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Developments at GFDL

Developments at GFDL. Leo Donner. WGNE, Tokyo, 20 October 2010. Global Model and Parameterization Development. CM3: Atmosphere-Ocean-Land-Sea Ice Model with Aerosol-Cloud Interactions Decadal Prediction Model Earth-System Models High-Resolution Atmospheric Models

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Developments at GFDL

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  1. Developments at GFDL Leo Donner WGNE, Tokyo, 20 October 2010

  2. Global Model and Parameterization Development • CM3: Atmosphere-Ocean-Land-Sea Ice Model with Aerosol-Cloud Interactions • Decadal Prediction Model • Earth-System Models • High-Resolution Atmospheric Models • Parameterization and Climate Processes

  3. CM3 and ESM IPCC AR5 Integrations Underway CM3 Integrations Lead, Larry Horowitz

  4. CM3: First GFDL Climate Model with Indirect Aerosol Effects Globally Averaged Temperature Change (1980-2000) minus (1881-1920) (5-member ensembles for models) (from Donner et al., 2010, J. Climate, submitted) CM3 cloud-aerosol interactions from physically based aerosol activation driven by sub-grid PDFs of vertical velocity in shallow cumulus and stratiform clouds (Ming et al., 2006, JAS; Golaz et al., 2010, JCL, submit).

  5. from Donner et al. (2010, J. Climate, submitted)

  6. from Donner et al. (2010, J. Climate, submitted)

  7. from Donner et al. (2010, J. Climate, submitted)

  8. Taylor diagrams from Donner et al. (2010, J. Climate, submitted)

  9. Taylor Diagrams for TOA Radiation Fields from Donner et al. (2010, J. Climate, submitted)

  10. Coupled Data Assimilation is enabling major improvement in ENSO prediction.

  11. (from Tony Rosati, GFDL) NINO3 SSTA forecast skills norm RMS errors 1.0 Anomaly Correlation Coeff 0.6 Dec 3Dvar Lead Time Jan Dec CDA Jan Jan Dec Jan Dec Initial Time Initial Time

  12. High-Resolution Atmospheric Modeling:Atlantic Hurricanes and Anthropogenic Warming

  13. Fig. 1 Simulated and observed histograms of maximum surface wind speed (m/s) in the Atlantic basin M. A. Bender et al., Science 327, 454-458 (2010) Published by AAAS

  14. Fig. 3 (Left) Tracks for all storms reaching category 4 or 5 intensity, for the control and the warmed 18-model ensemble conditions, as obtained using the GFDL/NWS hurricane model M. A. Bender et al., Science 327, 454-458 (2010) Published by AAAS

  15. Fig. 4 Model tracks for all storms that eventually reached category 4 or 5 intensity, for the control (top) and the warm climate conditions provided by the four individual CMIP3 models M. A. Bender et al., Science 327, 454-458 (2010) Published by AAAS

  16. A CPT for Cloud Parameterization and Aerosol Indirect Effects Supported by

  17. Advance prognostic moment equations Use PDF to close higher-order moments, buoyancy terms Select PDF from functional form to match moments Diagnose cloud fraction, liquid water, droplet number from PDF Building a PDF-based parameterization 1 - Prognose 3 - Close 2 - Select Adapted from Golaz et al. 2002a,b (JAS)

  18. from Guo et al. (2010, Geosci. Mod. Dev. Disc.)

  19. AM3 Single Column Model using Multi-Variate Probability Density Function with Dynamics, Aerosol Activation, and Double-Moment Microphysics from Guo et al. (2010, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss.)

  20. NOAA Climate Modeling and Research System (CMRS) Elements and Schedule of the Subcontract Award to Cray, Inc May 2010

  21. NOAA Climate Modeling and Research System (CMRS) Computing Capability Timeline at Oak Ridge National Lab Negotiated Options for both FY2015 and FY2016 1.1 PF CMRS.2 Installation CMRS.2 720 TF 980 TF CMRS.2 720 TF CMRS.1 Installation CMRS.1 UPG386TF 260 TF CMRS.1260 TF FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2014 FY 2010 FY 2013 CMRS.1 Operational NLT 1 Oct 2010 CMRS.2 Operational NLT 1 Oct 2011

  22. Summary • GFDL, in support of IPCC AR5, has developed a new generation of coupled physical and earth-system models. Integrations for AR5 are mostly completed. • Multiple nesting approach has provided framework for considering tropical cyclones and anthropogenic warming. • Coupled ocean-atmosphere data assimilation promising for ENSO prediction • NSF/NOAA Climate Process Teams active • New off-site computing

  23. AM3/LM3: Atmosphere and Land in CM3 What is NEW in AM3? Interactive chemistry to link emissions to aerosol composition Sub-grid vertical velocity PDFs for convective and stratiform clouds =>Supersaturation at cloud scale for aerosol activation on sulfate/black carbon, organic carbon, and sea salt Stratospheric model for chemistry and possible links to troposphere on multi-year time scales (e.g., Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode) More realistic land precipitation for land carbon and nitrogen models Cubed-sphere finite-volume dy-core Dynamic vegetation model with hydrology and land use 23

  24. Parameterizations based on sub-grid PDFs of verticalvelocity have been implemented in AM3 • Deep convection: Donner et al. (2001, J. Climate),Wilcox and Donner (2007, J. Climate) • Shallow convection: Bretherton et al. (2004, Mon. Wea. Rev.) implemented by Ming Zhao • Stratiform: modfication of Tiedtke (1993, Mon. Wea. Rev.) by Chris Golaz, to include w PDF for activation only

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