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MILITARY DECISION MAKING PROCESS. Military Decision Making Process. MISSION RECEIVED. CDR ACTIONS. STAFF ACTIONS. INFO TO CDR. INFO TO STAFF. MSN ANALYSIS RESTATED MSN CDR’S GUIDANCE. MISSION ANALYSIS PROPOSED RESTATED MSN. CDR’S EST. STAFF EST. COA DEVELOPMENT/ ANALYSIS.

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slide2

Military Decision Making Process

MISSION RECEIVED

CDR ACTIONS

STAFF ACTIONS

INFO TO CDR

INFO TO STAFF

MSN ANALYSIS RESTATED MSN CDR’S GUIDANCE

MISSION ANALYSIS PROPOSED RESTATED MSN

CDR’S

EST

STAFF

EST

COA DEVELOPMENT/ ANALYSIS

COA DEVELOPMENT

COA ANALYSIS, COMPARISON, RECOMMENDATION

COA COMPARISON AND DECISION

PREP PLAN/ ORDER/FRAGO

PLAN/ORDER/ FRAGO APPROVAL

ISSUE PLAN/ ORDER/FRAGO

MSN REC’D BY SUB UNITS

EXECUTION

slide3

Military Decision Making Process

RECEIPT OF MISSION

WARNING ORDER

MISSION ANALYSIS

WARNING ORDER

COA DEVELOPMENT

COA ANALYSIS

COA COMPARISON

COA APPROVAL

WARNING ORDER

ORDERS PRODUCTION

REHEARSAL

EXECUTION & ASSESSMENT

FM 101-5 pg 5-2

slide4

Military Decision Making Process

WARNING ORDER #__

References:

1. SITUATION

a. Enemy forces.

b. Friendly forces.

(1) Mission

(2) Commander’s Intent

c. Attachments and detachments.

2. MISSION

3. EXECUTION

Intent (when available).

a. Concept of operation (when available). Assembly area locations (If applicable, when available).

b. Tasks to maneuver units (when available).

(1) Reconnaissance.

(2) Surveillance

(2) Security

c. Tasks to combat support units (when available).

d. Coordinating instructions.

(1) Earliest movement time and degree of notice.

(2) Orders group meeting (attendees, location, and time) (when applicable).

4. SERVICE SUPPORT

a. Special equipment.

b. Transportation.

5. COMMAND AND SIGNAL

ACKNOWLEDGE:

NAME (Commander’s last name)

RANK (Commander’s rank)

OFFICIAL:

ANNEXES:

DISTRIBUTION:

Copy __ of __ Copies

Issuing headquarters

Place of issue

Date-time group of signature

Message reference no.

FM 101-5 pgs H-27/28

slide5

Military Decision Making Process

7 Steps

  • Receipt of mission
  • Mission analysis
  • Course of action development
  • Course of action analysis
  • Course of action comparison
  • Course of action approval
  • Orders production

FM 101-5 pg 5-3

slide6

Military Decision Making Process Step 1

Input

Output

Receipt of Mission

Mission of Higher

Cdr’s Initial Guidance

- Initial Assessment

- Update Staff Estimates

- Prepare for Mission Analysis

Warning Order 1

FM 101-5 pgs 5-3, 5-4

slide7

Military Decision Making Process Step 2

Output

Input

Initial IPB Products

Mission

Mission Analysis

Restated Mission

Staff Estimates

- Analysis of Higher Msn/Intent

- Identify Specified / Implied Tasks /

Essential Tasks

- Review Task Org / Assets

- Determine Restrictions / Constraints

- Assess Risk

- Identify Critical Facts / Assumptions

Cdr’s Intent / Guidance

Facts & Assumptions

Warning Order 2

Staff Products

Battlefield Framework

Preliminary Movement

FM 102-5 pgs 5-4, 5-5

slide8

Definition of

Commander’s Intent

The commander’s intent is a clear, concise statement of what the force must do to succeed with respect to the enemy and the terrain, and the desired end state. It provides the link between the mission and the concept of operations by stating the key tasks that, along with the mission, are the basis for subordinates to exercise initiative when unanticipated opportunities arise or when the original concept of operations no longer applies. Intent is normally expressed in four or five sentences and is mandatory for all orders. The mission and the commander’s intent must be understood two echelons down.

