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Modeling Intercontinental Transport, Hemispheric Pollution, And Climate Linkages At GFDL

Modeling Intercontinental Transport, Hemispheric Pollution, And Climate Linkages At GFDL. Arlene M. Fiore Larry W. Horowitz. NOAA/EPA Scientist-to-Scientist Meeting Boulder, CO October 28, 2004.

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Modeling Intercontinental Transport, Hemispheric Pollution, And Climate Linkages At GFDL

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  1. Modeling Intercontinental Transport, Hemispheric Pollution, And Climate Linkages At GFDL Arlene M. Fiore Larry W. Horowitz NOAA/EPA Scientist-to-Scientist Meeting Boulder, CO October 28, 2004

  2. Air quality-Climate Linkage:CH4, O3 are important greenhouse gasesCH4 contributes to background O3in surface air O3 greenhouse gas Free Troposphere hn Global Background O3 (Hemispheric Pollution) NO NO2 OH HO2 Boundary layer (0-3 km) Direct Intercontinental Transport VOC,CH4, CO air pollution (smog) NOx NMVOCs O3 NOx NMVOCs O3 air pollution (smog) CONTINENT 1 CONTINENT 2 OCEAN

  3. Trans-Pacific Transport (ITCT 2K2)

  4. Trans-Pacific Transport (ITCT 2K2)

  5. Trans-Pacific Transport (ITCT 2K2) CO (ppbv), 500hPa, April 28 – May 5, 2002

  6. Trans-Pacific Transport (ITCT 2K2) May 05 Flight

  7. May 05 Flight, CO (ppbv)

  8. May 05 Flight, CO (ppbv)  Direct intercontinental transport of CO leads to observed enhancements in total concentrations

  9. Episodic O3 enhancements not usually detected  hemispheric background influence Asian O3 (ppbv) at surface in MOZART-2April-May 2002 Mean

  10. Methane emissions enhance global O3 background Decrease in MOZART-2 July 1995 Mean Surface O3 concentrations from 50% reductions in global anthropogenic CH4 emissions ppbv  Results consistent with earlier GEOS-CHEM results

  11. Air Quality-Climate Linkage: Impacts of future changes in global anthropogenic emissions (GEOS-CHEM; 4°x5°) Number of U.S. summer grid-square days with O3 > 80 ppbv Radiative Forcing* (W m-2) 50% anth. CH4 50% anth. NOx 50% anth. VOC 2030 A1 2030 B1 1995 (base) 50% anth. VOC 50% anth. CH4 50% anth. NOx 2030 A1 2030 B1 CH4 links air quality & climate via background O3 Fiore et al., GRL, 2002

  12. Methane emission reductions shift entire summertime afternoon surface O3 frequency distribution over U.S.(GEOS-CHEM results) Probability ppbv-1 Ozone Concentration (ppbv)

  13. Near-term MOZART-2 simulations for addressing hemispheric pollution(NCEP T62 ~1.9° resolution) • Sensitivity simulations with various combinations of global/national/sector reductions in CH4 emissions • Global & regional climate forcings • Characterize ozone response - methane emissions relationship • Contribute to IPCC AR4 atmospheric chemistry section • 2030: IIASA scenarios (2000 base, BAU, MFR) & SRES A2 • 2100: IPCC scenarios • AEROCOM (present-day) • Historical 1860-1990 (decadal)

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