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ClimateGate

ClimateGate. Is Global Warming Completely Made-Up?. Introduction. On November 20, 2009 a computer hacker released 200 MB of data from the University of East Anglia's Hadley Climatic Research Unit (CRU) The data included over 1,000 emails and 3,000 documents

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ClimateGate

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  1. ClimateGate Is Global Warming Completely Made-Up?

  2. Introduction • On November 20, 2009 a computer hacker released 200 MB of data from the University of East Anglia's Hadley Climatic Research Unit (CRU) • The data included over 1,000 emails and 3,000 documents • Do these documents cast doubt on the reliability of the global warming data?

  3. Sun Solar Energy Solar Energy Earth’s Temperature

  4. Sun Solar Energy Radiative Cooling Earth’s Temperature

  5. Sun Solar Energy Radiative Cooling Earth’s Temperature

  6. Sun Solar Energy Radiative Cooling Earth’s Temperature

  7. Sun Greenhouse Effect

  8. Nitrogen (N2) Oxygen (O2) Argon (Ar) Water (H2O) Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4) Earth’s Atmospheric Gases Non-Greenhouse Gases >99% Greenhouse Gases <1%

  9. Sun Venus Runaway Greenhouse Effect • 97% carbon dioxide • 3% nitrogen • Water & sulfuric acid clouds • Temperature:860°F

  10. Carbon Dioxide

  11. Carbon Dioxide Levels Muana Loa Readings CO2 Levels Since 1958 370 350 CO2 (ppm) 330 310 40 30 20 10 0 420 370 320 CO2 (ppm) 270 220 Dome Concordia Vostok Ice Core 170 600000 400000 200000 0 Time (YBP)

  12. Worldwide Carbon Emissions Total Liquid fuel Solid fuel Gas fuel 8 7 6 5 Carbon (109 metric tons) 4 3 2 1 0 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year

  13. Annual Carbon Emissions Annual carbon emissions Atmospheric CO2 Atmospheric CO2 average 8 6 Carbon (109 metric tons) 4 2 0 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 Year

  14. University of East Anglia Emails • Most of the emails are benign exchanges between scientists, largely of a technical nature • Some emails show a desire to hide or manipulate data that doesn’t fit the “party line.” • These scientists are not merely impartial data analyzers, but political activists engaged in an effort to influence energy policy

  15. The Players • Phil: Philip Jones, Head of the CRU • Mike: Michael Mann, of hockey stick fame • Keith: Keith Briffa, CRU scientist • Stephen McIntyre: Global warming critic (ClimateAudit.org, “CA”)

  16. Fixing the Data?

  17. “Mike’s Nature Trick” From: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk> To: ray bradley <rbradley@geo.umass.edu>,mann@virginia.edu, mhughes@ltrr.arizona.edu Subject: Diagram for WMO Statement Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 13:31:15 +0000 Dear Ray, Mike and Malcolm, Once Tim's got a diagram here we'll send that either later today or first thing tomorrow. I've just completed Mike's Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from 1961 for Keith's to hide the decline. Mike's series got the annual land and marine values while the other two got April-Sept for NH land N of 20N. The latter two are real for 1999, while the estimate for 1999 for NH combined is +0.44C wrt 61-90. The Global estimate for 1999 with data through Oct is +0.35C cf. 0.57 for 1998. Thanks for the comments, Ray. Cheers Phil

  18. Program Coding (maps24.pro) • ; Plots 24 yearly maps of calibrated (PCR-infilled or not) MXD reconstructions • ; of growing season temperatures. Uses "corrected" MXD - but shouldn't usually • ; plot past 1960 because these will be artificially adjusted to look closer to • ; the real temperatures.