FM 101-5 pg 5-9

intent statement
Intent Statement

Commander’s intent statement should state the following:

  • Key tasks
  • End state

FM 101-5 pg 5-9

slide10

Key Tasks For

Commander’s Intent

  • Tasks that must be performed, or conditions that must be met, to achieve stated purpose of the operation
  • Not tied to specific course of action, but fundamental to the force’s success
  • Subordinates use these tasks to keep their efforts supporting the commander’s intent
  • Examples
    • Tempo
    • Duration
    • Terrain that must be controlled
    • Effect on the enemy

FM 101-5 pg 5-9

slide11

Example Commander’s Intent

Mission

At 112130JUL97, 1 CAV DIV attacks in zone to PL VIRGINIA to defeat the 61 BDE (MTZD) and establish a covering force NLT 120600JUL97 from PL ALABAMA to PL MAINE to protect CORPS assembly areas. On order, 1 CAV DIV attacks in zone to PL FLORIDA to defeat the remaining enemy forces. On order, defends in sector from PL ILLINOIS to PL VIRGINIA to defeat enemy attacks across the international border.

Commander's Intent

I want to rapidly defeat the remaining enemy forces in zone to PL ALABAMA to establish a covering force. The covering force will protect the division until we are prepared for combat and facilitate the forward passage of the heavy brigades, allowing the heavy brigades to rapidly defeat enemy forces in zone to PL FLORIDA, and posture the division to destroy any enemy counterattacks across the international border. End state is the international border restored and the division defending in sector along PL FLORIDA prepared to defeat any enemy attacks across the international border.

slide12

Military Decision Making Process

13 Elements of commander’s guidance

  • Specify COAs, friendly & enemy, and the priority for addressing them
  • The CCIR
  • Reconnaissance guidance
  • Risk guidance
  • Deception guidance
  • Fire support guidance
  • Mobility & countermobility guidance
  • Security measures to be implemented
  • Additional specific priorities for CS and CSS
  • Other information the Cdr wants the staff to consider
  • The time plan
  • Type of order to issue
  • Type of rehearsal to conduct

FM 101-5 pg 5-10

commander s critical information requirements ccir
Commander’s Critical Information Requirements(CCIR)
  • Supports the commander’s battlefield visualization
  • Identifies critical decisions
  • Assists in determining or validating COAs
  • Helps filter information available to the commander
  • Focuses the efforts of subordinates and staff
  • Assists in the allocation of resources
  • Assists staff officers in making recommendations
  • 10 or less items of information
  • Directly affects the success or failure of the mission

FM 101-5 pg 5-7

slide14

Commander’s Critical Information Requirements(CCIR)

  • PIR - Information about the enemy. Example: Are the 14 TMD and 13 ID DAGs located vicinity NAI 17 (CH 4535) and NAI 14 (CH3736) respectively? LTIOV: 252300JUL97
  • EEFI - Information needed to protect friendly forces from the enemy’s information-gathering systems. Example: Location of brigade command posts.
  • FFIR - Information about the capabilities of own or adjacent units. Example: First contact with enemy.
  • Combat power below designated level.

FM 101-5 pg 5-8

slide15

NCOs In The Military Decision Making Process

PLANNING PROCESS

COMMANDER

STAFF OFFICERS

STAFF NCOs

RTOs/CLERKS

  • MISSION ANALYSIS
  • Prepare charts for mission analysis
  • Prepare terrain sketches
  • Update and post unit reports/status
  • Prepare TOC for planning process
  • Conduct mission analysis
  • Serve as a recorder during process
  • Brief commander and staff

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

  • COMMANDER’S GUIDANCE
  • Assist Cdr in developing guidance
  • Issue guidance
  • Record/post Cdr’s guidance

X

X

X

X

X

X

  • COA DEVELOPMENT
  • Prepare charts
  • Sketch COAs
  • Develop COAs

X

X

X

X

X

FM 101-5 pg K-2

slide16

NCOs In The Military Decision Making Process

(continued)

PLANNING PROCESS

COMMANDER

STAFF OFFICERS

STAFF NCOs

RTOs/CLERKS

  • COA ANALYSIS
  • Collect and prepare tools/charts
  • Serve as a war-game recorder
  • Conduct war-game session

X

X

X

X

X

X

  • DECISION
  • Make recommendation to Cdr
  • Decide
  • Record/post Cdr’s guidance

