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National Weather Service Science and Technology Infusion Plan Introduction NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002 Paul Hirschberg Office of Science & Technology Outline Background Vision Keys to S&T Infusion Teamwork Process Architecture Plans Tornado Warnings

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National Weather Service

Science and Technology Infusion Plan

Introduction

NWS S&T Committee

September 17, 2002

Paul Hirschberg

Office of Science & Technology


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Outline

  • Background

  • Vision

  • Keys to S&T Infusion

    • Teamwork

    • Process

    • Architecture

    • Plans


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Tornado Warnings

BackgroundNWS Planning for the Future

  • Successfully Completed Modernization and Restructuring

  • Our products and services have improved

  • Performance is leveling off

  • Users still have needs

  • S&T continues advancing

  • How will NWS respond and continue improving?


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Winter Storms

Vision

>1 Day

Current

13 Hours

VisionVastly Improved Forecasts and Warnings in Our Core Service Areas

Notional Warning Lead Time Improvements

Thunder Storms

Vision

>1 Hour

Flash Floods

Current

16 Minutes

Vision

>2 Hour

Hurricanes

Current

47 Minutes

Tornadoes

Vision

>2 Days

Vision

>30 Minutes

Current

10 Minutes

Current

20 Hours


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Vision In a Seamless Database of Information

  • Observations

  • Analyses

  • Forecasts

  • Uncertainty Information

  • Outlooks, Watches, Warnings

  • Interrogation and mining tools allow users to exploit database for any application or purpose


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Fisheries Impact Forecasts

Air Quality Forecasts

Space Weather Forecasts

Water Quality Forecasts

Coastal Erosion Forecasts

VisionStrengthening Links and Building NewPrograms in Non-Traditional Service Areas


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Air Quality Forecasts

IFPS

Current Radar

Vision What It Will Take to Get There

  • Know and Anticipate Customer Needs.

  • Evolve Operational Concepts

  • Train Workforce

  • Infuse Proven Science and Technology

Upgraded Radar


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S&T InfusionObjective

Improve performancethrough a disciplined incorporation of new ideas, procedures, and capabilities

(Dorman Report, 1999)


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Bridging the Valley of Death

Teams - Process - Architecture - Plans

Operations

R & D

Improved Tech Insertion

S&T Infusion

Key Elements

  • Define Roles and Responsibilities for Teamwork

    • To effect transition

  • Define Process

    • To establish thread to operations early

  • Promote Compatible Architecture - Prediction Systems and Testbeds

    • To streamline transition

  • Plan - Roadmaps leading Program, Budget and Execution Plans

    • To set direction and add discipline


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Teamwork

S&T Transition Roles and Responsibilities

NWS:

  • Identifies operational S&T shortfalls

  • Evaluates S&T opportunities

  • Conducts applied R&D – operational applications

  • Inserts proven new S&T into operations

  • Leads planning and budgeting for S&T insertion into operations


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Teamwork

S&T Transition Roles and Responsibilities

NWS S&T Partners:

  • Develop/find R&D

  • Identify opportunities, make data/info available early

  • Respond to NWS operational shortfalls

  • Collaborate/assist in utilization/insertion of S&T including research data into operations

  • Assist as consultant in maintenance of operational capability

  • Lead planning and budgeting for R&D


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R&D

Research

Demonstration

Operational

Development

Deployment

Process

  • Establish coordinated “thread” to operations early – including envisioned applications

    • Develop joint plans – R&D to Operations

      • Start at operations, work backwards and iterate

      • Coordinate investment strategies upfront

      • Continuously review and update

  • Execution

    • Scheduled and frequent communication and coordination

      • Design and readiness reviews

    • Well understood decision points and criteria


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USWRP

Aviation

Time

Water Management

NWS Field

Drought

Preparedness

Marine Safety

THORpex

Emergency Management

Universities

SOOs/DOOs

Field Science

Opportunities Push

Process

Requirements Pull

Reqirements

Validation

Solution

Selection

Solution

Development

Deployment

R&D

Required?