  19. Program Coding (calibrate_nhrecon.pro) • ; Specify period over which to compute the regressions (stop in 1960 to avoid • ; the decline that affects tree-ring density records)

  20. Program Coding (briffa_sep98_d.pro) • ; Apply a VERY ARTIFICAL correction for decline!! • ; • yrloc=[1400,findgen(19)*5.+1904] • valadj=[0.,0.,0.,0.,0.,-0.1,-0.25,-0.3,0.,-0.1,0.3,0.8,1.2,1.7,2.5,2.6,2.6,$ • 2.6,2.6,2.6]*0.75 ; fudge factor

  21. Past Temperatures Measurement • Proxy – a method that approximates a particular measurement (e.g., temperature) • Tree rings • Ice cores • Pollen records • Plant macrofossils • Sr/Ca isotope data • Oxygen isotopes from speleothem calcite (stalactites and stalagmites)

  22. “Hockey Stick” Controversy 0.6 Direct temperature measurements Mann et al. 1999 0.4 0.2 0 Temperature Change (°C) -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Year

  23. The Problem with Tree Rings 0.3 Jones et al. 1998 Briffa et al. 1999 Mann et al. 1999 0.2 0.1 0 -0.1 Temperature Change (°C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Year

  24. What Influences Tree Rings? • Temperature • Rainfall • Carbon dioxide concentration

  25. Is the Hockey Stick Correct? 2 Mann et al. 1999 Esper et al. 2002 1 0 Temperature Change (°C) -1 -2 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Year

  26. Medieval Warm Period Mann et al. 1999 Esper et al. 2002 Moberg et al. 2005 Mann et al. 2008 Is the Hockey Stick Correct? 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 Temperature Change (°C) -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.2 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 Year

  27. Responses/Rebuttals From Real Climate: • “…the ‘trick’ is just to plot the instrumental records along with reconstruction so that the context of the recent warming is clear. Scientists often use the term “trick” to refer to a “a good way to deal with a problem”, rather than something that is “secret”, and so there is nothing problematic in this at all.”

  28. Past Temperatures

  29. Recorded Worldwide Temperatures Decreasing Flat Flat 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 D Mean Temperature (°C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year

  30. Historic Los Angeles Temperatures Annual Temperatures Summer Temperatures Winter Temperatures 25 17 22 21 24 16 20 23 15 19 22 14 Temperature (°C) 18 21 13 17 20 12 16 19 11 15 18 10 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Year Year

  31. Temperature History of the Earth • For the past 3 million years, the earth has been experiencing ~100,000 year cycles of glaciation followed by ~10,000 year interglacial periods • These climate periods are largely the result of cycles in the earth’s orbit – precession, obliquity, and eccentricity

  32. Orbital Parameters: Precession Perihelion Apehelion

  33. 22.5° 24.5° Orbital Parameters: Obliquity

  34. Apehelion Apehelion Perihelion Orbital Parameters: Eccentricity Maximum: 0.061 Minimum: 0.005 Not to scale! To Scale!

  35. Precession(22 ky) Obliquity(41 ky) Eccentricity(100 ky) Temperature Orbital Parameters & Earth’s Climate 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Age (kya)

  36. Temperature History of the Earth • For the past 3 million years, the earth has been experiencing ~100,000 year long cycles of glaciation followed by ~10,000 year long interglacial periods • Last ice age began to thaw 15,000 years ago, but was interrupted by the “Younger Dryas” event 12,900 years ago

  37. YoungerDryas Medieval Warm Ice Age Little Ice Age Younger Dryas Event -25 0.35 -30 0.30 -35 0.25 Snow Accumulation (m/yr) -40 0.20 Temperature (°C) -45 0.15 -50 0.10 -55 0.05 20 15 10 5 0 Age (kya)

  38. Manipulating Data?

  39. Manipulating Data? From: Gary Funkhouser <gary@LTRR.Arizona.EDU> To: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Subject: kyrgyzstan and siberian data Date: Thu, 19 Sep 1996 15:37:09 -0700 Keith, Thanks for your consideration. Once I get a draft of the central and southern siberian data and talk to Stepan and Eugene I'll send it to you. I really wish I could be more positive about the Kyrgyzstan material, but I swear I pulled every trick out of my sleeve trying to milk something out of that. It was pretty funny though - I told Malcolm what you said about my possibly being too Graybill-like in evaluating the response functions - he laughed and said that's what he thought at first also. The data's tempting but there's too much variation even within stands. I don't think it'd be productive to try and juggle the chronology statistics any more than I already have - they just are what they are (that does sound Graybillian). I think I'll have to look for an option where I can let this little story go as it is.

