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A Review of CPC’s Monitoring Efforts for the CFS Reanalysis (CFSR) Presentation for the CFSR Science Advisory Board November 8, 2007
CFSRR – What is at stake for CPC? • A LOT!!! • At present, climate/ENSO, monitoring and prediction at CPC depends on CDAS1 (how old is the model ?) and CFS Reforecasts. • Once the new CFSR(R) is complete CPC would want to move to a new 1981-2010 (30 yrs) WMO standard base period. • CFSRR products will help us much with our Monthly/seasonal forecasts of - T/P over US, • Develop Objective, Model based: - NOAA hurricane Outlooks, - Drought Outlooks, • Monitoring and Prediction of Global Oceans/Global Monsoons! etc! • Quality of data set as compared to R1/R2 ? – as good an analyses as we can get. • CPC has extensive experience in monitoring R1/R2
CPC’s Monitoring Philosophy for the CFSR • Monitor for large scale errors against existing observational and reanalysis datasets (e.g., R1, R2, ERA40;…) • Alert EMC if consistent (or abrupt) deviations from observational and reanalysis occur !!! • Monitoring efforts will include: • Comparison of basic statistics (RMS, Correlation, …) • Spatial maps • Hovmöller diagrams • Monitoring of regional climate indices • Time series of global variables
Categorization of CPC’s Monitoring Efforts • Dedicated Monitoring Leads (with help from others in CPC) • Time series of basic statistics (POC: Wesley Ebisuzaki) • Stratospheric monitoring (POC: Craig Long) • Tropospheric monitoring (POC: Muthuvel Chelliah) • Surface monitoring (POC: Wanqiu Wang) • Ocean Monitoring (POC: Yan Xue) Note: Others in EMC and CPC have their monitoring requirements included via the respective POC
Schematics of Data Availability to CPC for Monitoring Available Data 1 Jan 1979 30 Sep 1979 On Sep 30 1979 1 Jan 1979 31 Dec 1979 On Feb 05 1980 1 Jan 1980 1 Feb 1980 5 Mar 1980 1 Jan 1980 On Mar 05 1980 Note: Dates in blue refer to date of the month the Reanalysis is currently at Dates in red refer to beginning and end dates of the Reanalysis data that is available for monitoring
CFSR Datasets Requested by CPC for Monitoring Efforts • Monthly means of all atmospheric variables contained in following datasets (available both at the original Gaussian grid resolution of 1152x576 and interpolated at 2.5x2.5 lat/lon grid) • PGB files (2.5 x 2.5 degree) • FLX files (T62 Gaussian grid) • D3D files • IPV files • Monthly means of ocean fields at 1x1 lat/lon grid
CFSR Datasets Requested by CPC for Monitoring Efforts –Contd.. • 6-Hourly datasets for the atmospheric variables (available both at the original Gaussian grid resolution of 1152x576 and interpolated at 2.5x2.5 lat/lon grid) • sfc. Pre, precipitable water, prcp, evap (hourly) • height at 5 given levels (200, 500, 700, 850, 1000) • temp at 12 levels (1,2,5,10,50,100,150,200,500,700,850,1000) • u-wind at 4 levels (1,2,5,10,50,100,150,200,500,700,850,1000) • v-wind at 4 levels (200, 500, 850, 1000) • omega at 1 level (500) • psi & chi at 4 levels (200,500,850,1000) • moisture (q) at 5 levels (1000,850,750,500,300) • PV at 3 levels (450,550,650K) • mslp, pwat, presfc • shtfl, lhtfl, u10m, v10m, prate, tmp2m, tmin, tmax, q2m, ustrs, vstrs, dlwsfc, dswsfc, ulwsfc, uswsfc, ulwtoa, uswtoa, soil moisture at 4 levels, gflux, snow depth, runoff, top soil temp (T62 Gaussian grid)
CFSR Datasets Requested by CPC for Monitoring Efforts – Contd.. • Daily datasets for the oceanic variables (available 1x1 lat/lon grid) • Depth of 20C isotherm • Ocean heat content • Sea level height • Sea surface temperature • Vertical velocity at 50-meter depth • Ocean Current (u,v) at 15-meter depth
Comparison Datasets Assembled by the CPC: Stratosphere • R2 • Temperature, Height, PV, U winds [100-10 hPa] • ERA40 (provided by EMC) • Temperature, Height, PV, U winds [100-1 hPa] • CPC Analysis • Temperature, Heights (50,10,5,2,1 hpa monthly fields) • Total ozone (monthly zonal means)
