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Inventories, Focal Species, & Crayons: Evaluating Conservation Planning Tools

Inventories, Focal Species, & Crayons: Evaluating Conservation Planning Tools. George R. Hess Matthew J. Rubino Frank H. Koch Katherine A. Eschelbach C. Ashton Drew Jorie M. Favreau North Carolina State University Raleigh, North Carolina 27695-8002 USA. The Challenge.

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Inventories, Focal Species, & Crayons: Evaluating Conservation Planning Tools

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  1. Inventories, Focal Species, & Crayons: Evaluating Conservation Planning Tools George R. Hess Matthew J. Rubino Frank H. Koch Katherine A. Eschelbach C. Ashton Drew Jorie M. Favreau North Carolina State University Raleigh, North Carolina 27695-8002 USA

  2. The Challenge People transform landscapes faster than research data can be collected Planners need to act with incomplete data Can we create shortcuts that correctly identify land for protection?

  3. Some Possible Approaches

  4. Some Possible Approaches

  5. Some Possible Approaches

  6. Some Possible Approaches

  7. Our Research Question Can simple approaches identify land for protection as effectively as complex approaches?

  8. Our Research Question Can simple approaches identify land for protection as effectively as complex approaches? Compared plans in the Triangle Region of North Carolina, USA

  9. Study Area Triangle Region — North Carolina — USA

  10. Approach Conservation Principles Inventory Data Habitat Mapping Random Selection Null Model Inventory- Based Plan Focal Species Plan Simple Plans

  11. Approach Conservation Principles Inventory Data Habitat Mapping Random Selection Null Model Inventory- Based Plan Focal Species Plan Simple Plans Test Against Inventory Data Effectiveness of each Plan

  12. Effectiveness Proportion of known species & communities of conservation concern protected by plan

  13. Effectiveness

  14. Natural Heritage Inventory Point location of species & communities of conservation concern Cataloged through the years from a variety of sources Data used for effectiveness test AND creating inventory-based plan

  15.  $$$$$$ Inventory-based Plan Based on Natural Heritage Inventory Considered species habitat needs and community extent Created a map of core conservation lands

  16.  $$$$$$ Inventory-based Plan

  17.  $$$$ Focal Species Plan Created by me & graduate students Focal species selected to represent landscapes & conservation threats Habitat modeled & mapped for each species Combined maps to create plan

  18.  $$$$ wildwnc.org animaldiversity.ummz.umich.edu www.birdperch.com www.owlpages.com Focal Species Plan Extensive undisturbed lands • Bobcat • Eastern box turtle Riparian & bottomland • Barred owl Upland • Ovenbird • Broad-winged hawk Mature • Pileated woodpecker

  19.  $$$$ Focal Species Plan

  20.  $$ Simple Plans Used simple conservation principles to identify forest land for protection

  21.  $$ Simple Plans • Used simple conservation principles to identify forest land for protection • Created two of each • Same area as inventory plan • Same area as focal species plan

  22.  $$ Simple Plans • Used simple conservation principles to identify forest land for protection • Created two of each • Same area as inventory plan • Same area as focal species plan • Avoids direct comparison of plans with grossly unequal areas

  23.  $$ Simple Plans • Used simple conservation principles to identify forest land for protection • Largest patches in region

  24.  $$ Simple Plans

  25.  $$ Simple Plans • Used simple conservation principles to identify forest land for protection • Largest patches in region • Largest patches in each county, then nearest

  26.  $$ Simple Plans

  27.  $$ Simple Plans • Used simple conservation principles to identify forest land for protection • Largest patches in region • Largest patches in each county, then nearest • Diverse forest types • Close to already protected areas • Close to wetlands & riparian areas

  28. $ Random Selection • All forest patches patches had same selection probability • Repeated 50 times • Average • 95% confidence interval

  29. Recap – Approach Conservation Principles Inventory Data Habitat Mapping Random Selection

  30. Recap – Approach Conservation Principles Inventory Data Habitat Mapping Random Selection Null Model Inventory- Based Plan Focal Species Plan Simple Plans

  31. Recap – Approach Conservation Principles Inventory Data Habitat Mapping Random Selection Null Model Inventory- Based Plan Focal Species Plan Simple Plans Test Against Inventory Data

  32. Recap – Effectiveness

  33. Inventory Beats Focal Species Inventory plan more effective & used less land … but more costly

  34. Inventory Beats Simple

  35. Focal Species Ties Simple

  36. Our Research Question Can simple approaches identify land for protection as effectively as complex approaches?

  37. It Depends … Inventory data needed, if only small amounts of land (≈5%) protected

  38. It Depends … Inventory data needed, if only small amounts of land (≈5%) protected Simple or random might work, if large amounts of land (≈35%) protected

  39. It Depends … Inventory data needed, if only small amounts of land (≈5%) protected Simple or random might work, if large amounts of land (≈35%) protected Generalization awaits further testing in other systems, BUT …

  40. There Seems to be a Pattern Most “effective” surrogate plans protected more than 35% of land Looked at surrogate approach “success stories” in literature Only considered cases in which plan tested against inventory data

  41. Interesting New Question Is there a threshold of land available for protection above which simple approaches are as effective as complex ones?

  42. Tempting Conclusions Inventory-based plans are best Simple plans are the way to go, if you’re protecting lots of land Focal species (and other surrogate) approaches have little value

  43. Tempting, but … We cannot support these conclusions

  44. Tempting, but … We cannot support these conclusions Limited measure of effectiveness

  45. Tempting, but … We cannot support these conclusions Limited measure of effectiveness Population viability not considered

  46. Tempting, but … We cannot support these conclusions Limited measure of effectiveness Population viability not considered Focal species plan considered reproduction

  47. Tempting, but … We cannot support these conclusions Limited measure of effectiveness Population viability not considered Focal species plan considered reproduction Reason to doubt random selection as effective as simple plans

  48. Conclusions (the real ones) • Inventory data appear necessary when little land can be protected • Unclear what to do if large amounts of land can be protected • Simple plans look good, but … … what about population viability? • Might be a protection area-threshold above which simple plans work well

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