  40. Manipulating Data? From: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk> To: tatm@insec.quorus.e-burg.su Subject: the Yamal data Date: Thu Oct 31 12:01:04 1996 Dear Rashit, In looking at the data I now see that you have only sent data from abot 350bc onwards. What is the situation with the earlier data. I am very interested in the details of the 1st millennium B.C. and especially this period from about 500 to 100 B.C. We still have a gap in the Tornetrask data at about 350 B.C. I was of the opinion that this period was very low growth in the chronology of yours shown by Stepan in Cambridge - but it does not seem so low in the chronology he gave me. What are your thoughts on this and is it possible to get the earlier data when you are happy with them?Thanks very best wishes Keith

  41. Manipulating Data? From: Tom Wigley <wigley@ucar.edu> To: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk> Subject: 1940s Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2009 23:25:38 -0600 Cc: Ben Santer <santer1@llnl.gov> Phil, Here are some speculations on correcting SSTs to partly explain the 1940s warming blip. If you look at the attached plot you will see that the land also shows the 1940s blip (as I'm sure you know). So, if we could reduce the ocean blip by, say, 0.15 degC, then this would be significant for the global mean -- but we'd still have to explain the land blip. I've chosen 0.15 here deliberately. This still leaves an ocean blip, and i think one needs to have some form of ocean blip to explain the land blip (via either some common

  42. Politicking? From: Joseph Alcamo <alcamo@usf.uni-kassel.de> To: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk, Rob.Swart@rivm.nl Subject: Timing, Distribution of the Statement Date: Thu, 9 Oct 1997 18:52:33 0100 Reply-to: alcamo@usf.uni-kassel.de Mike, Rob, Sounds like you guys have been busy doing good things for the cause. I would like to weigh in on two important questions --

  43. Politicking? From: "Graham F Haughton" <G.F.Haughton@hull.ac.uk> To: "Phil Jones" <p.jones@uea.ac.uk> Subject: RE: Dr Sonja BOEHMER-CHRISTIANSEN Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2009 17:32:24 -0000 I know, I feel for you being in that position. If its any consolation we've had it here for years, very pointed commentary at all external seminars and elsewhere, always coming back to the same theme. Since Sonja retired I am a lot more free to push my environmental interests without ongoing critique of my motives and supposed misguidedness - I've signed my department up to 10:10 campaign and have a taskforce of staff and students involved in it.... Every now and then people say to me sotto voce with some bemusement, 'and when Sonja finds out, how will you explain it to her...!' Graham

  44. Politicking? From: mann@snow.geo.umass.edu To: coleje@spot.colorado.edu, drdendro@ldgo.columbia.edu, jto@ngdc.noaa.gov, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, luckman@sscl.uwo.ca, p.jones@uea.ac.uk, rbradley@climate1.geo.umass.edu Subject: Re: climate of the last millennia... Date: Tue, 6 Oct 1998 11:06:20 -0400 (EDT) Dear all, I just wanted to thank Keith for his comments. They are right on target. There is indeed, as many of us are aware, at least one key player in the modeling community that has made overly dismissive statements about the value of proxy data as late, because of what might be argued as his/her own naive assessment/analysis of these data. This presents the danger of just the sort of backlash that Keith warns of, and makes all the more pressing the need for more of a community-wide strategizing on our part. I think the workshop in Jan that Peck is hosting will go far in this regard, and I personally am really looking forward to it!

