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National Weather Service Science and Technology Infusion Plan Introduction NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002 Paul Hirschberg Office of Science & Technology Outline Background Vision Keys to S&T Infusion Teamwork Process Architecture Plans Tornado Warnings

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

National Weather Service

Science and Technology Infusion Plan

Introduction

NWS S&T Committee

September 17, 2002

Paul Hirschberg

Office of Science & Technology

outline
Outline
  • Background
  • Vision
  • Keys to S&T Infusion
    • Teamwork
    • Process
    • Architecture
    • Plans
background nws planning for the future

Tornado Warnings

BackgroundNWS Planning for the Future
  • Successfully Completed Modernization and Restructuring
  • Our products and services have improved
  • Performance is leveling off
  • Users still have needs
  • S&T continues advancing
  • How will NWS respond and continue improving?
vision vastly improved forecasts and warnings in our core service areas

Winter Storms

Vision

>1 Day

Current

13 Hours

VisionVastly Improved Forecasts and Warnings in Our Core Service Areas

Notional Warning Lead Time Improvements

Thunder Storms

Vision

>1 Hour

Flash Floods

Current

16 Minutes

Vision

>2 Hour

Hurricanes

Current

47 Minutes

Tornadoes

Vision

>2 Days

Vision

>30 Minutes

Current

10 Minutes

Current

20 Hours

vision in a seamless database of information
Vision In a Seamless Database of Information
  • Observations
  • Analyses
  • Forecasts
  • Uncertainty Information
  • Outlooks, Watches, Warnings
  • Interrogation and mining tools allow users to exploit database for any application or purpose
vision strengthening links and building new programs in non traditional service areas

Fisheries Impact Forecasts

Air Quality Forecasts

Space Weather Forecasts

Water Quality Forecasts

Coastal Erosion Forecasts

VisionStrengthening Links and Building NewPrograms in Non-Traditional Service Areas
vision what it will take to get there

Air Quality Forecasts

IFPS

Current Radar

Vision What It Will Take to Get There
  • Know and Anticipate Customer Needs.
  • Evolve Operational Concepts
  • Train Workforce
  • Infuse Proven Science and Technology

Upgraded Radar

s t infusion objective
S&T InfusionObjective

Improve performancethrough a disciplined incorporation of new ideas, procedures, and capabilities

(Dorman Report, 1999)

s t infusion

Bridging the Valley of Death

Teams - Process - Architecture - Plans

Operations

R & D

Improved Tech Insertion

S&T Infusion

Key Elements

  • Define Roles and Responsibilities for Teamwork
    • To effect transition
  • Define Process
    • To establish thread to operations early
  • Promote Compatible Architecture - Prediction Systems and Testbeds
    • To streamline transition
  • Plan - Roadmaps leading Program, Budget and Execution Plans
    • To set direction and add discipline
teamwork
Teamwork

S&T Transition Roles and Responsibilities

NWS:

  • Identifies operational S&T shortfalls
  • Evaluates S&T opportunities
  • Conducts applied R&D – operational applications
  • Inserts proven new S&T into operations
  • Leads planning and budgeting for S&T insertion into operations
teamwork11
Teamwork

S&T Transition Roles and Responsibilities

NWS S&T Partners:

  • Develop/find R&D
  • Identify opportunities, make data/info available early
  • Respond to NWS operational shortfalls
  • Collaborate/assist in utilization/insertion of S&T including research data into operations
  • Assist as consultant in maintenance of operational capability
  • Lead planning and budgeting for R&D
process

R&D

Research

Demonstration

Operational

Development

Deployment

Process
  • Establish coordinated “thread” to operations early – including envisioned applications
    • Develop joint plans – R&D to Operations
      • Start at operations, work backwards and iterate
      • Coordinate investment strategies upfront
      • Continuously review and update
  • Execution
    • Scheduled and frequent communication and coordination
      • Design and readiness reviews
    • Well understood decision points and criteria
process13

USWRP

Aviation

Time

Water Management

NWS Field

Drought

Preparedness

Marine Safety

THORpex

Emergency Management

Universities

SOOs/DOOs

Field Science

Opportunities Push

Process

Requirements Pull

Reqirements

Validation

Solution

Selection

Solution

Development

Deployment

R&D

Required?

