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South Carolina Primary

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  1. South Carolina Primary Amber Lawyer

  2. Primary history • Founded in 1980 • 1 of 13 open Republican primaries in the US • The Republican nominee has never lost South Carolina http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&sugexp

  3. Past Republican Winners • 2008 John McCain 147,733 Votes - 33.15% • 2004 George W. Bush Uncontested • 2000 George W. Bush 53% • 1996 Bob Dole - 45% • 1992 George H. W. Bush 68% • 1988 George H. W. Bush - 49% • 1984Ronald Reagan - Uncontested • 1980 Ronald Reagan - 55%

  4. The Build up Remaining Nominees Support • Mitt Romney (1) • Rick Santorum (1) • Newt Gingrich • Ron Paul • Romney- leading nominee. • Gains support of Governor Nikki Haley. • Huntsman endorses • Gingrich gains endorsement of Rick Perry

  5. Build Up Cont. Conflict Super PACs • Romney’s financial situation • Gingrich’s ex-wife • Advertisements • Citizens United Supreme Court decision in 2010 allows for the funneling of money into political action committees. • Most money had been spent by super PACs for South Carolina • Romney has the largest super PAC (Restore Our Future) • Gingrich (Winning Our Future) • Rick Santorum (The Red, White and Blue Fund) • Ron Paul (Endorse Liberty)

  6. Super PACs Cont. • Spent to vilify other candidates through advertisements • Romney spent the most per vote $30 • Gingrich spent much less but his Super PAC made up the difference $20.56 http://www.google.com/imgres?q=Super+PACS+for+the+4+republican+

  7. http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/01/ad-war-update-5.htmlhttp://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/01/ad-war-update-5.html

  8. HUGE FACTORS IN SOUTH CAROLINA • Super PAC spending • Two Debates • 53% of Primary voters made their decision in the last few days • Media swings toward Gingrich after debates • White Evangelicals • Make up 63% of the electorate

  9. What is the electorate looking for? • To beat President Obama in November • To fix the economy • Independents (25%) • 49% Gingrich 41% Romney. • Out of 61%: 39%Gingrich 35% Romney • Gingrich 31% Paul 26% Romney 25%

  10. Results South Carolina • 100% reporting • Newt Gingrich243,172 40.4% 23 • Mitt Romney 167,297 27.8% 2 • Rick Santorum 102,061 17.0% • Ron Paul 78,000 13.0% • Others 10,685 1.8%

  11. Results Cont.

  12. Results cont. Newt Gingrich Mitt Romney • Middle of the pack • Affair scandal handled well at the debates • Rick Perry • Super PAC provided advertising money • Leader • Scrutiny of his personal finances • Pulls him away from middle class • Does poorly in debates

  13. What does this mean? Standings http://race42012.com/

  14. On to Florida Questions?