  45. Politicking? From: Michael Mann <mann@meteo.psu.edu> To: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk> Subject: Re: attacks against Keith Date: Wed, 30 Sep 2009 11:06:20 -0400 Cc: Gavin Schmidt <gschmidt@giss.nasa.gov>, Tim Osborn <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk> Hi Phil, lets not get into the topic of hate mail. I promise you I could fill your inbox w/ a very long list of vitriolic attacks, diatribes, and threats I've received. Its part of the attack of the corporate-funded attack machine, i.e. its a direct and highly intended outcome of a highly orchestrated, heavily-funded corporate attack campaign. We saw it over the summer w/ the health insurance industry trying to defeat Obama's health plan, we'll see it now as the U.S. Senate moves on to focus on the cap & trade bill that passed congress this summer. It isn't coincidental that the original McIntyre and McKitrick E&E paper w/ press release came out the day before the U.S. senate was considering the McCain Lieberman climate bill in '05.

  46. Not Releasing Data Testimony of Stephen McIntyre Phil Jones (CRU): “We have 25 or so years invested in the work. Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it?” Written submission of Stephen McIntyre before the Subcommittee on oversight and investigations, Energy and Commerce Committee, United States House of Representatives, July 19, 2006.

  47. Not Releasing Data From: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk> To: mann@virginia.edu Subject: Fwd: CCNet: PRESSURE GROWING ON CONTROVERSIAL RESEARCHER TO DISCLOSE SECRET DATA Date: Mon Feb 21 16:28:32 2005 Cc: "raymond s. bradley" <rbradley@geo.umass.edu>, "Malcolm Hughes" <mhughes@ltrr.arizona.edu> Mike, Ray and Malcolm, The skeptics seem to be building up a head of steam here ! Maybe we can use this to our advantage to get the series updated !... …The IPCC comes in for a lot of stick. Leave it to you to delete as appropriate ! Cheers Phil PS I'm getting hassled by a couple of people to release the CRU station temperature data. Don't any of you three tell anybody that the UK has a Freedom of Information Act !

  48. Not Releasing Data From: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk> To: Tom Wigley <wigley@cgd.ucar.edu> Subject: Re: FOIA Date: Fri Jan 21 15:20:06 2005 Tom, I'll look at what you've said over the weekend re CCSP. I don't know the other panel members. I've not heard any more about it since agreeing a week ago. As for FOIA Sarah isn't technically employed by UEA and she will likely be paid by Manchester Metropolitan University. I wouldn't worry about the code. If FOIA does ever get used by anyone, there is also IPR to consider as well. Data is covered by all the agreements we sign with people, so I will be hiding behind them. I'll be passing any requests onto the person at UEA who has been given a post to deal with them. Cheers Phil

  49. Not Releasing Data From: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk> To: santer1@llnl.gov, Tom Wigley <wigley@ucar.edu> Subject: Re: Schles suggestion Date: Wed Dec 3 13:57:09 2008 Ben, When the FOI requests began here, the FOI person said we had to abide by the requests. It took a couple of half hour sessions - one at a screen, to convince them otherwise showing them what CA was all about. Once they became aware of the types of people we were dealing with, everyone at UEA (in the registry and in the Environmental Sciences school - the head of school and a few others) became very supportive. I've got to know the FOI person quite well and the Chief Librarian - who deals with appeals. The VC is also aware of what is going on - at least for one of the requests, but probably doesn't know the number we're dealing with. We are in double figures.

  50. Not Releasing Data From: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk> To: "Michael E. Mann" <mann@meteo.psu.edu> Subject: IPCC & FOI Date: Thu May 29 11:04:11 2008 Mike, Can you delete any emails you may have had with Keith re AR4? Keith will do likewise. He's not in at the moment - minor family crisis. Can you also email Gene and get him to do the same? I don't have his new email address. We will be getting Caspar to do likewise. I see that CA claim they discovered the 1945 problem in the Nature paper!! Cheers Phil

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