Comparison Datasets Assembled by the CPC: Troposphere • R1, R2 • Entire archive • 6 hourly, daily, monthly • All available levels • 1979-present • ERA 40 (to be made available by EMC)
Comparison Datasets Assembled by the CPC: Surface • R1 (rainfall, cloudiness, OLR, radiation fluxes) • R2 (rainfall, cloudiness, OLR, radiation fluxes) • CMAP (rainfall) • ISCCP cloudiness • SRB (Surface Radiation Budget) • Leaky-bucket soil model output • GLDAS (soil moisture, evaporation, runoff) • GDAS sea ice fraction and thickness • CPC T2m • NA Regional Reanalysis (NARR) (snow depth, 10-40, 40-100, 100-200 soil moisture) • NOAA OLR
Comparison Datasets Assembled by the CPC: Ocean • GODAS (monthly and pentad) • OI SST (monthly and pentad) • Altimetry seas surface height (1993-2007; monthly and pentad) • Oscar surface currents (1993-2007; monthly and pentad) • Ocean-Atmosphere Flux (WHOI; 1982-2002; monthly) • World Ocean Atlas 2001 (Climatology)
Monitored Plots: Statistical Comparisons • Time series – quick way to see problems, changes • goodness of fit (rms, correlation, maximum difference) to other analyses (i.e., reanalyses, observations) • bias (ex. look for satellite bias problems) maximum difference between adjacent grid points (gradient) looks for physical “reasonableness”, e.g., ocean should be ice covered but isn't will show as a large gradient in the surface temperature
Monitored Plots: Statistical Comparisons • These statistical comparisons will be broken down by • latitude band: global, 90S-60S, 60S-30S, 30S-30N, 20S-20N, 30N-60N, 60N-90N • land, water • Comparisons on daily, pentad (some obs), monthly data • The time series will span the monthly/yearly boundaries • Only a few of the comparisons will be plotted but will keep the data files for all the computed statistical comparisons.
Monitored Plots: Stratosphere • Time Series (refer to slides 12-13) • Temperature: Daily (12Z), NH, Trop, SH, zonal means :50, 10, 5, 2, 1 hPa • PV: Daily (12Z), NH, SH, zonal means : 450, 550, 650 K • Time Series—Indices • QBO winds: (10N-10S U comp ) : Monthly : 50, 30, 20, 10 hPa : For Entire Length of Each Stream • v*T*(40-70 N & S): Daily: 100 hPa : For Each Year • Spatial Maps (x-y) • Total Ozone : Monthly • Temperature : Monthly : 50, 10, 5, 2, 1 hPa • Height : Monthly : 50, 10, 5, 2, 1 hPa • Zonal Means • Temperature (P vs lat) : Monthly : 1000 – 1 hPa • U comp (P vs lat) : Monthly : 1000 – 1 hPa • Ozone Mixing Ratio(P vs lat) : Monthly : 1000 – 1 hPa • Hovmöller • The Following are to be Maintained for Entire Length of Each Year • Temperature (60-90 N & S) (P vs time) : Daily : 1000 – 1 hPa • U comp (60-90 N & S) (P vs time) : Daily : 1000 – 1 hPa • The Following are to be Maintained for Entire Length of Each Stream • Total Ozone (lat vs time) : Monthly • Temperature (lat vs time) : Monthly : 100, 70, 50, 30, 10, 5, 2, 1 hPa • QBO Winds (P vs time) : (10N-10S U comp) : Monthly : 100 – 1 hPa
Monitored Plots: Troposphere • Basic Time Series: a) 6-hrly – 1 month at a time: • As CFSR is compared with say R1 (or R2 or ECMWF) plot most statistical quantities, such as mean, rms difference, maximum difference, max gradient between successive points, etc. over the globe 2) same as 1) but for different latitude bands. b) Daily Time series – from beginning of calendar year to last day of current month -1 year (max) at a time: same as under a). c) Monthly time series – from beginning of each run stream (at least 4 years): same as a) – If possible this time series could be extended to cover the entire CFSR period. • Climate Signal Time Series—Indices: (PNA, NAO, 850/200 mb zonal wind indices over Nino regions, RSOI, EQSOI: based on CFSR monthly mean data as compared with the same from CDAS1 and CDAS2.