Solution

Analysis

User

Needs

YES

NO

YES

Potential

NWS

Use?

Positive

R&D

Evalation?

Positive

Demo

Evaluation?

Operational

Requirement?

NWS

Endorsed

R&D

NWS

Endorsed

Demo

S&T

Idea


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ProcessContinuously Review and Update

Accelerate

Transition

Required

Capability

For

Operations

Performance

Projected

Progress

Agreed Upon

Boundaries

Stop

Project

2002

2003

2004

2005

2008

Time

2007

2006

Baseline


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Architecture

Commonality/Compatibility is Key

  • Prediction systems

    • Vision: Compatible research and operational models

  • Testbeds

    • Vision: Develop and test new S&T in laboratory settings

      - When proven: Timely, cost-effective transition to operations


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ArchitecturePrediction Systems

  • Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model

    • State-of-the-science, common infrastructure system

    • Supporting advanced regional- to local-scale operational weather forecasting applications and research

    • More effective insertion of research into operations and coordination of national operational mission capabilities.

    • Partners: NOAA, NCAR, USAF, USN, FAA

  • Effort extensible to global and climate systems


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Research

Operations

Test

ArchitectureTestbeds

  • Compatible Architecture to support End-to-End R-O Process

  • Provide Research Community “Real” Operational Environment

  • Allow Demonstration, Validation, etc. of New Science Before Major Investment

  • Allow Research on Difficult Operational Problems

  • Provide training opportunities for current and future scientists

  • Improved operational NWP

  • More Timely Infusion of New S&T

  • Reduced Cost


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Distributed Testbed System Vision

Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation2003 AO planned

Satellite

DA

Joint Hurricane Testbed

8 funded projects

Universities,

Labs, Other

Hurricanes

Climate

Universities,

Labs, Other

Planned

NWS

Observations

NWP

Severe

Weather

Coastal

Marine

Aviation

Short-term Prediction Research and Transition

Focused on 0-24 h W&F Problems


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Plan

Three Timeframes

  • NWS Today:

    • Continuous refreshment of the Modernized NWS

    • Requirements driven - More service pull than science push

  • NWS Next:

    • What NWS will evolve to by 2012

  • NWS After Next:

    • NWS of 20 or more years from now

    • S&T Opportunities driven - More push than pull

      (from Dorman Report, 99)


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Plan Advances Must Occur Along Forecast Process

Observe

Produce Products &

Provide Services

Disseminate

& Provide Information Access

Analyze and Predict


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PlanAdvances Must be Linked to Results and Worth the Cost

Results

S&T Advances

  • Observations

  • Numerical Prediction

  • Forecast Applications

  • IT Architecture

  • Dissemination/Access

Hurricane Track, Intensity and Precipitation Forecasts

Tornado and Flash Flood Forecasts

Aviation, Fire, and Marine Forecasts

Flood and River Predictions

Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Energy, Agriculture, Etc.


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Plan

Objectives

  • Performance Measure Based

  • “End-to-End”

    • Research to operations

    • Observations to delivering information to users

  • Integrated across service areas

  • Reflect reasonable budget expectations


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Next Portion of STIP

Cross-Cutting

  • Observations

  • DA/Numerical Prediction

  • Forecast Applications

  • IT Architecture

  • Dissemination/Data Access

Service/Science

  • Aviation Weather

  • Marine/Coastal

    • Tropical and Extratropical

  • Public Weather

    • Severe Storms, Winter Wx., Fire Wx.

  • Hydrology

    • QPE, QPF, Flooding

  • Climate Analysis and Prediction

  • Air Quality


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RoadmapsFocused on NWS Today and Next whileKeeping an Eye on After Next

Next

Increasing Performance

Today

2020

2003

2007

2012

Time


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Briefing Outlines

  • Team Composition

  • Vision / Benefits

  • Goals / Targets

  • Key Information Gaps

  • Key Solutions

  • Outstanding R & D Needs

  • Summary


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