X

X

X

X

X

X

  • ORDERS PREP
  • Write annexes
  • Consolidate annexes
  • Type order
  • Reproduce orders/graphics
  • Review order
  • Approve order

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

FM 101-5 pg K-2

slide18

Military Decision Making Process Step 3

Input

Output

Restated Mission

COA Stmts / Sketches

Course of Action Development

Cdr's Guidance / Intent

- Analyze Relative Combat Power

- Generate Options

- Array Initial Forces

- Develop the Scheme of Maneuver

- Assign Headquarters

- Prepare COA Statements / Sketches

Staff Estimates

Enemy COAs

FM 101-5 pgs 5-4, 5-11

slide19

Course of Action Development Criteria

  • Suitability
  • Feasibility
  • Acceptability
  • Distinguishability
  • Completeness

FM 101-5 pg 5-11

slide20

57

03

COA #1

CFL 52 DIV

CFL 52 DIV

LOA

(PL WISCONSIN)

LOA

(PL WISCONSIN)

200100 MAY 97

200100 MAY 97

37

OBJ

SABER

42

TONG’DUCH

O/O FEBA

(PL FLORIDA)

O/O FEBA

(PL FLORIDA)

OBJ KNIFE

OBJ

BAYONET

PL IOWA

PL IOWA

AA

SCABBARD

PL NEBRASKA

PL NEBRASKA

X

52 ID X MNC

X

3 X 1

LD/LC

(PL NEVADA)

LD/LC

(PL NEVADA)

Course of Action: BDE attacks frontally with two task forces abreast at 200630 May 97 with a mech heavy task force conducting

the main attack in zone in the east to seize OBJ BAYONET to defeat an enemy battalion. Priority of indirect fires initially to

counterbattery then neutralization of enemy forces at the point of attack. Smoke will be used to isolate enemy positions at the

point of attack. A 20 minute prep on the OBJ’s will be fired to suppress enemy forces. An infantry battalion conducts a supporting

attack in zone in the west to seize OBJ KNIFE to defeat an enemy battalion. A tank heavy task force follows the mech heavy task

force and assumes the main effort to defeat the second echelon battalion vicinity OBJ SABER. Lead battalions provide frontal and

flank security. A mech team, brigade reserve, follows the tank heavy task force prepared to reinforce the main effort or respond to

threats to LOC. DS, R artillery and Q36 radar will initially position forward along PL NEVADA. One battery from the DS and one

battery from the R battalion will initially move behind the lead Co/Tm’s in the right and left zone, respectively. The Q36 radar will

move with the mech heavy TF. BDE Main CP will position vic PL NEVADA prior to attack. TAC CP will follow mech heavy TF.

Risk is accepted by having a small reserve in order to mass combat power on the objective.

slide21

X

X

57

03

COA #1

CFL 52 DIV

CFL 52 DIV

LOA

(PL WISCONSIN)

LOA

(PL WISCONSIN)

O/O

O/O

37

42

TONG’DUCH

FEBA

(PL FLORIDA)

FEBA

(PL FLORIDA)

TAC

PL IOWA

PL IOWA

EA

DALLAS

EA

AUSTIN

MAIN

AA

SCABBARD

PL NEBRASKA

PL NEBRASKA

X

52 ID X MNC

X

AA

HILT

3 X 1

PL NEVADA

PL NEVADA

Course of Action: On order, BDE defends from PL FLORIDA to PL NEVADA with two task forces abreast to defeat the advance

guard and lead battalions; a task force in depth, the defeat mechanism, will counter attack to defeat the enemy. Forward battalions

establish screen from PL WISCONSIN to PL FLORIDA. The tank heavy task force establishes a combat outpost in TONG’DUCH

to engage enemy reconnaissance and force deployment of the Advanced Guard Battalion. Indirect fires neutralize Advance Guard in

security zone. A tank heavy task force, main effort, in the east defends in sector from PL FLORIDA to PL IOWA to defeat the advance

guard and first echelon battalion. An infantry battalion in the west defends in sector from PL FLORIDA to PL IOWA to defeat a first

echelon battalion. A mech heavy task force occupies AA SCABBARD; on order main effort counterattacks into EA DALLAS or

