Primaries and Presidential Elections

1. Primaries and Presidential Elections

2. Kinds of Elections • Primary Elections: • Election in which voters decide which of the candidates within a party will represent the party in the general election. • Closed primary: a primary election in which only a party’s registered voters are eligible to vote • Open primary: a primary in which party members, independents, and sometimes members of the other party are allowed to vote • Crossover voting: participation in the primary of a party with which the voter is not affiliated • Raiding: An organized attempt by voters of one party to influence the primary results of the other party • A nonpartisan blanket primary (also known as a Louisiana primary or Jungle Primary) is a primary election in which all candidates for elected office run in the same primary regardless of political party.

3. General Elections • General elections are those in which voters decide which candidates will actually fill elective public offices • Held at many levels. • Contests between the candidates of opposing parties

4. Initiative, Referendum, and Recall • Initiative • An election that allows citizens to propose legislation and submit it to the state electorate for popular vote • Referendum • An election whereby the state legislature submits proposed legislation to the state’s voters for approval • Recall • Voters can remove an incumbent from office by popular vote • Are very rare

5. Presidential Elections • Primary elections or caucuses are used to elect national convention delegates which choose the nominee • Winner-take-all primary • Proportional representation primary • Caucus

7. Primaries v. Caucuses • Over years, trend has been to use primaries rather than caucuses to choose delegates • Caucus is the oldest, most party-oriented method of choosing delegates to the national conventions • Arguments for primaries • More democratic • More representative • A rigorous test for the candidate • Arguments for caucuses • Caucus participants more informed; more interactive and informative • Unfair scheduling affects outcomes • Frontloading (being first in the primary calendar) gives some primary states an advantage • Frontloading is the tendency to choose an early date on the primary schedule

8. The Party Conventions • Out-of-power party holds its convention first, in late July, followed in mid-August by party holding the presidency • Conventions were decision-making body in the 19th century • Today the convention is fundamentally different • Nominations settled well in advance of the convention

9. The Party Conventions: Delegate Selections • Unit Rule • A traditional party practice under which the majority of a state delegation can force the minority to vote for its candidate • Abolished by the Democrats • New Democratic party rule decrees that state’s delegates be chosen in proportion to the votes cast in its primary or caucus. (30% of votes = 30% delegates from that state) – proportional allocation • Superdelegates • Delegate slot to the Democratic Party’s national convention that is reserved for an elected party official • Some rules originating in Democratic Party have been enacted as state laws thus applying them to the Republican Party as well.

10. National Conventions: The News Media • Changing nature of coverage • No prime time coverage on some days • Extending coverage on the final day of each convention • Reflects change in political culture • More interest in the candidates themselves • Convention still generates much coverage for the party

11. The Electoral College • The institution that formally elects the president of the United States • Representatives of each state (electors) who cast the final ballots that actually elect a president • Total number of electors for each state equal to the number of senators and representatives that a state has in the U.S. Congress • District of Columbia is given 3 electoral votes

12. The Electoral College • Result of compromise between: • Selection by Congress versus direct popular election • Three essentials to understanding the design of the Electoral College: • Constructed to work without political parties • Constructed to cover both the nominating and electing phases of presidential selection • Constructed to produce a nonpartisan president

13. The Electoral College in the 19th Century • 12th Amendment (1804) • Attempt to remedy the confusion between the selection of vice presidents and presidents that emerged in the election 1800 • Provided for separate elections for each office, with each elector having only one vote to cast for each • In event of a tie, the election still went to the House • Top three candidates go to House • Each state House delegation casts one vote

14. The Electoral College in the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries • Electoral college crises • At times a candidate can win the Electoral College vote without having won the popular vote • Reapportionment matters • Representation of states in the Electoral College is altered every ten years to reflect population shifts • Recent reapportionment has favored the Republicans • With the exception of California, George W. Bush carried all of the states that gained seats in 2000

15. The Electoral College Reconsidered • Popular Vote • Congressional District Plan • Keep the College, Abolish the Electors

17. Congressional Elections • Very different from presidential elections • Lesser known candidates, more difficulty getting media attention • Incumbency Advantage • Staff support • Media and travel • The “Scare-off” effect • Redistricting/Gerrymandering

18. Congressional Elections • When incumbents lose it is generally due to: • Redistricting • Gerrymandering • Scandals • Presidential Coattails

19. Midterm Congressional Elections • Election takes place in the middle of a presidential term • President’s party usually loses seats in midterms • Tendency for voters to punish the president’s party more severely in the sixth year of an eight year presidency - 6th year itch • Retrospective voting • Senate elections less inclined to the 6th year itch • 2002 midterm elections were a remarkable exception • Bush picked up seats in the House and Senate • 2006 midterm elections: backlash against the Republicans

22. Reforming the Electoral Process • Focus on the Electoral College • Other areas • Nomination • Regional primaries • Campaign Finance Reform • Online Voting • Voting by Mail • Modernizing the Ballot