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Southwest/West Central Service Cooperative Annual Board Conference: Minnesota’s Future. Jay Kiedrowski, Senior Fellow Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs July 16, 2009. Introduction. Trends: Demographics, Social, & Economic MN Department of Management and Budget

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southwest west central service cooperative annual board conference minnesota s future

Southwest/West Central Service Cooperative Annual Board Conference:Minnesota’s Future

Jay Kiedrowski, Senior Fellow

Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs

July 16, 2009

introduction
Introduction
  • Trends: Demographics, Social, & Economic

MN Department of Management and Budget

MN Trends Budget Study Commission

Wilder Foundation Twin Cities Compass

Other

  • Implications
  • Discussion
slide10

Economic

Total Taxes

Per Capita Personal Income

economics2
Economics

MN State Budget

2010-2011

(in billions)

Current Revenue

$30.6

Ongoing Spending

37.0

Structural Gap

$(6.4)

One-time Stimulus

1.8

Reported Gap

$(4.6)

Real Shortfall

(21)%

economics3
Economics

The Budget Stalemate

economics6
Economics

MN State Budget

2010-2011

(in billions)

Current Revenue

$30.6

Ongoing Spending

37.0

Structural Gap

$(6.4)

One-time Stimulus

1.8

Reported Gap

$(4.6)

Real Shortfall

(21)%

economics7
Economics

The Budget Stalemate

economics11
Economics

* Including Inflation & Mild Recovery

implications
Implications
  • A Similar Minnesota in the Future

Healthy Environment

Less Crime

Reduced Traffic Fatalities

Highly Educated

High Voter Turnout

Rich Cultural Arts

Supportive Nonprofits

implications1
Implications
  • A Different Minnesota in the Future

Older, More Diverse

Fewer Wage Earners Proportionately

Less Well Educated

Higher Tuition for College

More Unemployment

Greater Income Disparity

Housing Less Attainable

More Congestion

implications2
Implications
  • Different State Finances in the Future

More Revenue Volatility

Need Larger Fund Balance

Revenues Unlikely to Rebound Fully

A Revenue-Expense Imbalance

Need Tax Increase and Reform

Need Expenditure Decrease and Reform

Healthcare Rethinking Required

Property Tax Relief Changes