Monitored Plots: Troposphere (cont.) • Spatial Maps (x-y): a) Daily 3 panel map (CFSR/CDAS1/CDAS2) of selected variables such as 1) SLP, 2-3) 850/200 mb vector V, 4) 500mb Geop.H, 5) 1000 mb specific humidity q, – print cor/rms at top, b) Monthly mean 3 panel maps of selected variables (CFSR/CDAS1/CDAS2) c) Full Gaussian resolution maps of selected variables (nothing to compare) • Zonal Means (x-p x-sections):based on monthly mean data for (1000-10mb) u, v, T, H, and q(1000-300mb) – at lats Eq., 15 deg. N/S, and 45 deg. N/S - for CFSR as compared with CDAS1 and CDAS2. Diabatic heating rates (convective heating, moistening, shortwave radiation, longwave radiation) • Hovmöller (x-t; y-t x-sections): at Eq, 30 deg. N/S, and 60 deg. N/S. (for x-t plots), and at 0/90/180/270 deg. longitudes (for y-t plots) - based on daily mean data from beginning of calendar year – 500 mb omega, 850 mb q, 200 mb H from CFSR compared against CDAS1 and CDAS2, MJO (vel. pot.).
Monitored Plots: Surface • Time Series (for all variables as those for spatial maps; same frequency as the spatial maps) • Basic Statistics (see slide 12-13) • Global mean time Series (6-hourly without verification) • Dry surface pressure • Surface pressure • Precipitable water • Evaporation • Precipitation • E-P • Spatial Maps (x-y) (CFSR together with verifications) • Daily mean (North American: snow depth, 10-40, 40-100, 100-200 soil moisture) • Pentad mean (Global: precipitation, OLR) • Monthly mean (Global: precipitation, cloudiness, OLR, solar radiation, longwave radiation, T2m, evaporation, runoff, sea-ice fraction, sea-ice thickness, surface pressure)
Monitored Plots: Ocean • Time series – Mean, RMS, AC for each ocean basin (all variables listed under spatial maps, Monthly and Pentad) • Time series – Indices (Monthly and Pentad) • Pacific: Niño Indices; Heat content; Warm Water Volume; Taux • Indian: Dipole Mode Index; heat content; Warm Water Volume; Taux • Atlantic: TNA, TSA, TNA-TSA, ATL3 SST; heat content; Warm Water Volume; Taux • Coastal upwelling indices for California Current Ecosystem • Global and Regional basin average heat content, SST, SSH • Vertical cross sections of T, U, V, etc. at equator, 5N, 5S, 20N, 20S, 40N, 40S, etc. • Spatial maps (Monthly and Pentad) • Temperature, Salinity (5-2000m, selected levels) • Zonal current (15m); W (50m); heat content, D20C, SSH • Taux and Tauy; Latent and Sensible Heat Flux • Hovmöller Diagrams (Pentad) • Eq. Temperature; zonal current (15m); heat content; D20C; Taux, Tauy