Solution

Analysis

User

Needs

YES

NO

YES

Potential

NWS

Use?

Positive

R&D

Evalation?

Positive

Demo

Evaluation?

Operational

Requirement?

NWS

Endorsed

R&D

NWS

Endorsed

Demo

S&T

Idea

process continuously review and update
ProcessContinuously Review and Update

Accelerate

Transition

Required

Capability

For

Operations

Performance

Projected

Progress

Agreed Upon

Boundaries

Stop

Project

2002

2003

2004

2005

2008

Time

2007

2006

Baseline

architecture
Architecture

Commonality/Compatibility is Key

  • Prediction systems
    • Vision: Compatible research and operational models
  • Testbeds
    • Vision: Develop and test new S&T in laboratory settings

- When proven: Timely, cost-effective transition to operations

slide16

ArchitecturePrediction Systems

  • Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model
    • State-of-the-science, common infrastructure system
    • Supporting advanced regional- to local-scale operational weather forecasting applications and research
    • More effective insertion of research into operations and coordination of national operational mission capabilities.
    • Partners: NOAA, NCAR, USAF, USN, FAA
  • Effort extensible to global and climate systems
architecture testbeds

Research

Operations

Test

ArchitectureTestbeds
  • Compatible Architecture to support End-to-End R-O Process
  • Provide Research Community “Real” Operational Environment
  • Allow Demonstration, Validation, etc. of New Science Before Major Investment
  • Allow Research on Difficult Operational Problems
  • Provide training opportunities for current and future scientists
  • Improved operational NWP
  • More Timely Infusion of New S&T
  • Reduced Cost
distributed testbed system vision
Distributed Testbed System Vision

Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation2003 AO planned

Satellite

DA

Joint Hurricane Testbed

8 funded projects

Universities,

Labs, Other

Hurricanes

Climate

Universities,

Labs, Other

Planned

NWS

Observations

NWP

Severe

Weather

Coastal

Marine

Aviation

Short-term Prediction Research and Transition

Focused on 0-24 h W&F Problems

slide19
Plan

Three Timeframes

  • NWS Today:
    • Continuous refreshment of the Modernized NWS
    • Requirements driven - More service pull than science push
  • NWS Next:
    • What NWS will evolve to by 2012
  • NWS After Next:
    • NWS of 20 or more years from now
    • S&T Opportunities driven - More push than pull

(from Dorman Report, 99)

plan advances must occur along forecast process
Plan Advances Must Occur Along Forecast Process

Observe

Produce Products &

Provide Services

Disseminate

& Provide Information Access

Analyze and Predict

plan advances must be linked to results and worth the cost
PlanAdvances Must be Linked to Results and Worth the Cost

Results

S&T Advances

  • Observations
  • Numerical Prediction
  • Forecast Applications
  • IT Architecture
  • Dissemination/Access

Hurricane Track, Intensity and Precipitation Forecasts

Tornado and Flash Flood Forecasts

Aviation, Fire, and Marine Forecasts

Flood and River Predictions

Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Energy, Agriculture, Etc.

slide22
Plan

Objectives

  • Performance Measure Based
  • “End-to-End”
    • Research to operations
    • Observations to delivering information to users
  • Integrated across service areas
  • Reflect reasonable budget expectations
next portion of stip
Next Portion of STIP

Cross-Cutting

  • Observations
  • DA/Numerical Prediction
  • Forecast Applications
  • IT Architecture
  • Dissemination/Data Access

Service/Science

  • Aviation Weather
  • Marine/Coastal
    • Tropical and Extratropical
  • Public Weather
    • Severe Storms, Winter Wx., Fire Wx.
  • Hydrology
    • QPE, QPF, Flooding
  • Climate Analysis and Prediction
  • Air Quality
roadmaps focused on nws today and next while keeping an eye on after next
RoadmapsFocused on NWS Today and Next whileKeeping an Eye on After Next

Next

Increasing Performance

Today

2020

2003

2007

2012

Time

briefing outlines
Briefing Outlines
  • Team Composition
  • Vision / Benefits
  • Goals / Targets
  • Key Information Gaps
  • Key Solutions
  • Outstanding R & D Needs
  • Summary