Dropout Prevention – Using Data to Predict Student Outcome

1. Dropout Prevention – Using Data to Predict Student Outcome August 24, 2010

2. “Today, young people who leave high school without excellent and flexible reading and writing skills stand at a great disadvantage. In the past, those students who dropped out of high school could count on an array of options for establishing a productive and successful life. But in a society driven by knowledge and ever-accelerating demands for reading and writing skills, very few options exist for young people lacking a high school diploma.” – Carnegie Corporation of New York

3. A National Epidemic • Approximately 1 in 8 children in the U.S. never graduate from high school • Every nine seconds a student drops out of high school • On average, students from low-income families are at increased risk of not completing school • Graduation rates well below national average for: • Racial-ethnic minorities • Males • Especially male students from Historically underserved groups

4. Dropping Out is Not Just an Urban Problem

5. What the Data Shows • Dropping out of school is a process of disengagement that begins early • Data can help identify students at risk of failing to graduate within four years of entering high school or dropping out • No single factor can account for decision to leave school. Here are the most common reasons given by 10th-12th graders for dropping out: • Lack of educational support • Outside influences • Special needs • Financial problems • Lack of interest • Drug and alcohol abuse • Depression and physical illnesses • Physical abuse • Teen pregnancy • Alternative lifestyles Source: U.S. Department of Education

6. The Need for Early Warning Systems • Research suggests that students send distress signals years before dropping out • Most students who drop out follow identifiable patterns of failing grades and poor attendance • Many school systems have developed “on-track and off-track indicators” that identify students at risk of dropping out long before the student makes the choice • Students display the signs of distress as early as elementary. Existing research indicates three areas of concern: • Early chronic absenteeism – how many students are missing a month or more of school in K-3 • Acquiring basic reading skills – how many students enter 3rd grade without strong reading skills • Positive school experiences – how many students are having serious behavioral problems in K-3 Source: Grad Nation, “A Guidebook to Help Communities Tackle The Dropout Crisis”

7. The Effect of Attendance on Student Success Chronically absent kindergarteners in a six city study had the lowest performance on 5th grade assessments. Source: Chang and Romero, 2008

8. Data Driven Decision Making(Using KPIs to Predict Outcomes)

9. dEMO

10. Keys to Success • Data and Functional Alignment. Enterprise data systems with analytic reporting from multiple domains (SIS, Attendance, Assessment, etc). • Leadership. Strong commitment with tangible success metrics are a critical catalyst for change. • Open Doors. Extended success from the collaboration of community, service providers, higher Ed, and other agencies. • Individualized Attention. A holistic student view can be a foundation for enabling student success. • Quality Programming. Intervention and Enrichment services need to be held accountable for a metric of success and assessed.

11. Create a Systematic Response • Identify a leadership team • Create a plan and objectives • Develop needed infrastructure • Identify at risk population • Execute student success plans • Measure and respond to results

12. richardy@microsoft.com