EA AUSTIN to defeat the second echelon battalion. Priority of fires to main effort battalion. Use blocking obstacles to shape EA DALLAS

or EA AUSTIN once enemy main effort is identified, to support mech heavy TF’s CATK. A mech team, brigade reserve, occupies

AA HILT, prepared to defeat penetrations of PL NEBRASKA or respond to level II rear area threats. DS and R artillery with Q36 radar

positioned forward between PL FLORIDA and PL IOWA. Risk is accepted by having a small reserve in order to defeat penetrations of

PL NEBRASKA.

slide22

57

03

COA #1

CFL 52 DIV

CFL 52 DIV

LOA

(PL WISCONSIN)

LOA

(PL WISCONSIN)

200100 MAY 97

200100 MAY 97

37

OBJ

SABER

42

TONG’DUCH

O/O FEBA

(PL FLORIDA)

O/O FEBA

(PL FLORIDA)

OBJ KNIFE

OBJ

BAYONET

PL IOWA

PL IOWA

AA

SCABBARD

PL NEBRASKA

PL NEBRASKA

X

52 ID X MNC

X

3 X 1

LD/LC

(PL NEVADA)

LD/LC

(PL NEVADA)

Course of Action: BDE attacks frontally with two task forces abreast at 200630 May 97 with a mech heavy task force conducting

the main attack in zone in the east to seize OBJ BAYONET to defeat an enemy battalion. Priority of indirect fires initially to

counterbattery then neutralization of enemy forces at the point of attack. Smoke will be used to isolate enemy positions at the

point of attack. A 20 minute prep on the OBJ’s will be fired to suppress enemy forces. An infantry battalion conducts a supporting

attack in zone in the west to seize OBJ KNIFE to defeat an enemy battalion. A tank heavy task force follows the mech heavy task

force and assumes the main effort to defeat the second echelon battalion vicinity OBJ SABER. Lead battalions provide frontal and

flank security. A mech team, brigade reserve, follows the tank heavy task force prepared to reinforce the main effort or respond to

threats to LOC. DS, R artillery and Q36 radar will initially position forward along PL NEVADA. One battery from the DS and one

battery from the R battalion will initially move behind the lead Co/Tm’s in the right and left zone, respectively. The Q36 radar will

move with the mech heavy TF. BDE Main CP will position vic PL NEVADA prior to attack. TAC CP will follow mech heavy TF.

Risk is accepted by having a small reserve in order to mass combat power on the objective.

slide24

Military Decision Making Process Step 4

Input

Output

Enemy COA

Course of Action Analysis

War Game Results

COA Stmts / Sketches

- Conduct War Game

Task Organization

Staff COA

Mission to Subordinates

CCIR

FM 101-5 pgs 5-4, 5-16

slide25

Course of Action Analysis

War Gaming Rules

  • Remain unbiased
  • List advantages and disadvantages (as found)
  • Continually assess COA feasibility, acceptability, and suitability
  • Avoid drawing premature conclusions and gathering facts to support such conclusions
  • Compare COAs during comparison process: Not during war game

FM 101-5 pg 5-16

slide26

Course of Action Analysis War Gaming Steps

  • Gather the tools
  • List all friendly forces
  • List assumptions
  • List known critical events and decision points
  • Determine evaluation criteria
  • Select the war game method (avenue/belt/box)
  • Select method to record and display results (synch matrix or sketch note)
  • War game the battle and assess the results

FM 101-5 pg 5-17

slide27

Course of Action Analysis

War Game Results 1 OF 3

  • Modified COA
  • Modified location and timing of the decisive point
  • Identification of key terrain
  • Refinement of enemy event template & matrix
  • Refinement of task organization
  • Identification of subordinate unit’s tasks
  • Allocation of combat, CS and CSS assets to subordinates
  • The synchronization matrix and decision support template
  • Estimate duration of each critical event / entire operation
  • Projection of enemy force destruction
  • Identification of location and commitment of reserve

FM 101-5 pgs 5-23, 5-24

slide28

Course of Action Analysis

War Game Results 2 OF 3

  • Identify likely times and areas for enemy use of WMD and friendly NBC requirements
  • Most dangerous enemy COA
  • Location of commander and CPs
  • Identify additional critical events
  • Identify additional CS and CSS requirements
  • Requirements for deception and surprise
  • Refined C2 requirements
  • Finalize CCIR and IR with LTIOV
  • Finalize R&S plan
  • Refined CCIR and incorporate into R&S plan and graphics

