Forecasting Malaria Incidence in Botswana Using the DEMETER Data

1. Forecasting Malaria Incidencein Botswana Using the DEMETER Data Simon Mason International Research Institute for Climate and Society The Earth Institute of Columbia University ECMWF Users� Meeting Reading, England, 15 � 17 June, 2005

2. Malaria in Africa

3. Malaria in Botswana

4. Malaria in Botswana

7. Malaria in Africa

8. Other factors driving trend and/or interannual variability: Intrinsic population dynamics Access to health facilities/reporting Drug sensitivity Insecticide sensitivity Seasonal and long term migration HIV

20. The use of seasonal climate forecasts for malaria in Southern Africa is demand led. But seasonal forecasts form only part of the inputs to a malaria early warning system. Institutions are already organised and policies in place for the use of seasonal forecasts. Causal relationship between climate and malaria known. There is a strong influence of seasonal rainfall on detrended malaria incidence. There is high predictability of detrended malaria incidence using DEMETER forecasts.

Forecasting Malaria Incidence in Botswana Using the DEMETER Data

Forecasting Malaria Incidence in Botswana Using the DEMETER Data

Presentation Transcript

Using Standardized Anomaly Data in Operational Forecasting

Using Standardized Anomaly Data in Operational Forecasting

Using Netflow data for forecasting

Forecasting Malaria Incidence in Botswana Using the DEMETER Data

Demeter

Demeter

Demeter

Demeter

Demeter

Using an Epsilon trap in Botswana….

Demeter

Demeter

Using Netflow data for forecasting

Demeter

The DEMETER satellite: Payload, Operations and Data

Seasonal Forecasting From DEMETER to ENSEMBLES

Using Standard Deviation Data in Operational Forecasting

Forecasting the risk of malaria epidemics using climate prediction models

Experimental Prediction of Climate-related Malaria Incidence

Using Standard Deviation Data in Operational Forecasting

Using Netflow data for forecasting