘thermalblanket’ Warming What proportion of this trapped heat energy is absorbed by the atmosphere and causes atmospheric warming? Surface - LowerAtmosphere
Components of a Heating Planet http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=12
Cunning Properties of Water • High Specific Heat • Water molecules take relatively large amounts of heat to warm. • Imagine saucepan of air vs saucepan of water: • apply heat • which warms fastest? • High Latent Heat • When water changes state (ice water vapor); • Heat is consumed without a temperature change • Result is water consumes heat energy without warming very much • Maximum Density
Land and Sea Surface Temperature Warming faster in the last60 years than in 10,000 Oceans follow but lag http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/T_moreFigs/
Oceans as heat sinks Change not in global warming but in transfer of heat from upper to deep abyssal zones. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/jun/24/global-warming-pause-button?guni=Article:in%20body%20link
The Rest of the Story Regardless of the atmospheric temperature trend….. The planet continues to absorb heat from incoming trapped radiation It’s GLOBAL Warming – not Atmospheric Warming!
OR $271 b in US 97%