FM 101-5 pgs 5-23, 5-24

slide29

Course of Action Analysis

War Game Results 3 OF 3

  • Develop FS, Engr, AD, IO, CSS plans and graphics
  • Identify / confirm DPs / NAIs, TAIs
  • Timing of force concentration & initiation of the attack or counterattack
  • Develop the intel collection and dissemination plan
  • Determine movement times and tables
  • Identify, analyze, and evaluate strengths and weaknesses of the COA
  • Integrate targeting process
  • Synchronize smoke
  • Identify additional risks, develop control measures

FM 101-5 pgs 5-23, 5-24

slide30

Military Decision Making Process Step 5

Output

Input

Course of Action Comparison

War Game Results

Decision Matrix

Establish Criteria

- Assess Risk

- Compare COAs

- Recommendation

FM 101-5 pgs 5-4, 5-24

slide31

Course of Action Comparison

  • Select comparison method
  • Determine decision criteria
  • Assign weighting values to criteria
  • Make recommendation

FM 101-5 pg 5-24

slide33

“If the band played a piece first with the

piccolo then with the brass horn, then with the

clarinet, and then with the trumpet, there

would be a hell of a lot of noise but no music.

To get harmony in the music, each instrument

must support the others, to get harmony in

battle, each weapon must support the others.

Team play wins.”

General George S. Patton

slide34

Orders

“There is a type of staff officer who seems to think that it is more important to draft immaculate orders than to get out a reasonably well-worded order in time for action to be taken before the situation changes or the opportunity passes.”

BH Liddell Hart

Thoughts on War

1933

slide35

Military Decision Making Process Step 6

Output

Input

Approved COA

Course of Action Approval

Decision Matrix

Refined Cdr’s Intent

- Select COA

- Assess Risk

- Specify Type of Order

Specified Type of Order /

Rehearsal

High Pay-Off Target List

Warning Order 3

FM 101-5 pgs 5-4, 5-26

slide36

OPORD / OPLAN Development Guidelines / Characteristics 1 OF 2

  • Address critical facts and assumptions
  • Authoritative expression
  • Positive expression
  • Avoiding unqualified directives
  • Balance
  • Simplicity
  • Be concise
  • Clarity
  • Completeness

FM 101-5 pgs H-3, H-4

slide37

OPORD / OPLAN Development Guidelines / Characteristics 2 OF 2

  • Coordination
  • Flexibility
  • Clear, concise mission and intent statements
  • Centralized planning
  • Decentralized execution
  • Use of existing resources
  • Timeliness

FM 101-5 pgs H-3, H-4

slide38

Military Decision Making Process Step 7

Input

Output

Orders Production

OPORD / OPLAN

Approved COA

- Translate into Plan / Order

- Incorporate Branches and Sequels

- Establish Control Measures

- Synchronize Plan / Order

FM 101-5 pgs 5-4, 5-26

slide39

NCOs In TOC OPS

TOC FUNCTION

XO

BATTLE CPT

STAFF NCOs

RTOs/CLERKS

  • RECEIVE INFORMATION
  • Monitor situation
  • Receive messages/reports
  • Maintain journal
  • Update post unit locations
  • Update status boards/charts

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

  • DISTRIBUTE INFORMATION
  • Submit reports
  • Publish orders
  • Pass messages/reports within TOCs

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

  • ANALYZE INFORMATION
  • Review in/out going reports/orders
  • Conduct predictive analysis
  • Identify CCIR
  • Conduct TDMP
    • Serve as recorders
    • Develop terrain Sketches
    • prepare charts and overlays

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS TO CDR

X

INTEGRATE/SYNCH RESOURCES

X

Reference: CALL Newsletter 95-12, DEC 95, Tactical Decision Making: Abbreviated Planning

nco use
NCO Use
  • NCOs involvement
  • Enforce duties and responsibilities
  • Battlestaff trained NCOs
slide41

Military Decision Making Process

Rehearsal

- 5 Types of Rehearsals

- Confirmation Brief

- Backbrief

- Combined Arms Rehearsal

- Support Rehearsal

- Battle Drill or SOP Rehearsal

FM 101-5 pgs 5-2, G-1/2

slide42

Military Decision Making Process

Execution & Assessment

FM 101-5 pg 5-2