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Presidential Primaries:

Presidential Primaries:. pt 2. Themes. What makes a frontrunner (before any votes cast)? Where do media expectations come from? Why so much volatility in GOP polls. How it works in 2012. About 2286 delegates at stake (R) An odd sequence of events:

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Presidential Primaries:

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  1. Presidential Primaries: pt 2

  2. Themes • What makes a frontrunner (before any votes cast)? • Where do media expectations come from? • Why so much volatility in GOP polls

  3. How it works in 2012 • About 2286 delegates at stake (R) • An odd sequence of events: • IA (1/3), NH (1/10), SC (1/21), Fl (1/31), NV (2/4), ME (2/4*), CO & MN (2/7), AZ & MI (2/28), WA (3/3); 10 states on 3/10, etc. • Proportional allocation of delegates if before 4/1 • Results from first event have consequences for subsequent events

  4. How it worked in 2008 • About 4200 delegates at stake (D) • An odd sequence of events: • IA (1/3), NH (1/8), MI (1/15), NV (1/19), SC (1/26), Fl (1/29), 23 states on 2/5/2008 • WA on 2/9 (w/ 2 other states)

  5. 2012 Nomination Schedule (R) State # delegates % of total IA 28 1.21% NH 12* 0.52% SC 25* 1.09% NV 28 1.22% FL 50* 2.18% ME 24 1.05% CO & MN 76 3.32% AZ & MI 59* 2.58% WA (3/3) 43 1.88% March 6 438 19.20% 34% of delegates awarded by March 6 2012

  6. 2012 GOP Nomination • Super Tuesday less super • AK, GA, ID, MA, ND, OH, OK, TN, VT, VA • Which candidate advantaged? • PR until April 1 • Harder for frontrunner to deliver ‘knockout’ blow

  7. 2008 Nomination Schedule (D) State # delegates % of total IA 45 1.07% NV 25 .59% NH 22 .52% SC 45 1.07% FL (1/29) 185 4.40% 23 states on 2/5 2075 51.36% WA on 2/9 97 2.31% LA, NE, VI (2/9) 110 2.72% 61% of delegates awarded by Feb 10 2008

  8. Primary campaigns • Concentrate resources on early states • Visits, spending, ads • Hope for momentum; force others out early • See NYT map

  9. How it works • Frontloading • Early wins for frontrunner • IA, NH, done by Super Tuesday • Momentum & inevitability or.... • no clear winner • Party Establishment advantage • PLEOs, endorsements (168 GOP PLEOs, 7%) • Funding • Most money = winner

  10. How it was supposed to work ‘08 • 2008 frontrunners • H. R. Clinton • led national polls Oct 06 - Feb 08 • led IA polls Aug - Dec 07 • Giuliani • Led national polls 2007 • Romney led in IA • McCain never more than 20% until Jan 13 2008

  11. How it was supposed to work ‘12 • 2012 frontrunner? • Trump (26% April ‘11) • Romney (25% June ) • Bachman (27% IA Aug) • Perry (32% Sept) • Cain (26% Oct.) • Gingrich (35% Dec.) • Paul (25% IA Dec.) • Romney (26% today)

  12. Iowa 2012 • Romney 24.5 • Santorum 24.5 • Paul 21.4 • Gingrich 13.3 • Perry 10.3 • Bachman 5.0 • Huntsman 0.6

  13. What Influence of Iowa & NH? • Since Carter (1976) • More visits to IA • More time in IA • More spending in IA • More media in IA • same w/ NH • Greater importance of IA? • 2011 Straw poll • 2007 Straw poll • Sam Brownback, Tommy Thompson, Huckabee • Dan Quayle 1999

  14. Why Iowa & New Hampshire • Why do these states go first? • National party rule, tradition, stupidity • Why do so many candidates spend so much time there? • Momentum, momentum, momentum

  15. Remember this guy? • Frontrunner in national polls 2003 • Moved to New Hampshire • 81% name ID • 2nd place in early NH polls • Ignored Iowa

  16. Remember this guy? • Frontrunner in national polls 2003 • Moved to New Hampshire • 81% name ID • 2nd place in early NH polls • Ignored Iowa

  17. How about this guy? • John Edwards • Never considered a frontrunner pre-’04 • 50% of Dems never heard of him in 2003 • “Second place” in IA 2004 (Dems don’t report votes).

