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Alaska Native Student Success Project A Systemic Approach for Dropout Prevention Through A Dropout Early Warning System (DEWS). April 17, 2009 Alaska Dropout Prevention Symposium Anchorage Dr. Terry Cash, Assistant Director National Dropout Prevention Center Clemson University.

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Alaska Native Student Success Project


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    1. Alaska Native Student Success Project A Systemic Approach for Dropout Prevention Through A Dropout Early Warning System (DEWS) April 17, 2009 Alaska Dropout Prevention Symposium Anchorage Dr. Terry Cash, Assistant Director National Dropout Prevention Center Clemson University

    2. Performance Assessment and Review (PAR) and DEWS Using quantitative and qualitative data sources to help develop a comprehensive dropout prevention plan for individual students, clusters of students, or whole-school intervention

    3. A Systemic Approach for Dropout Prevention I II

    4. A Systemic Approach for Dropout Prevention III IV • Qualitative/Contextual • Observations in schools/community • Focus groups and interviews • Surveys—students/teachers/parents • Support from district • Review of policies and practices • Quantitative/Factual • High-risk individual • Student clusters • Grade-level patterns • Low-performing schools • Cohort trends

    5. A Systemic Approach for Dropout Prevention VI V

    6. A Systemic Approach for Dropout Prevention VII

    7. Performance Assessment and Review (PAR) Delivery Workflow Qualitative , Quantitative Data Collection and Analysis Secure Data Monitoring & Revision Predictive Analytics Data Presentation Diagnostic, Assessment & Solutions • Implementation analysis • Impact Indicators • Build and test DEWS model (split cohort) • Incorporate DEWS model into ISM portal • Build Student Profiles • Create Reports • Identify/Recommend interventions, strategies, and best practices • On-site Assessment • Data Mapping • Data Collection • Individual Elements • Longitudinal • Deliver sample of data to build Dropout Early Warning System (DEWS) model • Lead: NDPC • Choice • Lead: OBL • Sypherlink • Choice • Microsoft • Lead: Choice • Sypherlink • OBL • Microsoft • Lead: NDPC • LEA • OBL • Choice • Lead: Sypherlink • OBL • Choice • Microsoft National Dropout Prevention Center (NDPC)

    8. A Systemic Approach for Dropout Prevention What information does DEWS provide? • Identifies Who Is At Risk—Database of dropout predictions reported by school, by grade, and by individual student (Predictive Analytics) • Determines Specific Need—Indicates which Risk Factors carry the heaviest weight • Determines Degree of Risk—Dropout Predictions reported by Risk Index—high, medium, or low • Selects and Implements—Guides in the development of recommendations and interventions • Monitors—Evaluates success of intervention through ongoing data analysis

    9. A Systemic Approach for Dropout Prevention • What are the Risk Factors or Indicators? • School Performance—GPA, Standardized Test Scores • School Behaviors—Suspension, Discipline Referrals • Academic Policies and Practices—Retention, Attendance, • Enrollment • The 2007 report, Dropout Risk Factors and Exemplary Programs: A Technical Report, (Hammond et al, 2007) (NDPC/CIS Study) provides a strong research base for developing appropriate dropout prevention solutions.

    10. A Systemic Approach for Dropout Prevention What is Predictive Analytics—PA? An analysis process that: • Predicts behavior • Uses Risk Factor data • Harvests historical cohort data of previous dropouts to determine the probability of future dropout behavior (split-cohort analysis) • Provides a model specific to local data and demographics • Generates DEWS predictions

    11. Data-Driven Decision Making(Using KPIs to Predict Outcome)

    12. Using DEWS to Develop Targeted Intervention Plans for Individual Students, Clusters of Students, or Whole-School Intervention DEWS provides educators with a user-friendly analysis tool for predicting which students are most at risk for dropout by scoring each risk factor to determine each individual child’s risk index.

    13. DEWS Partners

    14. A Systemic Approach for Dropout Prevention _________________________________ Questions and Discussion Contact Information Dr. Terry Cash tcash@clemson.edu 864-656-2737

    15. Database of Model Programs National Dropout Prevention Center College of Health, Education, and Human Development Clemson University 209 Martin Street Clemson, SC 29631-1555 Telephone: 864-656-2599 email: ndpc@clemson.edu Web site: http://www.dropoutprevention.org

    16. Database of Model Programs The programs chosen were nominated or recommended from various sources, i.e. • The What Works Clearinghouse • “Catching the Dream” Native American Scholarship Fund • Arizona Models of Effective Strategies Application • Journal of Education for Students Placed At Risk • National Dropout Prevention Center • National Center on Secondary Education and Transition • SC At-Risk Student Intervention Implementation Guide • Institute of Education Sciences Practice Guide • Dropout Risk Factors and Exemplary Programs, A Technical Report Prepared by Cathy Hammond

    17. Database of Model Programs The overall rating is derived from four summary dimensions of program effectiveness: • The conceptual framework of the program as it relates to the level of incorporation of the fifteen Effective Strategies for dropout prevention developed by the NDPC • The number of years program in existence • The evaluation design • The empirical evidence demonstrating the prevention or reduction of dropouts or the improvement in graduation rates and/or significant impact on dropout-related risk factors.

    18. Database of Model Programs Exemplary Programs These programs incorporate most of the fifteen effective strategies and have been in existence for a number of years. They were evaluated using an experimental design conducted by an external evaluation team and have strong empirical evidence demonstrating program effectiveness in reducing dropout and/or increasing graduation rates and/or significant impact on dropout-related risk factors.

    19. Database of Model Programs Effective Programs These programs incorporate many of the fifteen effective strategies and have been in existence for a number of years. They were evaluated using a quasi-experimental design conducted by an external evaluation team and have adequate empirical evidence demonstrating program effectiveness in reducing dropout and/or increasing graduation rates and/or significant impact on dropout-related risk factors.

    20. Database of Model Programs Promising Programs These programs incorporate some of the fifteen effective strategies and may be relatively new programs. They were evaluated using a limited evaluation design (single group pre- and post-test) conducted by an internal evaluation team. They have promising empirical evidence demonstrating program effectiveness in reducing dropout and/or increasing graduation rates and/or significant impact on dropout-related risk factors that requires confirmation using more appropriate experimental techniques.

    21. Database of Model Programs Unrated Programs These programs incorporate few of the fifteen effective strategies and/or have dated evaluation results that require additional information before a rating category is determined.

    22. Database of Model Programs There are numerous options to search for a model program. • Search database A-Z • Search by program strategies • Search by descriptors • Search by rating • Search by numerous criteria which may narrow your find An opportunity is also given for new programs to be nominated for the database.

    23. Database of Model Programs The programs are available at: http://ndpc-web.clemson.edu/modelprograms