diffusion theory in marketing a historical perspective frank m bass 1999 n.
Download
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
Diffusion Theory in Marketing: A Historical Perspective Frank M. Bass, 1999 PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
Diffusion Theory in Marketing: A Historical Perspective Frank M. Bass, 1999

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 30

Diffusion Theory in Marketing: A Historical Perspective Frank M. Bass, 1999 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 431 Views
  • Uploaded on

Diffusion Theory in Marketing: A Historical Perspective Frank M. Bass, 1999. Before Bass (BB): Tarde: 1903 New Ideas Epidemiology: Disease Rogers (1962): Bell-Shaped Curve-Innovators and Imitators “Discussion largely literary”

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Diffusion Theory in Marketing: A Historical Perspective Frank M. Bass, 1999' - paul


Download Now An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
diffusion theory in marketing a historical perspective frank m bass 1999
Diffusion Theory in Marketing:A Historical PerspectiveFrank M. Bass, 1999
  • Before Bass (BB): Tarde: 1903 New Ideas
  • Epidemiology: Disease
  • Rogers (1962): Bell-Shaped Curve-Innovators and Imitators
  • “Discussion largely literary”
  • 1999-is 30th Anniversary of Publication of Bass Model, Management Science (1969)

Copyright, (c)

Frank M. Bass, 1999

(c) Frank M. Bass (1999)

the bass model
The Bass Model
  • Diffusion of Innovations
  • Mark Twain and the Price of a Lecture
  • “Bass Model”: Urban and Hauser (1980)
  • More than 250 Papers: Applications, Refinements, and Extensions
  • Central Themes of this Historical Perspective: Empirical Generalization and Science

(c) Frank M. Bass (1999)

history published in management science in1969 a new product growth model for consumer durables

HistoryPublished in Management Science in1969, “A New Product Growth Model For Consumer Durables”

Working Paper 1966

(c) Frank M. Bass (1999)

color tv forecast 1966
Color TV Forecast 1966

Industry Built

Capacity For

14 million units

Peak in

1968

(c) Frank M. Bass (1999)

empirical generalizations and science
Empirical Generalizations and Science
  • Philosophy of Science-Nagel (1961): “Science Seeks to Provide Generalized Explanatory Statements About Phenomena”
  • Marketing Science (1995) Special Issue on
  • Empirical Generalizations in Marketing
  • ETET vs TETE - Ehrenberg
  • “Higher Level Theories”- Bass

(c) Frank M. Bass (1999)

slide7

Bass Model:100’s of Applications-An Empirical GeneralizationWidely CitedNumerous ExtensionsPublished in Several Languages

Growing Software Applications

(c) Frank M. Bass (1999)

how to become famous
How to become famous
  • Get Lucky!

(c) Frank M. Bass (1999)

the model
The Model
  • f(t)/[1-F(t)]=p+qF(t) Hazard Model
  • m=ultimate market potential
  • p=coefficient of innovation
  • q=coefficient of imitation
  • S(t)=mf(t)=m[p+qF(t)][1-F(t)]
  • =pm+(q-p)Y(t)-(q/m)[y(T)]2

(c) Frank M. Bass (1999)

a differential equation
A Differential Equation
  • Solution: S(t) =
  • m[(p+q)2/p]e-(p+q)t/(1+(q/p)e-(p+q)t)2
  • t*=1/(p+q)Ln(q/p)
  • Beautiful !

t*=Time of Peak Sales

(c) Frank M. Bass (1999)

special cases when p 0 and q 0
Special Cases When p=0 and q=0
  • Fourt and Woodlock q=0, Exponential Distribution, (1960) Grocery Products Journal of Marketing
  • Mansfield, p=0, Logistic Distribution, (1961) Industrial Products (Locomotives) Econometrica

(c) Frank M. Bass (1999)

why it works saturation
Why it Works--Saturation
  • S(t)=m[p+qF(t)][(1-F(t)]

Gets Bigger

and Bigger

Gets Smaller

and Smaller

(c) Frank M. Bass (1999)

an empirical generalization
An Empirical Generalization

(c) Frank M. Bass (1999)

another example 35 mm projectors
Another Example 35 mm Projectors

(c) Frank M. Bass (1999)

another example overhead projectors
Another Example: Overhead Projectors

(c) Frank M. Bass (1999)

some extensions
Some Extensions
  • Successive Generations of Technologies:
  • Norton & Bass (87,92)
  • Generalized Bass Model: Includes Decision Variables:
  • Prices, Advertising

(c) Frank M. Bass (1999)

successive generations of technology the law of capture migration growth
Successive Generations of Technology The Law of Capture-Migration&Growth
  • The Equations: Three Generations
  • S1,t=F(t1)m1[1-F(t2)]
  • S2,t=F(t2)[m2+F(t1)m1][1-F(t3)]
  • S3,t=F(t3){m3+F(t2)[m2+F(t1)m1]}
  • mi=incremental market potential for gen.i
  • ti=time since introduction of ith generation and F(ti) is Bass Model cumulative function and p and q are the same for each generation

(c) Frank M. Bass (1999)

capture law drams norton and bass management science 1987 sloan management review 1992
Capture Law- DRAMSNorton and Bass: Management Science (1987)Sloan Management Review (1992)

(c) Frank M. Bass (1999)

capture law mainframes beautiful
Capture Law-Mainframes-Beautiful!

(c) Frank M. Bass (1999)

slide20

Generations of PC’s

(c) Frank M. Bass (1999)

what about prices
What About Prices ?

(c) Frank M. Bass (1999)

generalized bass model bass krishnan and jain 1994 marketing science
Generalized Bass Model: Bass, Krishnan, andJain (1994) Marketing Science
  • A Higher Level Theory
  • Must Reduce as Special Case to Bass Model
  • Prices Fall Exponentially

(c) Frank M. Bass (1999)

the bass model bm and gbm
The Bass Model (BM) and GBM
  • BM: f(t)/[1-F(t)]=[p+qF(t)]
  • GBM: f(t)/[1-F(t)]=x(t)[p+qF(t)]
  • where x(t) is a function of percentage change in price and other variables

(c) Frank M. Bass (1999)

effects of different prices
Effects of Different Prices

(c) Frank M. Bass (1999)

slide25

Impulse Response Comparison:

GBM and “Current Effects” Model

“Carry-Through” Effects for GBM

(c) Frank M. Bass (1999)

some applications
Some Applications
  • Guessing Without Data:
  • Satellite Television
  • Satellite Telephone (Iridium)
  • New LCD Projector
  • Wireless Telephone Adoption Around World and Pricing Effects
  • Projecting Worldwide PC Growth

(c) Frank M. Bass (1999)

satellite tv forecast 1993 guessing by analogy and purchase intentions
Satellite TV Forecast-1993-”Guessing By Analogy” and Purchase Intentions
  • Use of “Adjusting Stated Intention Measures to Predict Trial Purchase of New Products: A Comparison …” Journal of Marketing Research (1989), Jamieson and Bass
  • “Guessing By Analogy”: Cable TV vs.Color TV

(c) Frank M. Bass (1999)

projection of world wide pc demand 1999 2010 data from bill gates newsweek
Projection of World-Wide PC Demand, 1999-2010-Data From Bill Gates, Newsweek

5-31-99

(c) Frank M. Bass (1999)

bottom line and quotation

Bottom Line and Quotation

“In Forecasting the Time of Peak It is Helpful to Know that a Peak Exists”

By Frank Bass

(c) Frank M. Bass (1999)