  18. Or this guy? • Led some national polls in 2003 • Fundraising leader = major expectations • Third place in IA • The Scream • Stick a fork in it

  19. The Scream • People in NH reported seeing “scream” at least 11 times prior to voting in their primary • Fox News version • Crowd version

  20. Opinion in Iowa, 2003-04 75 50 dean kerry gep ed 25 0 3-Aug 2-Jul 6-Jun 6-Jan 5-Feb 9-Nov 15-Oct 23-Oct 31-Oct 19-Dec 21-Jan 29-Apr 19-Jan 29-Aug 14-Sep 14-Mar 24-Nov 12-May date

  21. How Does it Play in the Media: Dean’s “Stunning Setback.” Iowa, 2003-04 40 30 20 10 0 2-Jul 6-Jun 6-Jan 5-Feb 3-Aug 9-Nov 15-Oct 23-Oct 31-Oct 19-Dec 21-Jan 29-Apr 19-Jan 29-Aug 14-Sep 14-Mar 24-Nov 12-May date

  22. Failed frontrunner, 2008 • Mitt Romney • Spent $85K p day on TV in 2007 • Spent $2.5 m on TV for IA straw poll • Spent another $2.4 m on mail, other ads • Won Aug ‘07 IA straw poll • Earned media, earned high expectations

  23. 2007 - 2008 GOP trends • IA never gots Romney traction nationally • He lead in IA polls for months in 2007 • Lost IA to a guy w/ a funny Youtube ad • 34% H, 25% R, 13% Mc • End of Romney ‘08

  24. Early Momentum • Many campaigns believe that performance in early events determines their fate • “Performance” in early events defined as much by reality, as by interpretation

  25. IA, NH, and Expectations • New Hampshire 1972 • Ed Muskie 46% • George McGovern 37% • Interpretation • Muskie “cried”

  26. IA, NH, and Expectations • Iowa, 1976 • Jimmy Carter second at 27%; B. Bayh 13% • lost to “Uncommitted” (37%) • Interprentation: • “Carter Defeats Bayh 2 - 1”NYT

  27. IA, NH, and Expectations • Iowa, 1988 • Dick Gephart 31% • Paul Simon 27% • Mike Dukakis 22% • Interpretation: • Gephart & Simon locals, expected to do well • Dukakis “strong showing”

  28. IA, NH and expectations • Iowa 1984, 1988, NH 1996 • Hart (D) 16% in IA 1984 • Robertson (R) 25% in IA 1988 (2nd) • Buchanan (R) 23% in NH 1996 (2nd, Dole 26%) • Interpretation • “Hart scores upset” ....32% behind Mondale, beat McGovern • “strong second in surprise”NYT

  29. IA, NH & Expectations • 1992, NH Reality • Paul Tsongas 33% • Bill Clinton 24 % • Bob Kerry 11 % • Interpretation • Big win for Clinton, the “comeback kid” • Tsongas from MA, expected to do well, Clinton expected to do poorly

  30. IA, NH & Expectations • NH 2004 • Kerry 39% • Dean 26% • Clark 13 % • Edwards 12 % • Interpretation • two candidate race: Kerry v. Edwards • Dean was expected to do better, Clark won in states in wrong time zone

  31. Media influence & expectations • Basis of initial expectations • standing in early polls • fundraising • Beating early expectations • Big shift in attention (deserved?) • Failing to meet expectations • Big drop in attention

  32. Media influence & expectations • How is the 2012 result being interpreted by media • What were expectations? • Who beat expectations? Who gets most media bounce? • Who failed to meet expectations?

  33. Beating expectations (Media shift) • Hart 1984 37% • Reagan 1976 36% • Clinton 1992 35% • Buchanan 28% • Carter 1976 25% • Huckabee 2008 21% • Robertson 1988 20% • Obama 2008 17%

  34. Media Shift, 2012 after IA • Romney 33% pre, 37% post • Paul 20% pre, 17% post • Gingrich 20% pre, 11% post • Perry 9% pre, 7% post • Bachman 7% pre, 3% post • Santorum 9% pre, 21% post • Huntsman 2% pre, 2% post

  35. Lessons from 2008 • Early frontrunners not always strong • Polls capture name ID • Dem process = real danger of no clear winner • Frontloading doesn’t help frontrunners • Instant fundraising now possible (Internet)

  36. Lessons from 2008 • Could Obama have won w/o Iowa? • 4 days between IA and NH • Could Huckabee have been noticed w/o Iowa • Could Obama have won w/o the Internet?

  37. Lessons from 2008 • Sequence matters • IA, NH matter....too much? • The schedule matters....2012? • What if NV went first? NY? WA? • What reforms?

  38. Earliest polls for 2012 • The polls: Feb, April, Dec ‘10 • Palin 25%, 15%, 17% • Huck 32%, 24%, 18% • Rom 21%, 20%, 19%

  39. Dem, Jan ‘07, 1 year before IA Clinton 34% Obama 18% Edwards 15% Gore 10% Kerry 5% Bidden 3% GOP, Jan ‘07 1 year before IA Giuliani 32% McCain 26% Gingrich 9% Romney 7% Pataki 3% Huckabee 1% Looking back to 2007

  40. Reforms • Regional Primaries • National primary • What if everyone voted on Feb 5th 2008 • Closed primaries • Rush Limbaugh, Operation Chaos

  41. Reforms • Regional primary • how implement? • who goes first? • Delaware Plan • 10 smallest states first • 10 next largest states, • etc.

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